Current Weather Warnings and Advisories

• The dark purples are hard freeze warnings. 
• Light blue is a freeze warning
• Blue is a winter weather advisory for light snow accumulation
• Pink is a winter storm warning for heavier snow accumulations 
• Magenta is a fire weather warning (red flag warning)

The 30th Anniversary of the Wichita-Andover Tornado is One Week From Today

Duke Evans

I have been working with the Wichita Eagle on special coverage of that terrible tornado which will appear in print and online this Sunday. There will be a print story telling the story in chronological order along with a video. 

That tornado has been ranked by one researcher as the 5th strongest tornado since quality records began in 1950. While the tornado tragically killed 17, that was a small fraction of the number of fatalities that would have occurred without the storm warning system. 

There will also be some additional coverage here on the blog as to the meteorological aspects of the storm.

Palmer Drought Index, April 10, 2021

The latest Palmer Index shows the excessive wetness and soil moisture has increased a bit from the Oaarks to the Mid Atlantic coast when compared to the March 26 values. Wetness has increased a bit from Nebraska to Wisconsin. 

There is little change to the drought in the West. 

Right now, the biggest threat to the 2021 winter wheat crop is current temperatures and temperatures through noon Wednesday rather than drought. 

New Review of "Warnings"

Here is the new Amazon review:

Kevin Denton

5.0 out of 5 stars The story of men and women that save lives

Reviewed in the United States on April 2, 2021

Verified Purchase

A wonderful accounting of the state-of-the-art of forecasting and weather warnings by one of the people that invented and developed them. Mike Smith recounts how we got to where we are today. It’s a terrific read.

Thank you, Mr. Denton! Please consider Warnings for your spring reading or as a gift to the graduate or for Mom or Dad. 

Phony 'Climate Emergency' Posturing

Scientific American and other publications are no longer going to use the term "climate change" (not to be confused with global warming, climate weirding, climate crisis) but replace it with "climate emergency." 

Prior to COVID, we had the lowest rate of extreme poverty in world history. We have the highest agricultural production in history. Meteorological famine has been nearly erased. 

Hardly an "emergency." 

Wind Power Fails -- Again

From Germany via Jo Nova, 

On January 1st, Germany shut 11 coal fired plants with about 4.7GW of generating power — supposedly as a part of the Big Phaseout [of fossil fuel generation]. But eight days later the wind wasn’t blowing and, according to Pierre Goslin, the system got so unstable that the managers had to turn back on some of the coal power. This on-off-cycle repeated so many times that one large plant — Heyden  – was restarted six times in the next eight weeks.

This actually began before the Texas catastrophe. More wind power is a recipe for a third world power grid. 

Global Warming: Is There Anything It Can't Do?

The caption speaks for itself. I'd be cover my mask in shame if I were making such a ludicrous claim.

Why is it ludicrous? Her own administration's data shows there is no severe drought in Mexico. 

Below is NOAA's drought map for the region. Reds and browns are severe drought. 

The drought in the Southwest United States is far worse than anything in Mexico. If they wanted to flee drought they are going the wrong direction. 

This is typical of global warming hype. It is fact-free on far too many occasions. 

Great News: New Paper Says Sea Level Rise Will Be Less Than Anticipated

 Here is a link to the paper. 

No Climate 'Emergency'

 This is required reading. A predominant climate scientist explains why the climate situation is hardly an 'emergency.'

The Cicadas Are Coming!!

Billions. Over the summer. 

Details here. 

Sad News: Fatal Overnight Tornado

Tragic news. This is why nighttime tornadoes are so dangerous. 

Evidently, the damage was extensive. 

Here is what the radar was showing when I was warning of it on Twitter (@useatherexpert) as the tornado was approaching Palmetto. 

At 10:25pm,

• Upper left panel is conventional radar (the type you see on television). There is a hook echo which is a signature of a tornado.
• Upper right is the Doppler velocity data. There is a clear "couplet" -- which shows significant rotation in the storm. 
• Lower left is the rate change of velocity data and can, as in this case, highlight the location of the tornado itself. 
• Lower right is lofted debris. 

Because of the inconvenience of sheltering during the night, I was using an objective method for detecting tornadoes using radar and atmospheric conditions. Below were the numbers for a radar-indicated tornado in Mississippi. 

This photo is of a different tornado in Mississippi than the one cited above.

Brandon Clement

It is too soon to know if my forecast (below) met the criteria I have set for an "extreme" risk. Based on radar, there were other tornadoes. At least two were in rural areas (fortunately!) so I don't know if damage surveys will be done so they can officially be put into the NWS's official database. 

Note to Readers

 At 1:24am, this has to be the end of my severe weather coverage for the night. The tornado watch continues in effect (below) and tornado warnings are currently in effect. So, please monitor the weather in the threatened areas. 

Tornado Watch for Strong Tornadoes Until 7am

Note that "strong" tornadoes are forecasted to occur along with wind gusts to 80 mph. The watch is in effect until 7am. 

Please monitor the weather the rest of the night in this area. 

Dangerous Derecho and Tornado Threat Through the Overnight Hours

This is a situation where you should call friends and relatives to make sure you they are aware of the threat and have at least two methods of being awakened when warnings are issued. 

