Florida Update - No Immediate Tropical Threat

By -
Update 6:20pm EST:
There are those continuing to post that a tropical storm will affect Florida this week. While I tend to be a conservative forecaster, I just don't see it for the reasons below. Yes, heavy rain is possible (see map) but I don't see a tropical storm. I will continue to monitor the situation and will update should the data indicate, will not hesitate to change my forecast. 

----- original post ----
There has been a lot of chatter on Twitter, primarily among amateur meteorologists, with regard to a tropical system forming this week and affecting Florida and/or the Bahamas. 

I would like to reassure my readers that I do not see it. 

Here is the forecast rainfall for the next five days. Note the heavy rain forecast for the western Panhandle.
As longtime readers know, I do not attempt to forecast tropical storms beyond about five days. While some of the models show low pressure developing in the western Caribbean toward next weekend, that is very speculative. 

I'll keep an eye on it but I don't want residents of the Sunshine State to spend time worrying about this. I'll update later in this week.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

[1:10am Update] Tornado Forecast for Rest of the Night

By -
Image
Thank you  for coming to read my tornado coverage from Saturday and Saturday night. As there were about 100,000 brand new readers, please allow me to introduce myself. I the retired Sr. VP of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions and retired Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. Specialized for 50 years in extreme weather forecasts and warnings. I invite you to bookmark this site:   https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/    Timely forecasts of tornadoes, floods, blizzards and hurricanes are provided. On slower weather days we talk about global warming, science and issues of interest to society. On Sundays, we usually lighten things a bit. For real-time storm warning bulletins, you can follow me here:   @usweatherexpert .  Thanks again  for reading! ---Last night's Coverage --- After 16 straight hours, I must call it a night. All of the information below is current as of 1:10am. Thank you for reading and goodnight.  As of 12:35am, much of south central Oklahoma has no electr
Read more

First Tornado Watch of the Day Issued

By -
Image
Unfortunately, the forecast is working out. A tornado watch is already in effect in Oklahoma and Texas.  This watch is in effect until 1pm.  Thunderstorms are developing in the southeast Texas Panhandle. They will move northeast and strengthen. Please keep a close eye on the weather in these areas.  I'll have comprehensive forecast up in 60-90 minutes.
Read more

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more