Monday, September 27, 2021

Mike Smith Enterprises' Professional Offerings

We do many things in addition to this blog. 

Books

Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather is an upbeat, true story of how scientists have tamed hurricanes and tornadoes and have conquered downbursts -- once the leading cause of airline accidents that killed hundreds at a time. It is available in hardcover or Kindle/Nook.
Warnings enjoys outstanding reviews and ratings (above) from readers. 

When the Sirens Were Silent is a short book (60 pages) that tells the story of what went so terribly wrong with the warnings for the Joplin Tornado of 2011. The highlights of 97 ratings are below:
Sirens also has detailed tornado safety rules for home, school and office. 

For all who have asked, yes, there is a third book in the offing. The manuscript is finished but, so far, I have not found an agent who wishes to represent it. 

And, yes, I do writing assignments for major publications such as the Washington Post, Slate, New York Times, Wichita Eagle, and others. 


Live Presentations

Even with COVID, I continue to appear live and via the internet to groups who are interested in learning about weather and how to protect themselves and how to use weather to make their businesses safer and more profitable. I never do "death by powerpoint." When I use visuals they are compelling that draw the viewer into the program. Speaking engagements have taken me from NYC to Miami to Hawaii.

I am represented by Ms. Mindy East of BaronRidge Productions. Her contact information is here


Business Consulting

I work with science-based existing and entreneurial businesses. I started WeatherData, Inc. in 1981 then sold it to AccuWeather in 2006 where I continued until I retired in 2018. Learned a lot along the way and I would be please to pass that knowledge along to you and your team. More here.  


Photography

I have taken over ten thousand meteorological photos that have been published in publications too numerous to list. I'm now offering a selected number of them via Adobe Stock Photography. These are images of the highest quality. 

This blog and other content 
© 2021, Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC

Saturday, September 25, 2021

Thanks Be to God! Fr. Emil Kapaun is Back Home in Kansas

This is a day I never thought would occur: Medal of Honor recipient and (almost certainly) future saint of the Catholic Church, Chaplain Father Emil Kapaun is back home in Kansas. He arrived at Wichita's Eisenhower National Airport about 12:25pm. 

There will be a number of Catholic Masses celebrated as well as other prayer services before his interment.
Father Kapaun's tomb being prepared
Fr. Kapaun will be laid to rest in Wichita's Cathedral of the Immaculate Conception. 

If you are not familiar with the story of Father Kapaun, he was an Army chaplain during the Korean War. His platoon was the first to be overrun. He stayed behind to minister to his men and performed amazing acts of heroism as a prisoner of war. He was tortured and died in Korea and, it was believed, buried in a mass grave. I believe the discovery and identification of his remains was nothing less than a miracle.

My three children attended Kapaun High School in Wichita and they have published a succinct story for those who wish to learn more. It is here

Much of the activities the next four days will be nationally televised on EWTN. The schedule of events is here
- - - - - - - - -
KAKE-TV
At 2:45pm Saturday, the funeral procession made it to Fr. Kapaun's home parish, St. John Nepomucene, in
Pilsen. Kapaun was the pastor of this church before the Korean War but the last time he set foot in it was in 1949.

Friday, September 24, 2021

Heads Up: Wheat Farmers

The dry soil has been far less than ideal for planting the 2022 winter wheat crop. The good news is that rain is on the way.

Here is the National Weather Service's 7-day rainfall forecast ending at 6pm, Friday, October 2.

After the above forecast was published, the rainfall amount forecast from the ECMWF model, the world's most accurate, became available. Here is the ten-day rainfall amount forecast for the winter wheat belt. 
Kansas and Nebraska 
Texas and Oklahoma 
Things are looking up.

Watch Bill Gates' Body Language and Make Up Your Own Mind

Bill Gates has never been one of my favorite people, but I find this interview to be quite revealing. Watch his body language. 

Keep in mind that Gates has never denied he flew on Jeffery Epstein's Lolita Express. That story is here.