Now Until 1am

The initial threat (now until midnight) is west of the Mississippi River (Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana). There will be giant hail (>2"), tornadoes and damaging winds from the stronger storms. 

1amto 7am Saturday

I've added a rare extreme risk (purple) over eastern Mississippi and far western Alabama from 1am to 7am CDT. There is the risk of strong tornadoes during the pre-dawn hours. Later. one or two lines of thunderstorms with damaging winds and, a few tornadoes, will occur. 

7am to 4pm Saturday

Damaging winds are possible in the yellow area with a couple tornadoes in the orange area.

Thunderstorm Timing

Here is the forecast radar for 8pm:

Radar Forecast for 2am:

Overnight tornadoes are extremely dangerous. Please make sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio, WEA activated on your smartphone and an app to awaken you if a tornado warning is issued. 

It is time to prepare! Recommendations:

• Make sure your phone and computer are charged but unplugged before the thunderstorms arrive because a lightning-induced power surge can damage them. 
• Have at least three independent sources of storm warnings.
• If you have friends who live in a mobile home or have issues with getting to shelter, act when the watch is issued, do not wait for the warning. 
• Fill your car with fuel and do the same with your chain saw, if you have one. 
• Get cash from the ATM -- they don't work during power outages. 

I will update again this afternoon.

Major Severe Weather Event in the South

 Derecho Likely in the Southern United States

This morning, we begin with the damaging wind forecast. Power failures and blocked roads due to toppled trees are likely. 

Wind gusts above 75 mph are likely in the red and purple areas. Given the extremely wet soils, especially in Arkansas, trees will be easily uprooted. 

Tornado Forecast

There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area and an enhanced risk of tornadoes in the yellow area. 

There will also be giant hail (>2") in the western half of the threatened area, including Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Dallas. 

It is time to prepare! Recommendations:

• Make sure your phone and computer are charged but unplugged before the thunderstorms arrive because a lightning-induced power surge can damage them. 
• Have at least three independent sources of storm warnings.
• If you have friends who live in a mobile home or have issues with getting to shelter, act when the watch is issued, do not wait for the warning. 
• Fill your car with fuel and do the same with your chain saw, if you have one. 
• Get cash from the ATM -- they don't work during power outages. 
• Fill any prescription refills now -- before the major storms begin. 

I will update again this afternoon. 

Which Areas Had More or Less Snow Than Normal?

The map shows how snow accumulations varied from average across the contiguous United States. Greens are more snow than normal and reds are less. 

Tweets of the Week

Some comments from the Twitter feed. 

Stabilizing the Climate

This isn't the first tweet this week about "stabilizing our climate." I wonder if a press release pertaining to President Biden's infrastructure bill used that phrase.

Stabilizing the climate = stabilizing the weather. Does anyone actually believe we know how to control the weather? Besides, below is a graph of planetary temperatures since 1900. Can you point to any time where the climate was stable?

Even if we could control the weather, at what level is best for humanity? Climate scientists haven't even opined as to the ideal temperature for humans. 

Evil Weather Control

There are those who actually believe we can control the weather. 

We really should get the "we need to stabilize the climate" people together with the people who believe in "manmade manipulation of our weather." That way, we can save many trillion dollars in the infrastructure plan proposed by the president. 

One of the Vital Questions of Our Time

Yes! No more need be said. 

Enhanced Risk of Tornadoes in the South

There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes in the orange area.

There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the yellow area. 

I recommend you keep up on the weather in these areas later today and this evening. 

 

Today's Tornado Risk Forecast

Please see 4:55pm Update Below --

There is a significant risk of a tornado or two in the yellow area of middle and south central Kansas. The time to monitor the weather is from 5pm until 11pm, based on current information. 

This is kind of a tricky forecast. I don't expect major tornadoes but any tornado can be dangerous. Please monitor the weather in this area later today and this evening.

The National Weather Service just issued a severe thunderstorm watch for central Kansas and south central Nebraska. 

In addition to 70 mph thunderstorm-induced wind gusts and 2" hail, their forecast also calls for a tornado or two possible.  

I am not a fan of putting tornado forecasts into severe thunderstorm watches. But, I wanted you to be aware that, evidently, the NWS has come around to my way of thinking about the tornado threat. As of 4:57pm, the very first thunderstorm is forming just southeast of Dodge City. 

A Review of "Warnings"

I ran across a 2015 review of Warnings that I had not previously seen. It is here. Some excerpts:

In “Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather”, Smith gives a fast-paced description of the most remarkable storms that have defined modern times. He explains how the forecasting of weather changes has been transformed into a well-defined scientific discipline... 

The language used in the book makes it an amazingly easy-to-read publication. One does not need to have a meteorological background to appreciate the fascinating submissions made in the book. Complex weather phenomena like tornadoes are explained in graphic details for all to understand them. Numerous photographs in the book make it a vivid, interesting treatise. The fascinating nature of the book is amplified by the actuality that it is replete with suspense." 

Over the Easter weekend:

And, just a little while ago:

We are coming up on the tenth anniversaries of the catastrophic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak in the South and the horrific 2011 Joplin Tornado, and well as the 30th anniversary of the Wichita-Andover Tornado -- the 5th strongest tornado in recorded history. 

Whether for Mother's Day, Father's Day, spring break, graduation or just a great read, I hope you'll consider reading the important, yet entertaining, stories in Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.