Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Heads Up: California

Our readers in California are going to receive heavy rain starting on about the 14th and continuing through Thanksgiving. The first Pacific "atmospheric river" of the season is going to establish itself in what could be the start of a very wet winter. 

Over the Sierra, more than four feet of snow may fall. 

Here is a precipitation map from the European model which is a rough estimate of the amount and locations. 

No part of California currently in drought. So, heavy rains -- assuming they occur -- are more likely than average to turn into flooding. 

Because this could be a very wet winter, I would like to remind everyone of the dangers implicit in "high risk" flooding forecasts. 
While only 4% of flooding forecasts are for "high risk" conditions, during those periods 40% of flood fatalities occur and 80% of the damage. 

Of course, we will provide complete coverage of this and later flood situations as they occur. 

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