Gates has taken credit for polio immunization work primarily done by Rotary International as well as other things I find to be, at best, distasteful. 

I bring this up solely for one reason: Given his forays into public health, is this a person you wish to trust? 

The MSM has generally been "hands off" Gates' issues. I give Judy Woodruff credit for this interview. 

Headwind - A Wind Energy Expose´

“At some point we’re all going to look back and say; why were we such idiots”?                                     Alexander Pohl

Headwind”21 asks questions about wind energy... Ultimately it rubs truth deep into the wounds of the wind industry. 

It debuts today. I haven't seen it and am looking forward to it. More and more people are waking up to the scam that is wind energy./ 

Please click here for more information.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Climate Night? Hah!

We are utter fools if we continue to deploy wind energy while decommissioning perfectly good nuclear plants. Fools. We already have too much wind energy (ask people who live in Texas). 

There are many good reasons to decarbonize electricity production. That can best be accomplished with hydro and nuclear. Wind and solar not necessary. More here. The people who benefit from our current policies (shutting down U.S. energy independence) are Russia, Iran and China.

Climate Night - Utter Hypocrisy
It seems even politicians and celebrities -- including those that vociferously impose wind and solar o the rest of us -- at least in their personal lives, get it, including almost all of those who participated in tonight's "Climate Night." So, let's go in search of solar:

Jimmy Fallon's home. Any solar on the roof?

Ding...ding...ding. Jimmy Kimmel has solar. Look at left side of the roof.

Obama's new Martha's Vineyard Home. See any solar panels?

"Climate Czar" John Kerry's Natucket home. Solar panels? Nope!

One of Al Gore's three homes. No solar here, either.

One of President Biden's homes. None of them have solar.
The people who are trying to guilt you about global warming fly around on private jets, live lives with gigantic carbon footprints, and are total hypocrites. They are also morons

Addition
And, while we're at it:
With the exceptions of Al Gore and Leonard DiCaprio, there are no bigger environmental hypocrites than Meghan and Harry; with their private jets and motorcades. Exactly why we taxpayers are funding this is a mystery to me. 

This is Railroad Safety Week

There are three rules on which I want you to focus after reading this piece about railroad safety:

1. Never play, work, or photograph on railroad tracks! Period. No exceptions!

Hollywood film crew, even though they were denied permission by CSX Railroad,
was hit by a train while shooting on a bridge. Even though they had a 
lookout, one died and one was seriously injured.

In a terrible irony, a person in California was killed on tracks this morning


2. If a car or truck is stuck on tracks, call the railroad first, then call 9-1-1.

Every public railroad crossing in the United States has unique identifying information to quickly get trains stopped. Here's how to find it: 

If there are flashing lights or other mechanical warning devices, the information will be on the electronics hut along with an (800) phone number. Call that and read off the information on the box. Then, call 9-1-1.

If it is a rural crossbuck:
I apologize for not having a rural crossing photo from the front but you will find the info in the locations highlighted. 

3. Don't go around crossing gates, flashing lights or other indication a train is coming. If the crossing seems to be malfunctioning, please call the railroad as above. Then, find an alternative route. 

There is much more on rail safety, here

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

COVID Vaccines: Something SEEMS Terribly Off

Before I go further, I am a support of vaccines, including the COVID vaccines. I have been vaccinated three times against the disease. (More advice at the end of this piece.)

That said, day by day, something increasingly seems wrong with the COVID vaccines. Notice the emphasis on the word, "seems." I am not a physician and I don't know how seriously to take the information below. But, I do have a number of questions. 

Late Monday morning, I had to go to a local emergency room due to a reaction to a new medicine. The place was packed. I had an exceptionally long wait. While chatting with the ER physician who treated me, he told me that he was "in the process of admitting six COVID patients who are really sick. And, they are all fully vaccinated." What??

Dr. Fauci told us this was impossible. 

The physician told me he was glad that I and the others were fully vaccinated. "They would be a lot sicker if they weren't," he added. But, I got to thinking, "What is the evidence for that?" He seemed impatient and was extraordinarily busy according to the nurses so I didn't want to take his time. 

