Sunday, November 12, 2023

Florida Update - No Immediate Tropical Threat

Update 6:20pm EST:
There are those continuing to post that a tropical storm will affect Florida this week. While I tend to be a conservative forecaster, I just don't see it for the reasons below. Yes, heavy rain is possible (see map) but I don't see a tropical storm. I will continue to monitor the situation and will update should the data indicate, will not hesitate to change my forecast. 

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There has been a lot of chatter on Twitter, primarily among amateur meteorologists, with regard to a tropical system forming this week and affecting Florida and/or the Bahamas. 

I would like to reassure my readers that I do not see it. 

Here is the forecast rainfall for the next five days. Note the heavy rain forecast for the western Panhandle.
As longtime readers know, I do not attempt to forecast tropical storms beyond about five days. While some of the models show low pressure developing in the western Caribbean toward next weekend, that is very speculative. 

I'll keep an eye on it but I don't want residents of the Sunshine State to spend time worrying about this. I'll update later in this week.

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