[4:30pm Update] Central U.S. Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

Below is my forecast for the area of greatest concern regarding tornadoes, which could be strong. 

However, this is what meteorologists call a "conditional threat." The confidence that thunderstorms will even form is lower than average. But, if they do, they could be powerful with tornadoes, giant hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. I think the area is safe from violent weather before 7pm. 

The threat should taper off by around 2am. Of course, I will update this later this evening. 

The first tornado watch of the day is out.

A second tornado watch is expected to be issued in the region outlined below.

In between the areas highlighted above, there is an art of central and southwest Kansas where -- if any storms can form -- they have the potential to produce strong tornadoes. That is the yellow, hatched area. 

Farther south, the brown area is where a significant tornado risk exists, but it is of a lesser nature and will not materialize until around sunset or after. 

It is critical to monitor the weather in these areas, especially in the tornado outlines and then later tonight in other parts of Kansas as strong tornadoes, in darkness, can be deadly. 

A severe thunderstorm watch, with the possibility of tornadoes, has been issued for southwest South Dakota, one county in Wyoming and two counties in Nebraska until 10pm Mountain time.