After arriving home, I started to do some online research on the question, What Evidence Is There The COVID Vaccines Reduce the Severity of the Disease? 

I searched on Google and DuckDuckGo, search engines which use differing techniques. All I could find are two press releases from the CDC (here and here). If there are recent peer-reviewed studies, independent of the CDC, I cannot find them. There is nothing in either release that indicates their internal studies have been submitted for peer-review.

Having read both carefully, I am not impressed, even though I wanted to be. 

In the California (only) study, the (red link) key finding is:

Lower percentages of fully vaccinated persons were hospitalized (3.2%), were admitted to an intensive care unit (0.5%), and required mechanical ventilation (0.2%) compared with partially vaccinated persons (6.2%, 1.0%, and 0.3%, respectively) and unvaccinated persons (7.6%, 1.5%, and 0.5%, respectively) (p<0.001)

I am not a medical or epidemiological statistician, so I do not know the correct statistical methods to determine whether the above findings are statistically significant. CDC says they are. But, let's break the data out another way:

                              Not Vaccinated     Partial      Fully 
Hospitalized?                  7.6%             6.2%       3.2%
Ventilator?                      0.5%             0.3*%       0.2%
The 0.3 is a correction. Thank you, reader Bill.

The second study's (purple link) key findings are:

The findings come from four weeks of additional data collected in CDC’s HEROES-RECOVER study of health care workers, first responders, frontline workers, and other essential workers. These groups are more likely to be exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19 because of their occupations. Preliminary results from this study were first announced in March 2021.

In the new analysis, 3,975 participants completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 17 consecutive weeks (from December 13, 2020 to April 10, 2021) in eight U.S. locations. Participants self-collected nasal swabs that were laboratory tested for SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus that causes COVID-19. If the tests came back positive, the specimens were further tested to determine the amount of detectable virus in the nose (i.e., viral load) and the number of days that participants tested positive (i.e., viral shedding). Participants were followed over time and the data were analyzed according to vaccination status. To evaluate vaccine benefits, the study investigators accounted for the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 viruses in the area and how consistently participants used personal protective equipment (PPE) at work and in the community. Once fully vaccinated, participants’ risk of infection was reduced by 91 percent. After partial vaccination, participants’ risk of infection was reduced by 81 percent. These estimates included symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.

To determine whether COVID-19 illness was milder, study participants who became infected with SARS-CoV-2 were combined into a single group and compared to unvaccinated, infected participants. Several findings indicated that those who became infected after being fully or partially vaccinated were more likely to have a milder and shorter illness compared to those who were unvaccinated. For example, fully or partially vaccinated people who developed COVID-19 spent on average six fewer total days sick and two fewer days sick in bed. They also had about a 60 percent lower risk of developing symptoms, like fever or chills, compared to those who were unvaccinated. Some study participants infected with SARS-CoV-2 did not develop symptoms.

My concerns with the study are stated, in order, 
  • Essential workers are younger, and possibly healthier, than the population as a whole.
  • COVID tests were self-collected rather than by a neutral third party.
  • I have never understood why "asymptomatic" results are considered an "illness." This was also true before the vaccines. 
  • By combining the cases, it means asymptomatic cases were considered "positives." I have a good friend who tested positive for COVID early in the epidemic who had no real symptoms. As this is constructed, he would be considered a vaccine "success." That doesn't seem right, especially given the small numbers,
  • Of the 3,975 first responders in the study, if the infection was prevented in 91% of the participants, then the remaining infected participants = 44. That seems a very small population from which to develop these conclusions. 
Speaking of small populations, Project Veritas dropped a video with a woman who is a federal hospital registered nurse. There is also undercover video. While we never know how video might be edited, there is enough there to indicate that health care workers at that facility had a number of concerns, some serious, about the vaccines, including the allegation a vaccine caused the death of a healthy colleague. The video and transcript are here

Usually, I would discount the PV report. But, consider this:
These are health care workers who resigned -- in large numbers -- presumably the people with the most experience with the vaccines and their results. If the vaccines are as promoted, why would they resign?

