Tornado Forecast for Monday

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This forecast has been updated as of 8:45am Monday. Please scroll up for the latest tornado forecast. 

Another day of dangerous tornadoes is forecast on Monday. It will be important to monitor the weather in the areas outlined below. 




Here is the color code for this forecast based on my 4-point scale. Note: the highest on my scale is an extreme risk which is not being forecast Monday. 
  • Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes..
  • Brown = a significant risk of tornadoes. 
Large or very large hail is likely over this same region.

Safety Recommendations

If you live in a mobile home or need a public shelter, you will find lists and maps here. Please check it now, before the threat of a tornado or extreme winds is imminent. If you have friends or family living in housing without an adequate tornado/extreme wind sheltering area, please give them a call and refer them to the public shelter site. 

I recommend the following safety measures:
  • Make sure your car is fully fueled. 
  • It is a good idea to have some extra cash in case of extensive power failures.
  • Your smartphone and laptops should be fully charged -- but disconnect them when you hear thunder to prevent damage from a potential power surge. 
  • If you have a chainsaw, make sure it is fully fueled. 
  • Be sure you monitor the weather Monday and Monday evening and have multiple ways of receiving warnings. If you have a weather radio, install fresh batteries. 
  • If you are new to these areas, Lisa Teachman (NBC) in Kansas, Joe Laurie (NBC) in Kansas City and Doug Heady (CBS) in Pittsburgh-Joplin and Mike Morgan (NBC) in Oklahoma City do great jobs.  

Forecast Comments for Meteorologists
My northern forecast differs from some with the addition of a "high" risk area from the Flint Hills to east of Kansas City. This is because of most models indicating strong difluence over the indicated area and the fact it is just south of the warm front. It has been my experience that this pattern can be quite favorable for tornadoes, perhaps strong. 

Some storm chasers and forecasters have expressed concern that rain/thunderstorms will occur in the red area before the supercell thunderstorms arrive. While a long period of heavy rain can be a negative, a period of rain is actually favorable for tornadoes -- including strong tornadoes -- because it lowers the LCL, temporarily reinforces the cap and then sets the stage for explosive development. 

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