Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Tornado Update

There have been numerous reports of tornadoes, numerous reports of large hail and a report that 2-3 storm chasers died in a traffic accident this afternoon.

Here is the radar at 5:36pm.
The red polygons are tornado warnings and the yellow polygons are severe thunderstorm warnings for damaging winds and hail. The tornado watch (below) continues in effect.

Amazing Time-Lapse:

This gorgeous video, from storm chaser Chad Cowan, shows a supercell that appears to produce a tornado, get overrun by a line of thunderstorms. The video was taken over the Black Hills of South Dakota.
Supercell Merger - 4k StormLapse from Chad Cowan on Vimeo.

Tornado Watch: Texas and Oklahoma

Please note that there is a "moderate" chance of a strong tornado. There is also a moderate chance of hail at least two inches in diameter.

Another Serious Tornado and Hail Risk

Here we go again.

We have an enhanced risk of tornadoes today.
The 5% area (brown) is the significant threshold for tornado risk with includes Oklahoma City and the DFW Metroplex. The 10% area includes Wichita Falls and Lawton. It is important that people in these areas monitor the weather at the first sign of the approach of a thunderstorm. The AccuWeather App does an excellent job at providing severe weather warnings for your location. 

Very large hail is also likely -- a repeat of Sunday only farther west.
On the hail map 15% (yellow) is the significant threshold. As you can see, there is a high risk of thunderstorms producing large hail in the 45% area. The hatching means hail could exceed 2 inches in diameter! Needless to say, put your car in the garage along with anything else you wish to protect.

I'll update on these risks later today.

Monday, March 27, 2017

Thank You!!

A meteorologist in Tulsa was my 7,000th follower. Thanks to him and to the other 6,999 of you!!!

Rainfall Forecasts 8.5 Days Out

Here is one more set of model forecasts of rainfall amounts. In this case, I am showing 8.5 day forecasts because the last 1.5 days of the forecast runs are shown to be more or less dry.

GFS Forecast
 CMC Forecast

ECMWF Forecast

Below, I show how much rain has already fallen during the change in weather pattern from dry to wet. And, yes, nine days from now I'll post graphics to show how accurate the forecasts were (or were not).

How's That Rain Coming Along?

Here is the rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 7 this morning.

And, here is the precipitation since the change in weather pattern began:
More is on the way! Updates later this afternoon.

Tornado Risk Today

Unfortunately, we have another day with a significant tornado risk.
The 5% (brown) area is the significant threshold. This includes Memphis. 

Please keep up on the weather in this area later today. 

I suspect I'm going to be posting one of these for Oklahoma and Texas tomorrow. Stay tuned. 

Some Thoughts From Another Climate Scientist

Dr. Roy Spencer just wrote, pertaining to global warming,

Why has the public lost interest? The reasons are many.

For example, most of the world’s population experiences many tens of degrees of natural temperature variation, yet they are asked to fret over two degrees of warming on time scales so long almost no one would notice it in their lifetime. The observed rate of warming has been about half of that predicted by the average climate model, and the climate model average is what guides energy policy.

Furthermore, the models do not produce realistic natural climate variability without considerable fudging and tinkering to fit the observed temperature record. As a result, we really aren’t sure recent warming isn’t partly or even mostly natural in origin. (Our study of ocean warming since the 1950ssuggests about 50% each)...

My opinion tends toward the little-impact end of the spectrum [of global warming's effects]. I suspect that future warming will be slow and relatively benign (say, 1.5 deg. C by the end of this century), severe weather events won’t become demonstrably worse, and slow sea level rise will continue roughly as it has for centuries. People will adapt to whatever slow changes occur. 

And renewable energy (or maybe safer nuclear energy) breakthroughs will come from the private sector and market forces, not from legislative fiat.

His entire column is here. And, yes, Greenpeace has admitted they do not tell the truth.

Sunday, March 26, 2017

The Hail Was as Bad as Forecast

Fortunately, the tornadoes were not.
Thunderstorm moving toward the Smith House this afternoon.
There were so many huge hail (≥2") reports (black symbols) you can't begin to see them all on this map. More will be posted tomorrow. The only tornado (red) was east of Ada, OK.
Goodnight, everyone!

Tornado Watch Just Issued For Oklahoma and North Texas Until 11pm.

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of central Oklahoma and north Texas (the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex is included) until 11pm.
The area I'm most concerned about for tornadoes is from around Pauls Valley in southern Oklahoma to around Gainesville in northern Texas and one county on either side.

The first thunderstorm is developing southeast of Duncan, OK. on the 4:07pm radar. It should begin moving northeast.

Sunday: 2pm Severe Weather Update

Dear Readers,

I continue believe (see below) that there will be tornadoes and severe thunderstorms with very large hail as indicated below.

I don't expect anything major before 3 to 3:30pm, so if you want to ran an errand in the affected area, now is the time to do it. After that time, please keep up on the weather at the first sign of a thunderstorm's approach.

I'll update again when I think things are beginning to develop.

Mike

Major Hail and Tornado Threat

While it is in a geographically concentrated area, there is an important tornado and very large hail threat in parts of Oklahoma and Texas.

Tornado
From the Kansas border to the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, there is a significant chance of tornadoes with an enhanced chance in southern Oklahoma from around Norman to just south of the Red River. I recommend people in this region pay attention to the weather later today.

Very Large Hail
It is a "put your car in the garage day"!
The significant threat level on this map is 15% (yellow) and, as you can see, the threat is 45% from near Perry to DFW. The hatching means the hail could be larger than 2 inches.

I'll update on these threats later today.

Sunday Fun: A Bonus From the California Rains

In addition to ending the drought and fixing the water crisis (and, yes, creating some soggy salads), California will greatly increase hydroelectric power. This means zero carbon emissions at no cost and cheaper energy for the Golden State.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

How Much Rain Has Fallen So Far?

Here we are, into the third day of the extended period of rain for the Great Plains. The rainfall amounts, so far, are below.
The yellow areas have had more than two inches. There is a tiny spot in eastern Colorado with three inches. Of course, my house had 0.08 inches.

More rains to come.