The "Weather War" and Winter Storm Forecasts

Because of the controversy pertaining to the forecasts of last weekend's storm, we are going to review our performance with links so you can judge for yourself. 

The amount of controversy churning in mainstream media as well as social media regarding the forecasts of last weekend's winter storm continues. This is especially the case as a new, and major, winter storm is in its early stages for the Carolinas and surrounding region. The gist of the criticism is that irresponsible forecasters are making it difficult for the public to distinguish between legitimate storm warnings and hype. I agree that can be a problem. 

The stories out of Nashville and other more rural areas through Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana, which are still suffering from last weekend's ice storm are tragic and heartbreaking. The death toll from this storm is now in the vicinity of 150 with a surprising number of people having frozen to death even in places like New York City. 

Hype-Free Forecasts

I have always called this blog the home of "hype-free forecasts." You do not see 12 day hurricane forecasts, nor 3 day site-specific tornado warnings or other nonsense here. You do see cautions about others' hype forecasts. For example, this past Monday some were forecasting a major blizzard (remember you have to have heavy snow and high winds of 35 mph or more for it to be a "blizzard") up and down the East Coast from South Carolina to Maine this weekend. We wrote Monday (below) while warning of heavy snow in the Carolinas region. 

The Cold Wave

With regard to the lingering effects of this past weekend's storm, we forecast the extreme cold starting the 19th!  There were daily maps like the one below that showed the advance of the extreme cold along with a preliminary map showing the path of the weekend snow up the Ohio Valley.

Ice Storm Forecast

Finally, I want to talk about the terrible ice storm. It distresses me to read the media coming out of Nashville implying that no one was telling them what was coming. 

We began forecasting the ice storm on the 20th. Because I was concerned people would not realize how bad it would be, we included photos of historic ice storms with several of the forecasts. We said preparation was "absolutely necessary" and we explained how to prepare. 

Starting on the 22nd, we began running the SPIA Index in addition to forecasting the amount of ice. We emphasized the following:

Note that both forecast levels called for multi-day power outages! We even recommended preparing a Go Kit in case homes would have to be evacuated due to the long duration of the outages as well as making recommendations so airline travelers could route around the storm.

Considering that (to me) ice storms are the most difficult weather phenomenon to forecast, the ice storm forecast was remarkably good. This link will take you to a comparison of the ice forecast versus what actually occurred. 

I've been forecasting extreme weather for more than 50 years. I do this as a public service because I want to bring the benefit state-of-the-art weather science to the public. Nothing in meteorology is perfect and I make incorrect forecasts at times. But, the forecasts presented here for last weekend's storms were of very high quality and should have been used to mitigate the storm's worst effects. 

We invite you to make your friends and relatives aware of these forecasts for future plans.