Saturday, March 28, 2020

3 Tornado Watches in Effect

There are three tornado watches in effect as of 4pm CDT.

If you live in this region, please keep up on the latest weather information.

Note: this will be my last forecast pertaining to this situation. Please continue to follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert . 

"Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch

This tornado watch is in effect until 9pm. According to the NWS SPC, there is a "high" risk of strong tornadoes. As discussed earlier, the tornadoes will move rapidly, especially in Missouri and Illinois.

There is also a conventional tornado watch for much of Arkansas along with parts of the Missouri Bootheel.

If you live in these areas, now is the time to start monitoring the weather. 

Update on Today's High Tornado Risk in Midwest

Forecast Update 11:45a
The forecast tornado risk has been increased for eastern Missouri.
Otherwise, the Midwest forecast (below) is the same. 

-- original posting --
Here is the SPC's updated tornado forecast for today and this evening. Here's what the colors and hatching mean:
  • Hatching = risk of violent tornadoes. 
  • Brown = significant risk of tornadoes.
  • Yellow = enhanced risk of tornadoes.
  • Red = high risk of tornadoes. 
These tornadoes will be fast-moving, so you will need to move quickly if a tornado warning is issued. The tornadoes may move as fast as a mile a minute. 

This is the most ominous tornado forecast for Chicago in at least six years.

If you have friends or relatives in this area, please make sure they are aware of the threat. You will need to respond quickly tomorrow if a tornado warning is issued.

Where should you shelter?

Things to do now to prepare:
  • Turn your television to a trusted meteorologist and leave it there. Don't channel-hop. That might cause you to miss essential information. 
  • Turn on your NOAA Weather Radio and make sure it has adequate batteries. 
  • Set up a tornado alarm
  • Clear out your shelter or other safe space. Put in a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, a couple of diapers. 
  • Make sure you are wearing shoes when you enter the shelter and have a way to protect your head.
  • Now, put your car in the garage along with any items that can be blown about.
  • Take surgical masks, if you have them, into a public or semi-public shelter since you may be crowded together. 
Please note: I do not live-blog tornadoes. I do provide additional information on Twitter:@usweatherexpert. 

Friday, March 27, 2020

- High Tornado Risk For Saturday and Saturday Evening -

This situation is the most ominous in several years 
in this region. 
These tornadoes will be fast-moving, so I am providing this preparedness information tonight. If you have friends or relatives in this area, please make sure they are aware of the threat. You will need to respond quickly tomorrow if a tornado warning is issued. The tornadoes may move as fast as a mile a minute. 

Where should you shelter?

Things to do now to prepare:
  • Turn your television to a trusted meteorologist and leave it there. Don't channel-hop. That might cause you to miss essential information. 
  • Turn on your NOAA Weather Radio and make sure it has adequate batteries. 
  • Set up a tornado alarm
  • Clear out your shelter or other safe space. Put in a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, a couple of diapers. 
  • Make sure you are wearing shoes when you enter the shelter and have a way to protect your head.
  • Now, put your car in the garage along with any items that can be blown about.
  • Take masks into the shelter since you may be crowded together. 

Updated Tornado Forecast For Friday Night

The red area has a significant risk of tornadoes between 9pm and 6am. I have revised the forecast to eliminate Oklahoma and the parts of Kansas west of the Flint Hills.

It is important, if you are in the red outlined area, to have fresh batteries for the weather radio and to implement the "tornado alarm" and take both to your bedroom so you will be awakened if a tornado warning is issued. Note: these storms will be fast-moving. So, act quickly if a warning is issued.

Serious Tornado Risk in the Midwest Saturday

This forecast, by the NWS SPC, looks like it is -- unfortunately -- right on the money Saturday and Saturday evening.

The tornado risk is designated by colors and hatching. Let's break it down:
  • Brown = significant tornado risk. This includes St. Louis and Indianapolis. 
  • Yellow = enhanced tornado risk. Hatched area = violent tornado(es) possible. This includes much of Chicagoland. 
  • Red = high tornado risk with violent tornado(es) possible. This includes Peoria and the Quad Cities. 
Especially in Missouri and Illinois this is an all-day tornado risk (i.e., there could be tornadoes in the morning). Now is a great time to make sure your weather radio is working and/or you have your "tornado alarm" set up. 

Also, please make sure your shelter area is ready to go. You may wish to move any vital family keepsakes or data into it. Prestock it with a couple of water bottles and, if necessary, diapers. 

Note: It is the official opinion of public health officials that, if a tornado warning is necessary, worry about the tornado first (the immediate threat) and then coronavirus. So, if you have a friend/family who lives in a mobile home or doesn't have a basement, it is better to let them share your basement than to strand them in a dangerous tornado situation. 

Addition. Below is a close-up map of the highest risk area.

Tornado Forecast For Tonight

Forecast Cancelled. Scroll Up
For Update
This is one of the most difficult forecasts I have made in several years. The ingredients seem to be coming together to support the chance of nighttime tornadoes in the area I have outlined.

