2:45pm PDT Saturday: Catastrophic Flooding Still Forecast for Southeast California

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Scroll up for later information.  

Afternoon Update Regarding the Effects of Hurricane Hilary

Note: if you live west of The 405 in Los Angeles County, conditions will be a bother rather than a crisis. Elsewhere, please take this information seriously and plan accordingly. 

I'm going to present the output from two high resolution computer models because they have again upped the amount of additional rain (beyond what fell this morning) associated with what will be the remains of Tropical Storm Hilary. 

HRRR Model

3km NAM
Either of these forecasts, if correct, would cause catastrophic flooding in the California desert. 

NWS Human Forecast
This forecast, made without the benefit of the latest computer models, features rainfall forecasted to be a bit less heavy than the newer computer model forecasts. These amounts would still cause serious flooding.

And, the human forecast for the Southwest.

Life-threatening flooding is likely in the purple area Sunday and Sunday night.
Above is updated as of 2:30pm PDT and is valid until 6am Monday. At this moment, the heavy rains of this morning have ended, but they will increase again this evening or tonight. Once they start again, it is  vital that travel not be undertaken in the purple area. 

There is also a significant threat of tornadoes Sunday in the green tinted area.

While wind gusts will be high, the predicted speeds have been lowered significantly. 

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