It is terribly unfortunate the emergency manager(s) made the decision to sound the tornado sirens in the City of Kansas City.  My daughter was visiting a friend south of downtown KC and she let me know the sirens were going off. Where was the tornado? Twenty-five miles to the northeast with the tornado was moving away  from Kansas City! This is 1960's siren philosophy, "tornadoes are unpredictable so if we are going to sound the sirens in any part of the county, we'll sound them over the entire  county!" A report after the Joplin Tornado found the over-use of their tornado sirens was a factor as to why so many died.  Independence is an east suburb of Kansas City. This is ridiculous. It hurts the credibility of the warning system. It needs to stop!

Yesterday, a meteorologist wrote an opinion on Twitter/X that said (paraphrasing), "no one should issue their own tornado forecasts because it will cause confusion w/r/t the official forecasts issued by the NWS's Storm Prediction Center's (SPC)." Ironically, yesterday was also a day I disagreed with SPC. At 3:10pm, I posted this forecast for tornadoes. The SPC had no tornadoes whatsoever in the forecast for eastern Kansas as shown below. Earlier in the day, they weren't even forecasting ordinary thunderstorms in the area (not shown)  The tornado forecast below was issued by SPC at 8am yesterday. The tornado forecast below was issued by the NWS at 3pm. The Kansas tornadoes were in the "no chance of tornadoes (white) area." [update] The red triangles are the locations of tornadoes. The Ottawa and Spring Hill Tornadoes were both rated EF-2, that is defined as a "strong" tornado by the NWS. There was also a tornado near Pomona (documented by storm ...

The tornado sirens went off about 11:30 last night and you went to the basement for a good reason. An EF-0 tornado touched down near Lake Quivira and ended just barely into Missouri 1 mi. NE of Westwood Hills. A street is closed in Westwood Hills, it might have to do with picking up tornado debris. Fortunately, the tornado did not go any farther, otherwise it would have struck the Plaza. The tornado lasted 9 minutes. 

Photos by Kathleen Smith Undulatus clouds, which are a cloud type like cumulus or cirrus, appeared over the southwest part of the Kansas City Metro this afternoon. When they occur, they are spectacular. In this case, they were on the leading edge of a cluster of thunderstorms.  So far, those thunderstorms have brought limited moisture (mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain). More in needed but these are the amounts to 4pm. 

I see that Emily Blunt, one of my favorite actresses, is playing a Kansas City meteorologist in the movie " Disclosure Day."  I watched the trailer and saw a scientific error. I'm sure she doesn't want that. So, I hereby offer to coach Emily -- free of charge -- on weather science before her publicity tour for the movie.  Emily, just give me a call! 

On Sunday, October 18, at 10am, the Ruskin Heights Tornado Memorial will be rededicated. Please save the date.  You may recall the original was destroyed when a car slammed into the Memorial and destroyed it (above). The Memorial commemorates the May 20, 1957, F-5 tornado that killed 44 and injured 500+ in eastern Kansas (starting near Williamsburg) and moved across the south part of the Kansas City, Missouri, area. This was the type of tornado -- a violent storm in a densely populated area -- that used to cause 100+ deaths. But this was the first time the (then) Weather Bureau issued what would be called (today) tornado warnings.  Since the 1880's, the Weather Bureau had banned itself from issuing tornado warnings because they believed more people would be killed by panic rather than the tornado. Joe Audsley and Bob Babb, who genuinely believed they would be fired the next day, disobeyed the ban and warned their fellow citizens as the tornado moved toward the area. The Weathe...

In addition to an elevated risk of flash flooding , the brown area has a significant risk  of tornadoes late this afternoon and into tonight. Please monitor the weather in this area!

