Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Ice + Floods = Thanksgiving Travel Trouble

Lots to talk about in this update. Please factor these forecasts into your Thanksgiving travel plans. 

Let's begin with the threat of freezing rain. Essentially, on Thanksgiving and if you are in the blue or red areas, travel will be a problem.

Here are the probabilities of 2" or more of snow for the 48 hours ending at 6am Thanksgiving Day.

The map below shows winter weather information. The pink = winter storm warning; blue = winter weather advisory; and dark green = winter storm watch. The small orange area is a blizzard warning which includes I-80 in southwest Wyoming.

The other threat we need to discuss is the likelihood of major flooding in the southern Plains. Here is the NWS forecast of precipitation amounts for the next five days.
Those are forecasts of eight inches in southern Oklahoma and far southwest Arkansas. Some of the models have in excess of 10" in those areas. The rainfalls will be augmented by extra moisture from Tropical Storm Sandra.
Of course, I'll be providing updates.

Update on Flooding Threat

Here is the forecast rainfall for the next five days:
That is 7.7 inches forecast for southeast Oklahoma with a large area of 5+ inches forecast from the Ozarks to north central Texas. This is enough to cause at least localized flooding.

I'll have a complete update this afternoon.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Thanksgiving Week Travel Forecast

This biggest problem will be heavy rains in the Southern Plains on Black Friday and Saturday.

Here is an overview from AccuWeather.


Here is the forecast rainfall from 6pm this evening to 6pm Thanksgiving Evening.

And, the heavy rains get started Thursday night.
That is a forecast of nearly 5" along I-35 between the Red River and Dallas. The heavy rains will likely cause mild delays at the Dallas airports.

Here are the probabilities of 2" or more of snow accumulating between 6am CST Tuesday to 6am Thanksgiving Day.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Terrific Piece by Meteorologist Ginger Zee on Storm Chasing

Click here.

The Band of Heaviest Snow

Here is a plot of accumulations of 10" or more.
As much as 17" accumulated in the northwest corner of Iowa.

Here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar that shows in blue shades where it is snowing now. Darker blues = heavier falling snows.
Average delays at O'Hare currently are 60 minutes.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Winter Weather Problems at Chicago Airports

A winter storm warning has been issued for Chicago and the airlines have issued "waivers" meaning you can change you plans without charge.

If you are planning to fly through/to Chicago this afternoon or tonight call the airline and see if you can get on a later flight this morning. The snow is still a few hours away from Chicago and sooner is better than later.

Great Holiday Gift!!

Here is the latest reader review from Amazon:
Warnings makes a terrific gift for anyone interested in weather, science or just a good read. As a Long Island reader posted at Amazon:

What a thrilling roller coast ride Mike Smith conducts in this weather/meteorology masterpiece! 

So, don't wait until Black Friday. Warnings is available from B&N, Amazon or your local bookseller.

Winter Storm Starting

Here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar from 8am Friday:

Here is the AccuWeather snow amount forecast:
Please slow down if you are going to be driving in these areas.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Early Weekend Snow Storm

The Midwest will see its first significant snow of the season starting in about 24 hours. AccuWeather has details. A winter storm warning is in effect in Iowa.

Thank You, Twitter Followers

If you would like to follow me on Twitter it is @usweatherexpert. Most of the real-time storm information I send out is tweeted to this account.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Why You Need to Be Underground, If Possible, During a Tornado

Via Twitter, comes a cornstalk driven into a car's radiator during Monday night's tornadoes in the Texas Panhandle.
If you can't be underground, always get to the lowest floor (wind speeds are lower near the ground) and put as many walls as possible between you and the tornado.

Some Good News!

How about some good news this morning? The Arctic ice continues to recover from its 2007 low.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Note to Television Meteorologists and Journalists

IF it is snowing heavily and IF winds are gusting above 50 mph and IF visibility is measured as a few hundred feet,
Conditions are not "blizzard like." It is a blizzard. 

I have seen the blizzard in the High Plains mischaracterized in this way literally a dozen times today both on air and online.

Thank you.

Severe Storm Update

Yellow = tornado watch. Red (south central Missouri) is a tornado warning. Amber is severe thunderstorm warnings. Maroon = flash flood warnings. And, the various greens are flood advisories of various types.