Tuesday, January 17, 2017

As a Meteorologist, I LOVE This

Real meteorologists make their own forecasts. It is dismaying when your children use someone else's forecast. I love his response.

Monday, January 16, 2017

This is Partly Why Ice Storms Are So Hard to Forecast

In order to get an ice storm, you have to have a "warm air sandwich." If the air is below freezing from top to bottom, you get snow. You get ice only if you have exactly the right amount of warm air above the ground as illustrated above.

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Tornado Warning Now for Tarrant and Dallas Counties

The tornado, if it is on the ground, is near Grand Prairie and its current path would take it into the Irving area. Radar from 8:34p.

UPDATE: 9:47P:  Tornado reported on the ground in Grand Prairie moving in the direction of Irving.
 Radar 849p

Tornado Watch for Texas Until Midnight

This was forecast on this blog hours ago (scroll down). There is already a tornado warning in effect for the Metroplex.

Possible Tornado Between Dallas and Ft. Worth

The new tornado warning is the red polygon in eastern Tarrant County, Texas.
Location of the tornado is circled. It is moving N to NNE toward Arlington or Grand Prairie.

The Wonders of Technology

Images, moments ago, of the first supercell thunderstorm with large hail and tornado potential north of Del Rio, Texas.
It is in the area I outlined below and thee is still a chance of a tornado this evening.

Addition: Report of tennis ball-sized hail near Rock Springs, Texas. 6:20pm

Ice Storm and Tornado Risk Update

The latest AccuWeather Regional Radar:

Here is the forecast radar plus my forecast of where the most additional icing will occur between now and 7pm.
Yes, the large area of showers and thunderstorms on the KS-OK border will be moving NNE during the night. It will cause even further icing in the High Plains.

Numerous photos of destructive icing are now coming in and the power outages are increasing rather rapidly. Even had one (now fixed) in northeast Wichita.

And, there is a tornado risk later this afternoon and evening in the red area below.

Sunday Silliness: I Always Thought the Purpose Was to Provide Nourishment for Children

Ice Storm in Buffalo, Oklahoma

Via Twitter and the Basehunters Chasing Group.

Texas Tornado Risk Later Today

The brown area (5%) is the significant threshold for a risk of tornadoes later today and this evening.

11am Sunday Ice Storm Update

There are already isolated power outages in southwest Kansas even though the ice storm has progressed more slowly than originally forecast.

Here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar.
I continue to believe southwest into central Kansas will be the hardest hit with this storm.

Photo below via Twitter just south of Hastings, Nebraska.

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Ice Storm Update: 12:40pm Saturday

The upper level low, now west of Baja, is farther west than I was expecting at this point.
I had thought it would be over far northwest Mexico, so the storm is developing more slowly than I originally expected.

However, it is still developing. Here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar from 12:30pm and you can see that the area of freezing rain has gotten larger.
I still believe the ice storm will evolve as forecast except for a little more slowly.

Here We Go!

At 11:10am, radar indicated a growing area of freezing rain -- with lightning and thunder -- in northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. There was a second growing area in Missouri.

This is the main ice storm. Please be prepared.

7am Saturday Ice Storm Update

Here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar:
After the first round of the ice storm yesterday, the second round -- which is the most important -- is getting organized.

Here is the radar at 1pm.

And, the forecast radar at 5pm.

All of that precipitation is going to turn to ice, unfortunately, in the areas indicated below. Last night's forecast is still valid.

Friday, January 13, 2017

The Danger to Electrical Infrastructure Has Increased

Here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar as of 7:30pm.
The power failure issues have possibly become more serious.

Below is my forecast from 5:30pm. The area within yellow will be subject to scattered to widespread power failures. The area with the darkest rose color may have power out for days or weeks.

Below is the latest map of the Sperry-Piltz Index which is designed to anticipate the level of power failures in ice storms and the news is not good.
I have modified the original forecast colors (which used the National Weather Service's forecast of ice accumulation) so it now displays my forecast for the red and purple areas. Now, here is what the colors mean.
Outages of 5 to 10 days are very serious. If you have not made plans and the freezing rain has not begun in your area, please do so right away. Scroll down to see my suggestions.

Literally a few minutes after the freezing rain began in Wichita, roads (including major highways) instantly became skating rinks. Please do not travel unless it is absolutely essential!