Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Election Day: From the "Magical Thinking" Department

In case you doubt that it is impossible to run the electric grid from wind + solar + batteries, this will dispel your doubts

Yes: it is impossible, at any cost, provided we want to keep electrical energy at current reliability levels and given the current state-of-the-art. 

There is also an outstanding essay published by The Telegraph yesterday pertaining to the magical thinking that permeates politicians' and Big Climate's goals pertaining to 'green' energy. A couple of excerpts:

In recent weeks, some analysts have begun to predict that peak EV adoption could happen in the next 2-3 years and top out at just 10-12 per cent of the total vehicle fleet. Distressed automakers like Ford and GM have recently announced cancellations in some big investments in plant and equipment and year-long delays in new factory openings and new model introductions. 

In addition, Panasonic is in the early phases of building an electric vehicle (EV) plant in northeast Kansas. While I have had no contact whatsoever with anyone connected with the plant, I predict it will either open late or not-at-all as EV demand is dropping rapidly (see above). 

With the cost of replacing the battery of an EV at $5,000 to $15,000 (more for trucks) -- an amount few EV owners have yet had to deal with because of their relatively new status -- the value of EV used cars will likely drop. 

Another Telegraph excerpt:

Last week, Danish wind developer Orsted said it was cancelling two major projects, the Ocean Wind 1 and 2, off the coast of New Jersey after its demands for higher subsidies had been rejected. In its earnings release, Orsted said it was recognizing impairment losses of DKK 28.4 billion, which equates to roughly $4 billion USD, blaming “adverse impacts relating to supply chain delays, increased interest rates, and the lack of an OREC adjustment on Sunrise Wind” for the need to take the write-down. BP and Equinor, two major oil companies also engaged in offshore wind development along the U.S. Northeastern coast, announced impairments of their own of $540 million and $300 million, respectively. 

For those unfamiliar with industry jargon, the term “OREC adjustment” refers to Offshore Wind Renewable Energy Certificates, a classic green cost-shifting scheme in which local, state or the federal government pays wind developers an agreed-upon fee for each megawatt of power they build and deliver in locations favored by those governments. Those fees end up being worked into the utility rates paid by electricity consumers as part of an array of hidden charges on their monthly bills.

With several additional projects under development off the U.S. Atlantic coast, Orsted’s cancellations bring the future of the Biden Administration’s ambitious goals for offshore wind development into question. This is especially true since the Orsted announcement came in the wake of a lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico for wind development that attracted just a single bidder for a tract off the coast of Louisiana, and no bidders at all for tracts off the Texas coast. [emphasis mine].

As a person who lives in an area where wind power is is predominant, this and other schemes have caused our electric rates to skyrocket. People who say wind energy is "cheap" are badly misinformed or just lying.  

We can, and should, decarbonize energy. That can be done by reliable nuclear and hydro, the latter where practical. But, Big Climate wants power and money -- and those can only be attained by dragging out the process. Many areas have elections today. Consider this when you go to the polls. 

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