This is a perfect opportunity to make sure your weather radio is working with fresh batteries and to activate your tornado alarm.

In a bit, I'll have a forecast up for the serious tornado risk for Saturday in the Midwest.

Weather Update

As of 10a Friday, there is a risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms tonight in the Great Plains and again Saturday in the Midwest.

I will have updated information early this afternoon. Please check back.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Just Shut Up, Already!

National Geographic
Big Climate will never stop. It is relentless in its quest for power and money. And, the fact they are using children as propaganda tools demonstrates the lengths to which they will go to attain their goals. We cannot give them power.

Small Business and Washington

President Reagan knew that small business was the lifeblood of the economy and did everything he could to empower it. I started WeatherData, Inc., my highly successful commercial meteorology company, in the first six months of his administration.

After he left office, about all I, and my entrepreneur friends, got from Washington was request for donations. I remember one day, with severe weather in progress and as I was on the forecast floor, picking up the phone (after my assistant said it was urgent) and it my was congressman asking for a rather large donation.

You may not be aware of "party dues." It is the system where a new congressmen arrives at the Capitol, is sworn in, and is immediately in debt. The amounts of money are in dispute but I am told for the newest members is around $150,000/year. If you raise more, you get better committee assignments, et cetera. So, to a large extent, all of the fund raising calls are understandable.

In the current crisis, it is vital that small business bounce back 100%. I have my doubts.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

One More Time: Don't Take Photos on Railroad Tracks

I am appalled that Associated Press published this photograph  yesterday. Those are active railroad tracks (you can tell by the polished rails). Over and over and over people die needlessly because they are on, or are very close to, tracks. Please don't be one of them!

Something an Enemy in a James Bond Movie Would Do

Don't these people ever watch James Bond movies?

Don't they ever watch a disaster movie that begins with a warning from a scientist not to do something?

Seriously: we don't know how to control the weather and I guarantee there will be serious, negative, unintended consequences if this is done. Decreasing earth's temperature seems to increase the amount of storminess around the world.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Upgrade to Tornado Risk This Afternoon and Tonight

NWS SPC has upgraded the tornado risk area and sharpened it a bit. The yellow area is an enhanced risk of tornadoes and the hatching means strong tornadoes are possible.

The brown is a significant risk of a tornado.

Please keep up on the weather across this area the rest of today and tonight. 

Please follow me @usweatherexpert on Twitter for updates.

Today's Tornado Risk

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Please monitor the weather as the day progresses in this area.

Thank You, Thank You!!


Monday, March 23, 2020

Severe Storm Outlook

Update: Please cancel the forecast below. 
Any threat of violent winds has ended. 

There is a marginal chance of thunderstorms with damaging winds and, literally, a brief tornado or two in the area outlined. The tornado threat will not occur until near and an hour or two after sunset.

There is a chance of scattered areas of large hail over much of Kansas tonight.

This is a Very Real Concern to Me

comment on Twitter about the coronavirus social isolation
Agree completely. Months from now, when all of this is over, President Trump will need to take a look at all of this nonsense, including the TSA, but now is not the time.

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Stuck Inside? Two Great Books Available in E-Book Form

On top of the coronavirus raging, we are moving toward the peak of tornado season, with tornadoes forecast in a small part of the Great Plains Monday (I'll cover that on the blog tomorrow). Since your local bookstore may be closed, both of my books are available in print or e-book. If you don't have a Kindle, you can get the free Kindle Cloud Reader. With the Kindle Reader, you can use your computer to read the books just like paper copies. 
My book, Warnings, may be the perfect book for this crisis. It is the uplifting story of how heroic meteorologists risked their reputations and careers to build the tornado, hurricane and aviation warning systems that save literally thousands of lives each year. The link will take you to the e-book version which contains extra photos we couldn't get into the print version.

When the Sirens Were Silent is the story of the 2011 Joplin Tornado and how the rare failure of the tornado warning system. That failure caused the storm to become the worst killer tornado in the modern era.

If you like this blog, I think you'll like these highly rated books. 

From Twitter: Two Perfect Responses

And, the second...

No, That's Not How It Works

No, Daily Mail, in the United States, generals do not govern the nation if something happens to the President and Vice President. There is -- in law -- a succession list if something were to happen to President Trump (e.g., he died from COVID-19). Here is the list of Presidential succession.
For years(!) I have been advocating dispersing the federal government (see here, among many others). The abundance of good reasons for doing so is only enhanced by  COVID-19. For example, Sedgwick Co. (which includes Wichita) has a population of 513,289 and yet has just a single case of COVID-19 while, at the same time, hospitals are seriously threatened from Washington to New York. If the Department of Agriculture was here (as I propose), the Secretary of Agriculture, who is in the line of succession, would be able to function more easily than his counterparts in the District of Columbia as it is unlikely a crisis would affect all locations of the United States simultaneously.

Finally, this type of headline plays into the (inaccurate) stereotype of President Trump.
I seriously doubt the President has even seen this proposal. If it is anything like what is described in the article, Attorney General Barr needs to shoot it down, immediately.