The red area has a 40 to 65% chance of flash flooding tonight.  If you have errands to run, I recommend doing them sooner rather than later (time 3:15pm) as thunderstorms are starting to develop in northeast Kansas. Please keep up on the weather if you live in the red-tined area.  Remember: the leading cause of casualties in flash floods is people trying to cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  The yellow stripe has a 15-30% chance of flash flooding.  The atmosphere is filled with moisture and a weak low pressure area aloft over western Kansas is slowly drifting east which should be the trigger from the storm. More than 5" of rain is being forecast over eastern Kansas. 

Taken by the author in Olathe, looking northeast. When you see meteorologists and others criticizing the people of Kerr County, Texas for not immediately evacuating when the first flood warning was received at 1:14am on July 4, here is a perfect example of the NWS’s flood warning credibility problem via an "areal flood advisory" in Olathe, Kansas, this evening.    Above is a photo, taken from Olathe, of a thunderstorm cluster moving over Kansas City. As I was starting to crop the photo to post on the blog, I was flabbergasted to see a NWS “flood advisory” for Olathe come out.   Here is the primary problem: While it may rain,  it isn’t going to flood in Olathe by 10:30, the time the advisory expires. The sky is blue  (look at the top of the photo). Plus, it has been dry in this area recently.      Next, while the list of locations included includes Olathe, the polygon does not. Which are people supposed to trust? Olathe is noted. The blue dot was m...

This forecast has been updated. Please click here for the update .  As of the present time (5:15pm Monday), thunderstorms are developing in Nebraska. Some of those will affect Kansas late tonight and Tuesday morning. There could be some isolated wind gusts to 50 mph. This forecast pertains to the afternoon and night hours from about 4pm Tuesday to 5am Wednesday.  Tornado Risk The orange area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes. Some could be strong (EF-2 or stronger. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. This risk will begin around 4pm and will increase into the evening.  Damaging Wind Risk The red, hatched area has an enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. The red area without hatching has an enhanced risk of gusts of 60 mph or stronger. The yellow area as a significant risk of 60 mph winds or stronger.  In the hatched area, there is a serious risk of destructive storms: tornadoes and damaging winds. Power outages are likely  and s...

The  Kansas City Star  yesterday ran a story about the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Kansas City (KC) operations. Specifically, the newspaper is concerned that, with the recent layoffs, the NWS will not be able to continue to deliver what I call “corporate welfare.” Screen captures from the story:   NASCAR’s Kansas Speedway Races National Football League Draft So, the  Star  is worried the NWS will not be able to continue to provide on-site corporate welfare.    The National Weather Service’s mission is, and has always been, to provide data, forecasts and warnings to the  public.  If a business (e.g., Kansas Speedway) can use that same data for their operations, great. But, if they need on-site meteorologists or other specialized services,  that is what private-sector commercial weather organizations are for.  The newspaper evidently believes there isn’t sufficient money in the NASCAR or NFL’s budget to hire a meteorologist for ...

This forecast has been updated as of 8:45am Monday. Please scroll up for the latest tornado forecast.  Another day of dangerous tornadoes is forecast on Monday. It will be important to monitor the weather in the areas outlined below.  Here is the color code for this forecast based on my 4-point scale. Note: the highest on my scale is an extreme risk which is  not  being forecast Monday.  Red, hatched =  high  risk of strong tornadoes.  Yellow, hatched =  enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes.. Brown = a significant risk of tornadoes.  Large or very large hail is likely over this same region. Safety Recommendations If you live in a mobile home or need a public shelter, you will find lists and maps  here . Please check it now, before the threat of a tornado or extreme winds is imminent. If you have friends or family living in housing without an adequate tornado/extreme wind sheltering area, please give them a call and refer them to ...

A number of counties in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas have been removed from the blizzard warning as the storm is moving northeast.  The color code: Orange = blizzard warning Gold = high wind warning Maroon = red flag warning (wildfire conditions) Pink = winter storm warning  Dark blue = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Brown = high wind watch More than an estimated half million people are without power.  Below is the radar at 4:38p. Blue is the snow falling with the blizzard with the darker blues corresponding to a higher rate of falling snow. Amber is the NWS's tornado watches. 

