Sunday, November 5, 2023

Some Thoughts on Mid-November Forecasts

I don't know if it is because Thanksgiving is the 23rd this month or what, but there are a lot of meteorologists commenting online about the weather in the period from the 15th through 20th and their forecasts look rather odd to me, specifically those who are forecasting drier than average condition in the west half of the nation during that period of time. 

This is just one of the forecasts which has raised my concern.
Others on social media are talking about "persisting drought" in the West during this same period. 

While forecasting beyond 5-7 days this time of year is risky, I'm not coming to those conclusions. 

Using the 500mb control ECMWF, the top map is valid at 6pm on the 16th. The bottom map is valid 6pm on the 20th. Neither is a recipe for dry conditions in the west half of the country.

Similar results come from using the Canadian and the UKMET. As is often the case, the U.S.'s GFS model is an outlier, which may be the reason for the odd forecasts. Personally, I do not find much use for the GFS for extended period forecasts. 

Usually, I don't comment on forecasts this far out. But I don't want early Thanksgiving travelers to be mislead by "its going to be dry" and then getting in trouble because they don't check back. I'll keep an eye on this over the next two weeks. Please check back. 

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