Saturday, October 27, 2012

Could It Happen Again?

Flooded LaGuardia Airport, November 25, 1950; Photo Queens Library via WeatherUnderground
If a 1950 Nor'easter can flood LaGuardia, can Sandy? Could JFK be flooded? The answer may be "yes" based on some of the storm surge models I am seeing.

I'm not attempting to be alarmist -- I am attempting to get your attention. With the worst-case storm intensity and location, this type of flooding is certainly possible. You'll see surge forecasts for NYC at the end of this posting.

Here is an updated NOAA forecast, based on the newest (12Z Saturday) GFS model showing major flooding at Battery Park in Lower Manhattan. This forecast -- if exactly accurate -- jeopardizes the NYC subway system.

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