Another Major National Weather Service Miss

Because I wanted to concentrate on providing our readers with the best possible Thanksgiving weather information, especially for those traveling, I did not comment on an awful National Weather Service (NWS) forecast made this past Tuesday. I want to take a moment to do so now. 

National Weather Service Hazards Map
The NWS portion of the product is at the bottom, NWS Hazards Prediction (defined at 4" or more regarding snow) for 3 to 7 days in the future. The forecast was valid from this past Friday through the weekend to the 28th (Tuesday). The NWS was not forecasting any snowfall amounts of 4" or more anywhere in the Lower 48. As you see, I wrote "I strongly disagree" at the top. The forecast on this blog, posted 2 hours earlier than the NWS's, clearly forecast heavy snow in the central Great Plains and Rockies:
That heavy snow would fall over this region was a straightforward forecast. That the NWS would blow it this bad -- during the #1 holiday weekend for travel -- is unfathomable. I present my forecast because the Director of the NWS accused me of "Monday morning quarterbacking" in Fox 4's report (see below). In most all of the cases I present, I issued warnings before the NWS. But, that doesn't matter. It is the NWS's job to make correct storm warnings and forecasts in critical situations. 

The map of actual Kansas snowfall is here. We had the very rare situation where I-35 was closed to southbound traffic because of the snow and traffic accidents. 

Earlier this month, Fox 4 Kansas City did an investigative report pertaining to the serious issues the National Weather Service is experiencing with its tornado warning program. I hope this awful snow forecast is not an indication of additional issues. 

My book, Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather, is filled with praise for the modern National Weather Service. It is one of the few federal agencies that is truly essential. But, its problems seem to be multiplying and the NWS appears to be in denial. 

That's why the U.S. needs a National Disaster Review Board modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board. Otherwise, additional lives with be unnecessarily lost and disaster damage will skyrocket. 


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