Tropical Storm Matthew

Tropical Storm Matthew is strengthening in the Caribbean.

Undoubtedly, you are going to be reading a lot of about Matthew the next few days because once it turns (see map above), it is going to move into the vicinity of the United States. However, the range of uncertainty is higher than usual as to the storm's future location. To amuse you, here is a plot of computer models' locations.

There's nothing wrong with this: any potential landfall in the United States is more than five days away and we do not claim any skill in forecasting beyond that time interval. So, I would like to caution our readers that there will undoubtedly be a lot of hype early in this process.

We'll provide -- free of hype -- forecast and safety information if the need presents itself.

Middle Atlantic Tornado Risk

There is a tornado risk later today in the Middle Atlantic Region. It is depicted in brown.

This includes Washington, DC, Richmond and Raleigh. Please pay attention to the weather later today and this evening.

Note: There is also a flood risk over the next two days in the northern part of this area.

A Brilliant Comment From Glenn Reynolds

It’s not really settled science until you can reduce it to engineering.

Ever Tried MinuteCast?

A handy guide for using AccuWeather's excellent MinuteCast.

New AccuWeather White Paper is Out

This white paper covers the topic of flooding. You can read or upload a copy here.

Forecast of Flooding: How Did We Do?

All week, we warned of the possibility of flooding in the 

Great Plains and Upper Midwest. 

How did we do?

Here is a map of river gages along primary rivers. I think you'll agree the location of the flooding

corresponds well to where we forecast the heavy rain (scroll down to peruse the various forecasts). The flooding is serious in a number of areas, especially Iowa.

Various headlines from the Cedar Rapids "Gazette"

The heavy rains are not over. Parts of Texas (reds and dark grays) will receive more than 3" (locations approximate) over the next two days.

Again, weather science in general, and the forecast team at AccuWeather in particular, provided excellent preparatory information for people in areas threatened by

Sunday Fun: The National Weather Museum

Long overdue... and I congratulate the people in Norman for making it a reality.

It is located at:  1200B West Rock Creek Road in Norman. Zip is 73071. Please check it out the next time you are in central Oklahoma.

Why Radar is Crucial in Flash Flood Situations

Here is some current data from the Kansas Mesonetwork (a special grouping of weather stations run by the State of Kansas).

I put a W over Wichita. The KS Mesonet is great. But, you could never have enough constantly reporting rain gages to make sense of data like this.

However, if you add the rain gage data to dual-polarization radar, it makes sense. Here is a radar measurement of rainfall that shows 1.15" over the mesonetwork site in southeast Sedgwick County. The turquoise and greens represent a narrow band of heavy rains (up to 2", so far) with much lighter rains in gray.

While dual-polarization data is excellent, it is not perfect. At AccuWeather, we use the radar and rain gage data to cross-check the other to insure accuracy.

By the way, to learn more, there is a great book on how meteorologists issue the critical storm warnings we all depend on.

Short Time-Lapse of This Evening's Thunderstorm

Tropical thunderstorms in northeast Wichita with heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning.

Well Said

Heads Up: Football Fans

Lightning and rain are going to be a problem!

These are approximations of what the radar will look like. The yellow and red areas will have heavy rain and, likely, lightning. Prepare accordingly!

Here is the current AccuWeather Regional Radar.

Here is the forecast radar for 4pm.

And, for 8pm the storms extend farther south so here are two maps.

Global Warming is Good? Some Others...

...have had the same ideas you have been reading here. Article about fewer major storms.

Still Concerned About Flooding

This is the area where we at AccuWeather are forecasting heavy rains, sometimes accompanied by lightning (football fans, beware!) Saturday and Saturday night.

As you get into Texas, the rains will be heavier and last longer. Please plan accordingly.

A Book You Need to Read If You Are Interested in Tornado Safety

Tornadoes occur in the United States all months of the year. That is why it is vital to have effective plans when a tornado threatens. Unfortunately, a great deal when wrong in the Joplin tornado of 2011. When the Sirens Were Silent tells the story of what went wrong and how to fix it. The book includes tornado safety rules for home, for business, and for schools. We priced it inexpensively at $2.99 because we believe it is important for you to read this book!

As one reader posted at Amazon:

5.0 out of 5 starsI just read an accurate description of what I experienced that day.

Format: Kindle Edition|Verified Purchase

Mr. Smith's timeline and reporting of the warnings received is spot-on. 

Tornadoes Occur in Every State

If you were following me on Twitter (@usweatherexpert), you saw a couple of tweets about a storm near Ogden, Utah that concerned me. Here is the hook echo that was near South Ogden.

And, there was a tornado along with separate reports of 81 and 75 mph winds.

So, it doesn't matter where you are in the USA. If the right set of conditions develop, a tornado can occur.


ADDITION: Photo from the Ogden Standard-Examiner.

They also report that 33,000 homes and businesses are without power.