Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Evaluation of Forecasts of Hurricane Idalia

This is our routine self-evaluation of the forecasts we present on this blue when major events occur. 

The fact the forecasts for Idalia, at least as presented on this blog, were quite timely and accurate is important given some of the silly comments the last couple of days contending that hurricanes are less predictable due to global warming. 

One Week Before Landfall

Six Days Before
and, then, 

Four Days Before

The forecasts unfolded normally after that time. 

One forecast of note was the forecast of power outages. 

That was the forecast. Here are the power outage maps as of a few minutes ago. 

If anything, I underforecast the extent of the power outages. It will be days before everyone is back online. 

I would rate these forecasts an "A."

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