They are not the only ones.
It is curious to me that the reporter discounts the experiences of front-line health care workers. I don't understand why the MSM (perhaps the narrative?) interview Fauci and other 'experts' who do not see patients -- and insult the people ("misinformation") who do. 

I do know there are numerous reports that at least some physicians feel pressured to "go along" with federal guidance and/or feel the White House's advice to get a third shot is invalid.
President Biden's plan was rejected by an FDA panel Friday by a vote of 16-2. There will not be a recommendation the general population receive a third shot. 

Finally, independent reporter Sharyl Attkisson has compiled a list of concerns about the vaccine that are backed by evidence. It is here. As you'll see, it is long list. 

I'll be the very first to concede I don't know whether there are significant or serious issues with the vaccine(s). But when there is smoke, it seems reasonable to check for fire. At this point, I'm not taking advice from either side at face value.  As usual, the mainstream media seems to get the vast majority of their information from government of academic people along I-95 from D.C. to Boston which have a uniform point of view*. 

For now my advice remains mostly unchanged: Speak to your physician. If you are young and have heart problems, I would probably speak to both my cardiologist and my general physician (GP). If you are pregnant I'd speak to your GP and OB-GYN before. 

If your personal medical experts say to get the vaccine, it is probably best to do so. Either way, do it quickly in order to protect yourself.

I'm happy I've had the recommended three boosters. However, the side effects from shot #3 (Pfizer) were significantly worse than #1 and #2. If you have bad side effects with the first two shots, let your physician(s) know. I'm glad the FDA nixed President Biden's plan for the general population. 

Addition: 9/21, A Story on this same topic from the Los Angeles Times. I find it interesting that the story originates far from the groupthink on the East Coast. Their conclusion is the vaccines, especially Pfizer's, have problems. 


*IMPORTANT. These days, if a reporter asks to interview you, make sure you record at least the audio of the entire interview. The stakes are high on this topic and reporters will almost never give you their raw notes and/or video. You will want to be protected against misquote with your own copy. If the reporter will not allow the interview to be recorded, cancel the interview. 

Monday, September 20, 2021

Hurricane Ira Used Cars

Carfax says to be careful. Two hundred thousand cars were flooded. These cars will soon show up on used car lots and may have hidden damage. 

Unfortunate Words From Pope Francis

I saw this tweet yesterday evening, followed up, and found it was true. 

The story is here. You will have to have a vaccine passport to get into the Vatican. So, we are clear, I want you to be vaccinated unless your physician advises you otherwise. Please, get the vaccine! 

Back to the religion aspect of the Pope's actions: The Gospels say Jesus acted differently.

What makes Pope Francis' requirement of vaccine passports especially galling is because he has been a frequent critic of U.S. immigration policy under President Trump

“I say it publicly. I have even said that those that build walls end up being prisoners of the walls they build.”

So, the Pope believes it is okay for the Vatican to restrict the people coming into that country but it is not okay for the U.S. to do so. Leprosy, like COVID-Delta, is highly contagious which is why, in Roman times, they were forced to live away from others. Gospel historians say Jesus set an unusual example by interacting with the lepers. 

I am a practicing Catholic and it pains me to criticize any Pope. However, I believe it is important speak out so that non-Catholics do not misunderstand church policy. In this case, Pope Francis, in this case, is not proclaiming official Catholic doctrine. That is done through encyclicals and other methods designed for that purpose. 

Sunday, September 19, 2021

The Global Warming Propaganda Machine at Work

All of These Stories Are Post-Hurricane Ida
"Never let a crisis go to waste." It has been both predictable and amusing watching Big Climate's propaganda machine at work since Hurricane Ida. Climate propagandist plus serial lawsuit filer (and loser) Michael Mann (above) is proposing that we will have to create a Cat 6 hurricane as part of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Of course, that isn't needed because the Scale already provides for intense hurricanes like Ida, which is currently rated a Cat 4. Mann's article is pure propaganda for people who don't understand how the Scale works.