Wikipedia  If you are planning to attend the Texans vs Chiefs Saturday afternoon, please be prepared for very cold conditions. The temperature at game time should be about 25° with a north wind of 10-20mph which should make for a wind chill of about 11°F. Unfortunately, temperatures will be falling significantly during the game. Please make sure you are adequately dressed!   Note: In the extreme cold of last year's playoff game (about 20 degrees colder wind chill than being forecast for Saturday) fans lost limbs (especially fingers and toes).  Please take this seriously.

The story is here . The video is top right  after a commercial plays.  -- original post --  Regan Porter of Fox 4 Kansas City interviewed me this morning regarding the rebuilding of the damaged Ruskin Heights Tornado Memorial . She will also be interviewing the head of the Ruskin Homeowners' Association.  Regan says it will air between 4:30 and 6:30pm with a shorter version between 9 and 10:30pm. Hope you can tune in. 

Kansas City Star, 2010 The evening of May 20, 1957, a F-5 tornado struck the south Kansas City suburb of Ruskin Heights. I was a five year-old boy growing up in the area and was both terrified and fascinated by the events of that evening. My mother drove us through "ground zero" the next day. As a result, that very day I knew I wanted to be a meteorologist. The tornado also played a role in me meeting my future wife, Kathleen! In addition to I, Dennis Smith (formerly of The Weather Channel) and the outstanding storm researcher Les Lemon, who passed away several years ago, also were inspired to become meteorologists as a result of the tornado.  Meteorologists privately comment that F-5 tornadoes are so powerful they "clean up afterward." Here you see the home utterly blown away with only the commode left after the tornado. With the terrible loss of life, a memorial to the tornado victims was erected the next year. It was placed directly in the tornado's path acro...

The smiling face above belongs to Pat Carroll, the proprietor of Gallup Map in downtown Kansas City. He is holding a map I purchased from his store as a budding high school meteorologist in the late 19 60 's. I was driving through downtown KC a few weeks ago and was pleasantly shocked to see Gallup Map  Company was still in business. As a high schooler who wanted to be a meteorologist, I often stopped in to buy maps for plotting weather information. For the first time in 60+ years, I visited last week. They still have a great selection of maps, art and related materials. I wanted to purchase a quadrangle topographic map for part of Johnson County and, it turned out, the area I needed was covered by two maps. Patrick used his computer tools to splice the two together and I had exactly what I needed.  Storm Chasers:  He has a great selection of state Gazetteers.  It was great to see a family-operated business continue to flourish after decades in business. 

Kansas wheat ready for harvest. Move the Department of Agriculture to where farmers grow crops. As you are looking for ways to save money and make a refocused federal government run better, here's a suggestion: Disperse the Federal Government. Move much of it far outside of the Beltway. Here are some examples of where the shrunken departments should go: Department of Agriculture to Kansas City or Wichita Department of the Interior, Denver* Department of Transportation, Chicago You get the idea. In addition, Congress should suspend civil service regulations so that good people move and the less productive are given a "buyout."   The use of government jets needs to become the exception rather than the rule. Cabinet secretaries should fly first class commercial. When they do so, they should pass through the same TSA nonsense the rest of us have to go through. The advantages of this are vast. Let's consider the ag department: Having Agriculture department employees in tou...

The Tornado Watch Has Been Replaced by a  Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4am -- original posting -- A tornado watch is in effect until 11pm. 

It looks like tomorrow will be a major tornado and severe thunderstorm day in the Midwest. I recommend people start planning accordingly. There is a high  risk of damaging storms. Tuesday's Tornado Risk There is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes  in the yellow, hatched area. There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area.  Tuesday's Damaging Wind Risk Here is the color code for this forecast: Purple: a high risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. Red, hatched: there is an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Red (only): an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  Yellow: a significant risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  There is also the risk of large hail in the above areas. A derecho may occur. Please factor this forecast into your plans Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Yesterday's forecast , unfortunately, worked out pretty well. It is almost certain there were more tornadoes in Kansas than sh...