Saturday, October 13, 2012

Preliminary Chase Forecast

One element of successful storm chasing (the public should NOT engage in storm chasing!) is to have a preliminary target area. I'm planning to cover the area outlined in red.

The area with the yellow arrows represents drier air coming out of the High Plains and clearing skies there. That is bad. Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes occur with direr air intruding from the west at about ten thousand feet. 

We are just starting to see breaks in the clouds at the Smith House. As the sun starts to heat the area, the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable. Then, as the upper level low in eastern Colorado moves into the area, violent thunderstorms will likely result.

Note: The entire area outlined for tornadoes below is at risk, so please keep up on the weather in these areas. I'm simply letting those that wish to follow me when I chase this afternoon where I plan to be. 

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