A Small, But Messy, Winter Storm

I promised an update on this storm. Right now, it appears the forecast locations are approximately correct but amounts are a bit on the high side. [10:15am Thursday]

Total Snowfall

I've spent more than an hour looking at the raw data and this particular model looks like it has a good handle on the situation. That said, keep in mind a band of snow can aways shift a bit in any direction. 

Total Freezing Rain
This model often exaggerates the amount of freezing rain. However, its placement is usually pretty good. I would divide the amounts by two. 

Because this is a rather complicated situation, I've provided snapshots of the forecast radar to give you a rough idea of the timing of the snow and ice.

Forecast Map for 8pm Thursday
Please recall the darker the blue, the heavier the rate of falling snow. Green is rain and yellow/red are possible thunderstorms. 

Forecast Map for 2am Friday

Red is freezing rain, the darker the heavier rate of rainfall. 

Forecast Map for 7am Friday
At this time, a heavy rate of falling snow is forecast from southern Iowa to the Milwaukee/Chicago area and past Grand Rapids in Michigan. A few flurries linger over Kansas.

Forecast Map for 6pm Friday
In response to a weak low in the upper atmosphere, a second band of snow is forecast to develop over the same region except slightly farther south which would graze Kansas City and provide more snow in the Quad Cities and Chicago during Friday night. 

I will update the forecast tomorrow. 


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