Overnight Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Risk - 9:45pm

As predicted (see below), a cluster of thunderstorms will develop over this area and will move northeast during the night. This watch is in effect until 4am Saturday

My detailed forecast is below. 

Through Tonight
There is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes in western Kansas (details below) after 2pm and the risk will last until around 1am.

There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes in northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma after 9pm and continuing overnight. They are not likely to be strong (of course, all tornadoes are dangerous).

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.

I have expanded on the Kansas forecast (2pm until 1am) below:
The hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The red area has a high risk of a strong tornado. Apologies for my lack of artistic ability. I have extended the enhanced tornado area a bit farther to the east and, especially, northeast near the predicted location of the warm front. 

I will have updates this afternoon and tonight on Twitter @usweatherexpert. May I recommend that your friends and family follow me?

If you need a community shelter, you can find one here

There is a forecast of 2-3" hail in the hatched area. The rest of the area in yellow has a risk of 1" or larger hail.
Note: I will post forecasts for Friday and Saturday early this afternoon. However, the existing forecasts (below) are still in the ballpark. 


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