Review of Forecast Accuracy

With some of the data taking a surprisingly long time to come in, the tornado forecasts were considerably better than I first thought. 

April 1
Below is the overall forecast from the Storm Prediction Center. It is an over forecast in the hatched area which forecasts storm intensity. As far as I can determine none of the tornadoes were EF-2 or stronger, so that aspect was incorrect. 

I added a supplemental forecast to attempt to emphasize where there was a higher probability of tornadoes. 
Based on additional tornado paths, the supplemental forest was quite good. There should have been a second supplemental forecast in the Lower Ohio Valley but I did not catch that. 

Overall, I would rate this forecast a B for geography and a D for intensity. 

April 2
This forecast, too, has improved with the addition of more tornado paths. The original forecast with tornado locations is here.
Originally it appeared, like April 1, there were no tornadoes stronger than EF-1. Now, at least one tornado, and possibly two, were EF-2. So, the hatching (intensity) part of the forecast verified. 
Above is the probability verification and it was quite good. I'd rate it a B+.

So, the forecasts were significantly better than they first appeared.


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