This is the season when derechoes -- violent windstorms that can travel hundreds of miles -- become more frequent. They are notorious for causing widespread power outages.  We are also officially in hurricane season.  Please make sure you are prepared. 

In addition to the blizzard from the northern Great Plains to the Great Lakes, there is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes in the area in yellow in the South.  Scroll down for Monday's outlook.  It is time to ensure you are prepared for power outages and for sheltering in case a tornado warning is issued.  Not only is there the inherent risk presented by tornadoes, in this case the risk will be enhanced because of their fast movement along the ground; meaning you may have less time than usual to take cover if a tornado warning is issued for your area.  The yellow area is within a larger area of significant tornado risk (brown). The hatching means that if a tornado occurs, it could be strong (which meteorologists define as EF-2 or stronger).  The risk in the area from Chattanooga and Atlanta south to the Gulf will be after midnight Eastern time.  Damaging Wind Risk The area in pink has a high  risk of thunderstorm generated wind gusts of 60 mph or str...

Addition at 11:15am Monday. This is the NWS's product which shows the total amount of ice. The white star in northern Mississippi is where the greatest amount of ice accumulated, 1.24" just east of Oxford, Mississippi. Compare to the map below which was ice effect's forecasts five days  in advance. Note: the ice from Virginia to New Jersey fell in the time interval beyond the range of the forecast below.  While this forecast wasn't perfect (West Virginia's ice would be forecast in later versions of the forecast), it provides lots of time for utilities to bring in crews from around the nation to speed the recovery.  -------- original post -------- This is the forecast on this blog Wednesday . It is from the NWS and where they expected the worst effects of the pending ice storm. This, via AccuWeather is where the power outages are the worst at this time (Sunday afternoon). At first glance they don't look the same because they are different base maps. But if you c...

The ice storm, unfortunately, continues as forecast. Roughly 2.5 million people are without power. Those numbers will continue to rise. In Nashville, 91% of the homes and businesses are without power. 

8pm CST Radar  Power Outages as of 8pm These are "customers," individual homes or businesses. The total number of customers out due to the ice storm is around 126,000 =  313,000 people.  National Weather Service Winter Storm Messages, 8pm A new ice storm warning has been issued in central Texas and the winter storm warning has been extended in Maine.  Violet = ice storm warning  Pink = winter storm warning  Purple = winter weather advisory Dark blue (Maine and LA-MS border) = winter storm watch Bright blue and Very Dark Blue = cold weather warnings  I just saw a great tip posted by an electrical lineman deployed to work this storm: If your power goes out, turn on your porch light when it comes back on. That lets crews know which areas have power restored and speeds up the recovery process.  The snow in the Great Plains is, so far, less than forecast. There are two issues: the Gulf moisture is not coming into the storm as fast as originally forecas...

This map shows how long it took for each county affected by Helene to get back to 95% of the homes and customers back to having power. In some cases, it was months before everyone had power again.  This storm took 176 lives directly and another 71 indirectly. The total of 247 contained the trend of mega-disasters that seems to have begun since 2010. 

The Netherlands joins Spain, Portugal and France. This is a direct result of installing wind (especially) and solar rather than nuclear, gas and hydro to lessen carbon emissions.  Are we paying attention? I don't think so, unfortunately. 

Oklahoma has around 45,000 without power with the rest in Texas. 

4pm This Afternoon (Friday) until 7am Saturday Using my 4-point scale, here is the color code for the three risk levels presented: Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes.  Brown = significant risk of tornadoes.  To the south of the brown line, there is the serious danger of overnight tornadoes.  Below is the wind forecast, which is also dangerous! Above is the forecast for damaging winds. Color code: Purple =  high risk  of thunderstorm-generated winds of 75 mph or stronger. Red = enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow hatched = significant risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow = significant risk of 60 mph or stronger. While I cannot say exactly where, it would not surprise me if wind gusts reached 85-90 mph from north Texas (including the Panhandle) through Kansas and Oklahoma west of U.S. 75. Blowing dust is likely in the central and southern Plains west of US ...

As of 8:20am, blizzard warnings (orange) continue with a winter storm warning (pink) also in effect. Gold is a high wind warning. Purple is a winter weather advisory. Sand is a wind advisory. The blizzard is fierce. You would be far better off staying home until it passes. Numerous roads have been closed.  The map below depicts current power outages. From Texas, east, the outages are primarily due to yesterday's line of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. From Kansas and Missouri, north, the outages are due to the blizzard. Keep in mind that "customers" = number homes and businesses. About 800,000 people  are without power. 

Extreme Winds Likely; Power Outages Likely!! Wind gusts up to 79 mph are forecast in northeast Kansas and up to 70 mph southeast Nebraska.  Blizzard warning (orange) in effect this evening and tonight, high wind warning (gold) elsewhere. Do not try to drive, especially a high-profile vehicle, this evening in the blizzard warning area. On I-70, there's a good chance you could be blown off the road. That may also happen on I-80. Now is the time to prepare for likely power outages that could last hours or days: Fully charge your smartphone and laptop. Have fresh batteries for your flashlights If you have a chain saw, in case trees fall, fill it with fuel. Fill your car, especially if it is electric, with fuel. I will update again this evening. 

Extreme cold is moving into the Lower 48 states. In addition to travel and  logistics issues, I am concerned about power outages.  No change in this forecast indicated as of 3:30pm CST. The NWS watch/warning maps have been updated.  Above is a forecast of below normal temperatures (i.e., -40.0 = 40°F below normal) for Tuesday night. The extreme cold will move south and east. As of 3:30pm Sunday, here's a depiction of National Weather Service watches/warnings: Color code: Orange = blizzard warning Pink = winter storm warning Light brown = high wind warning  Bright green = flood warning  Dark blue = winter storm watch  Purple = winter weather advisory  Dark brown = high wind advisory  Here is a map of current power failures (3:30pm): There are more than a million people  without power.  Let's focus on the central U.S. as the snow and cold event will cause major  disruptions.  Starting Monday, heavy snow will begin with plummeting...

I'm going to cover the stupid, bad and the humorous before beginning forecasting for the Texas snow storm.  The Stupid Whose bright idea was it to use a WEA message to tell people the roads are bad and to stay home?!! WEA ("wireless emergency alerts") are supposed to be, and are promoted as, strictly for life-threatening situations. See below. To BLAST everyone with that obnoxious tone more than 24 hours after the storm began is not  life saving -- it was old news. I would be much more empathetic had they done this during the mid-morning Sunday before the winds really came up; that would have helped prevent people from getting on the roads. But, at our home, we had 2.5' drifts across our driveway when the WEA alert came -- we couldn't go anywhere if we wanted to. The above is just one of the many comments on Twitter/X. I didn't see any that thought it was a good idea.  My original fear, which has been amply validated, was that WEA would morph from life-saving...