I am providing updated info on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert .  There is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes today.  While over a small geographic area, this is a significant update from the forecast earlier today. The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong ( ≥ EF-2) tornadoes. The brown are has a significant risk of tornadoes of a lesser intensity. Here is a zoom-in on the area with the greater risk in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.  Please keep up on the weather throughout the afternoon in these areas. 

This forecast has been updated as of 8:45am Monday. Please scroll up for the latest tornado forecast.  Another day of dangerous tornadoes is forecast on Monday. It will be important to monitor the weather in the areas outlined below.  Here is the color code for this forecast based on my 4-point scale. Note: the highest on my scale is an extreme risk which is  not  being forecast Monday.  Red, hatched =  high  risk of strong tornadoes.  Yellow, hatched =  enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes.. Brown = a significant risk of tornadoes.  Large or very large hail is likely over this same region. Safety Recommendations If you live in a mobile home or need a public shelter, you will find lists and maps  here . Please check it now, before the threat of a tornado or extreme winds is imminent. If you have friends or family living in housing without an adequate tornado/extreme wind sheltering area, please give them a call and refer them to ...

Today's Realities and the Future of the National Weather Service On April 2, an ominous, powerful tornado churned through the Arkansas countryside toward the town of Lake City. As it made its way toward the city, storm chasers posted photos and increasingly dire on-the-scene reports. Per ABC News’ chief meteorologist Ginger Zee, the Lake City tornado siren sounded and local TV was warning the residents of the town to take shelter. According to Ginger and Dr. Craig CeeCee, an expert in public sheltering, at least one of the town’s shelters was filled to overflowing. At least one private sector weather company, AccuWeather’s business group, issued an independent tornado warning for the city.    The strong EF-3 tornado came and went, destroying or damaging more than 50 buildings and temporarily making a mockery of the town’s motto: “Peace, Quiet, Home.” But, there was great news: no deaths and no serious injuries.    The only entity Lake City did not officially hear fro...

I stayed up to get you the latest rainfall amount forecast for the next 48 hours (12:30a Friday).  Yes, that is another 7-9 inches in the amber area from now until 7pm Saturday evening. Catastrophic flooding is forecast by the National Water Center in a band from Ft. Smith and Mena to Louisville.  If you live in an area which has flooded before, it will likely do so with this "historic" (NWS) flood event. It is necessary to be able to leave on short notice if an evacuation is ordered or if you observe rapidly rising water. Keep in mind the 100% cause of flood deaths is driving or walking through a flooded area.  If you are a logistics manager, forget about getting long haul shipments via truck or rail through this region the next few days. 

For the day before, the area in red represents a much higher than usual forecast of strong tornadoes. I'm providing this notice so everyone can prepare accordantly. 

There is still a severe thunderstorm watch for the Hawaiian islands circled; this is from Oahu to Maui. The line of strong thunderstorms continues to move east. It is producing damaging winds and flash flooding. However, none of the thunderstorms appear to be tornadic at this point. Waterspouts associated with supercell thunderstorms occurred over and near Kauai this morning. Radar at 1:15pm HST. The National Weather Service is forecasting a significant risk of tornadoes in parts of the South tonight.  The area in brown is where SPC believes a signifiant tornado threat exists. Please monitor local weather information in case warnings are issued.  This will be my last update on the tornado risk tonight.

---- Please note: this forecast has been updated.  The newer forecast is here . ---- --- original forecast below --- A winter storm watch is in effect for much of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma. This is updated from this morning.  The winter storm watch includes the DFW Metroplex as well as Little Rock and Shreveport.  Below are my preliminary snowfall amounts.... The snow in north Texas should begin Thursday afternoon and spread north and east thereafter.  Temperatures are going to be bitterly cold. Please make cold weather preparations now!!

Here is the tornado forecast for the rest of the night (till 6am CST). Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Blown = significant risk of tornadoes.  This will be the last update of the night. Tornado Watch until 2am. Please make sure you have ways of getting warnings of tornadoes and 80 mph winds.  6:15pm  NWS believes the chances for tornadoes and damaging winds are increasing in Mississippi. They also say they are going to extend the tornado watch to the east later this evening.  5:35pm: The northwest part of the tornado watch has been cancelled Here is the area where tornadoes are more likely from 4:30 to 7:30pm. From Atmosphere Analytics Rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch till 9pm If you live in these areas it is vital  to monitor the weather until the watch expires at 9pm  Note the forecast is for "numerous strong tornadoes." A very rare "particularly dangerous situation" ...

Storm coverage is over for Thursday evening.  Saturday may see a significant tornado situation. Please check back tomorrow and Saturday.  ---- Please note the tornado watch is forecasting  strong tornadoes.  8:45p, tornadoes are in progress in the north half of the tornado watch. Please continue to monitor the weather.  -- 12:50p Update -- Please keep up on the weather in these areas. I will be posting updates on Twitter/X from time to time @usweatherexpert .  Please note: A strong tornado or two is possible.  10:50am Update The yellow area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. This forecast is from the NWS Storm Prediction Center. I believe the risk of strong tornadoes should also include the area from Lewisville to Lake Charles by this evening. The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes later today.  The more intense thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and continue through the evening as they move from east to wes...

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes on Thursday. There is even the possibility of a strong tornado or two. So, please keep an eye on the weather if you live in this area. Of course, I will update the forecast tomorrow morning. 

Newest Tornado Watch As mentioned below, it turns out the chance of tornadoes south of my red outline has increased. Please keep an eye on the weather in this region the rest of the evening..until midnight. My Forecast Until 8pm I believe there will be several tornadoes yet this afternoon and evening in the red outlined area. Please continue to monitor the latest weather information for possible warnings. There is also a lesser risk of tornadoes in the Texarkana to Paris to Tyler area. It would be wise to keep an eye on the weather in that area, also.  Forecasting note for meteorologists: Since the mid-1970's, we've known that scattered supercells ahead of a line are a favored area for tornado formation. That is probably going to be the case this evening.  New Tornado Watch, 1:35pm 2:20pm Update Two independent forecast techniques indicates that the risk for tornadoes is rapidly increasing in the outlined area. This includes southeast Kansas which was not highlighted in other...

Because there is a chance of tornadoes Monday morning, as well as during the more frequent afternoon and evening hours, I'm posting this special tornado outlook.  There is an enhanced risk of strong  tornadoes in the yellow hatched area. This includes Table Rock Lake in Missouri and Bull Shoals in Arkansas.  It also includes Gainesville and Sherman as well as Dallas in Texas. The unhatched yellow area (Missouri) includes Ft Leonard Wood as well as Lebanon. It means there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes, generally of lesser intensity. The brown area = significant chance of tornadoes, including Mexico and Boonville (MO), Pittsburg (KS), the rest of the DFW Metroplex, and Tyler and Lufkin. During the morning hours, if you are in this area and live west of I-35, it will be important for you to keep up on the latest local weather warnings.  For the rest of the area, the threat will be enhanced during the afternoon and nighttime hours.  Of course, I will update in th...