Saturday, October 13, 2012

Update on Severe Weather Outlook

Here is the significant tornado parameter (an objective, model-based forecast) valid at 5pm given that a strong thunderstorm is in the area. If you are in the gold area south of U.S. 50 in Kansas south through Oklahoma and into north central Texas, pay attention to the weather this afternoon and evening!

With regard to my storm chase, I continue to like my initial target (see below):
The dry air continues to make its way northeast. Towering cumulus clouds are lining up (yellow arrows) as the upper level low moves into western Kansas. Alva, OK's temperature has climbed to 77° with a dew point of 68° which indicates plenty of instability is present.

Farther south, the NWS Storm Prediction Center says there is a 80% chance they will issue a tornado watch for southwest Oklahoma into Texas.

So, conditions continue to be favorable for tornadoes in the region.

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