Friday, January 18, 2019

Their Spectacularly Wrong Forecasts Never Affect Their Confidence

Sunday, I posted the infamous "Snowfalls Are a Thing of the Past" article. Here's another (h/t Ross McKitrick), published in 2004.
It is from Great Britain's Guardian. Read the item below and remember, all of this was forecasted to have occurred by the end of this year:
"Major European cities sunk beneath rising seas"? "Britain plunged into a Siberian climate"?
As I write this, there is a climate meeting in progress in -- cough, cough -- Breckenridge. Note that these are held in resort areas: Bali, Montreal, Cancun, Paris, Milan, etc., etc. While the rest of us are supposed to be cutting our carbon footprints, the climate alarmists fly across the world, enlarging theirs. Have scientists involved in climate never heard of Skype?

This "settled science" has many more characteristics of a religion and a political movement than science. 

As Glenn Reynolds puts it, I'll believe global warming is a crisis when those telling us it is crisis begin acting like its a crisis. 

Chasercon '19 Agenda

The agenda for Chasercon '19, to be held in Wichita the weekend of February 8-10, 2019, is out. The conference will held at the Hyatt Regency downtown. Chasercon is the largest meeting of storm chasers, storm tourism companies, and meteorologists who focus on tornadoes in the United States. There is still time to register and get the special room rate. The Hyatt is an outstanding hotel.

Friday evening, February 8
6-9pm: Ice Breaker, Preregistration and Vendor Visits!!

Saturday, February 9
7:30 – 9:00 – Registration, continental breakfast and welcome comments – Roger and Caryn Hill
9:00- 9:30 – Accuweather
9:30 – 10:30 – Dr Jason Persoff, Should We Just Stick That Back In?
10: 30 – 10:45 – Break 
10:45-11:45 – Dr Greg Forbes, Tornadoes Off The Beaten Path
11:45 – 1:00 – Lunch on your own
1:00 -2:00 – Tim Marshall, The 2018 Season, Chasing Solo
2:00 – 2:15 Break with snacks
2:15 – 3:15 Law Enforcement Panel, Including Reed Timmer
3:15 – 4:15 – Roger Edwards, The Truth About Chasing for Science
4:15 – 6:00 – On Your Own, Visit With Vendors
6:00 – 8:00 - Banquet Buffet Dinner
8:00 – 9:00 – Mike Smith, Keynote, Storm Chasing and Tornado Warnings = 47 Years of Success
9:30 -11:00 Video Night!!!! Bring your videos on a thumb drive. Each video must be less than 10 minutes long or it won’t be played!

Sunday, February 10
8:30 – 8:45 Chasercon Announcements, STAY TUNED FOR AN IMPORTANT UPDATE!!!! 
8:45 – 12:00 – Jon Davies, Forecasting Class!!! 

Thursday, January 17, 2019

I Am SO Glad I Am No Longer a Meteorologist on Television

I retired from television meteorology in 1993. Two years before, during the coverage of the Andover, Kansas, Tornado (which killed 17) I had to deal with a viewer calling in to gripe that our coverage was
ruining her enjoyment of an NBC tabloid program called Hollywood's Lost Youth which exploited men and women who were stars when they were young and then got involved with drugs, etc., as adults.

Today, with social media, it would be exponentially more difficult to be on television. The following moved on Twitter, about five minutes apart, earlier this afternoon.
Ginger has the patience of a saint.

And, I've had the exact conversation below with various people on too many occasions to count.
I'd love to know where the concept of "deceptive meteorologist" came from. It is ridiculously common. It is especially difficult to be a woman meteorologist on television.

Betsy and Ginger, if you come to Wichita for Chasercon, the alcohol is on me!!

The Northridge Earthquake

FEMA images.
The lower image is of a collapsed freeway bridge. 
Twenty-five years ago was the devastating Northridge Earthquake. Fifty-seven people died. There is video of the coverage from KNBC TV (Los Angeles) here. Like the "Miracle on the Hudson," it is an example of a "low probability/high impact event."
I also wish to thank the Wichita Eagle for printing my column on this topic in today's business section. It is recommended reading for those who manage mission critical businesses. It is at the blue link above.

With the AFC/NFC Championships This Weekend... is a fascinating story about what life is like for people at the bottom of the NFL rosters. These immensely profitable teams need to do a far better job of taking care of their people.
Kansas City Chiefs photo
That said, 
Go Chiefs!

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Flu Risk Ratchets Up

I'm sure you've seen the articles about the flu ratcheting up across the nation.

Here is the Diseasecast flu risk map as of 8am CST.
If you live in the red areas, please increase your precautions against flu. You will find the very best prevention products here.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

The Ultimate Danger of Faustian Bargains

I keep reading about the passenger screening 2+ hour delays because of a minority of TSA officials not coming to work during the federal shutdown. Now, Delta is unhappy about the money they are losing.
Bottom line: This is Delta's fault (good luck getting an airline executive to take responsibility for their actions)! You see, before September 11, the airlines paid for their own security. After, they were happy to unload that cost onto the government. But, that is now coming back to bite them.

They didn't have to do it. See the map below? It is a map of airports that have private sector screening rather than the TSA. They are not experiencing shutdown-related delays.
Atlanta, Delta's #1 hub, could have been one of them.

The headline below is what brought all of this to mind.
That story is here. Related story here. This is likely the faustian bargain of all faustian bargains. If you think Facebook is 'donating' money to local news out of the goodness of its heart, I've swampland in southern Georgia I would like to sell you.

Business Lessons From the "Miracle on the Hudson"

The "Miracle on the Hudson" occurred ten years ago today.
While this is a human interest story, there are lessons for business leaders. Here are a few.
  • Captain Sullenburger was a superb example of the power of hiring people with an appropriate aptitude and then training the heck out of them. Aptitude is a vital, but undervalued, ingredient to success. 
  • The power of teamwork. Take a look at the video, here. It takes just seconds for the emergency exits to open and escape rafts to appear. Why? The crew initiated the evacuation instantly. They knew exactly what to do not just because they trained; they rehearsed. Rehearsal is vital for mission-critical functions!
  • Airlines, and their passengers, learned the hard way in the 1970's and 80's that "cockpit resource management" was and is vital. Planes crashed because, to take one notorious case, all three pilots were troubleshooting an erroneous warning light and -- in clear weather -- allowed their jumbo jet to fly into the Everglades. Why? None of the three remembered to fly the plane. One hundred one people died. If you have seen the movie, Sully, you watched Captain Sullenburger say, after the bird strike, "My aircraft!" and First Officer Skiles replies, "Your aircraft!" There must be no doubt who is in charge during a crisis. 
Want to learn more about managing "low frequency/high impact" events? Just contact us!

"Warnings" At Amazon Fixed

There have been technical difficulties with Warnings listing at Amazon for about the past week. They are fixed.

"Wichita Promise"

The members of the Rotary Club of Wichita were treated to a fascinating presentation pertaining to
Wichita Promise, a program created to move people to Wichita (expenses paid!), train you in aviation or health, and give you a guaranteed job interview. It is a successful program that can be of great benefit. Details are here.