Let's talk about some of these other articles.
This story isn't just about global warming, it is intended to try to help the Democrats pass their gigantic "welfare for the rich" 'infrastructure' bill in the disguise of green energy. Never mind that energy shortages are
WSJ, Sunday, Sept 19
already being forecasted for this winter (remember the blackouts in February?), in part because of our over-dependence on wind energy. We are utter fools if we extend our dangerous dependence on wind. 

These stories are planted by Big Climate's Madison Avenue public 

relations consultants as well as by university climate public relations research groups that I have called the "Donald Draper School of Meteorology." They use the same marketing techniques as companies that sell cigarettes. Remember, trillions of dollars are spent on global warming and Big Climate wants ever more, regardless of whether it actually helps the environment. 

My 'favorite' (sarc) is the one below.
The opinion article came with a caption that says, 

Remember, the Bible tell us God sent swarms of locusts to punish mankind.

Of course, the Bible says no such thing. God sent the locusts to punish Pharaoh and the Egyptians for holding the Israelites in slavery and restricting their freedoms. There is nothing in Exodus that says God punishes "mankind" for 'environmental sins'. I am a practicing Catholic and have written that Pope Francis should not be getting involved in the global warming debate in the manner in which he has chosen to do so.

No question earth's temperatures are warmer now than 60 years ago. But, the climate models continue to overstate the amount of warming likely to occur. Big Climate and the mainstream media make sure you are not told the beneficial aspects of a warmer climate like,
  • Record per-capita and total food supplies. Meteorological famine is nearly a thing of the past.
  • On a net basis, less energy is used worldwide.
  • On a net basis, fewer people die of exposure.
  • Violent tornadoes in the United States are less frequent (USA is the only nation for which we have sufficient data). Other storms have not gotten worse with the possible exception that heavy rainstorms have a slight additional amount of rain. 
Now, you know these "news" stories are not coincidences or even legitimate news. They are planted by rich, powerful climate and environmental groups with a goal of making the rich, even richer.

Do You Enjoy Books About History?

If you are interested in learning more about World War I, you will want to obtain a copy of A Decade Like No Other, Countdown to Catastrophe by Dennis Cross. It is a month-by-month history of the War and the runup to it. 

Dennis is my daughter's father-in-law and a brilliant man. Not only is he an interesting writer, he works at the nation's World War I memorial in Kansas City. 

Saturday, September 18, 2021

Rainfall For Next Week

Generous, in some places excessive, rain will fall the next seven days over the eastern half of the nation. 

Badly needed rains will fall in the Northwest with the first of the autumn cold fronts. Hopefully, it will be a season of generous rainfall in the West. 

Friday, September 17, 2021

I Don't See the Government Tearing Down that Giant Data Center in Utah...

The intelligence communities' Utah data center, 
one of a number they run. It is rumored that part of
it is underground.


Proving once again that "bi-partisan" = "especially bad," the Patriot Act -- passed in a rush in the weeks after September 11 --  has been once of the worst pieces of legislation in the history of our nation. It allowed the government to spy on us without warrants.
  • Call an abortion clinic? The government knows.
  • Use your cellphone while on the road? The government knows not only about the use of the phone but also your location
  • The examples are endless -- and, dangerous. 
Edward Snowden is a hero who brought all of this to our attention yet he has been pursued by politicians of both parties who do not wish for the workings of Deep State to be revealed. I urge you to read the entire article at the red link above. 

Thursday, September 16, 2021

Weather and Chronic Pain

I want to introduce my readers to The Patient and the Weather which is a web site devoted to helping readers with chronic pain anticipate when the weather might cause pain levels to increase. There is no question that weather can affect people with chronic pain and the site might be useful to you. 

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Dan Rather and 1961's Hurricane Carla

This month is the 60th anniversary of Hurricane Carla. Not only did that storm cause tremendous damage near the coast, it caused record flooding well inland, including south Kansas City where I lived at the time. Many of these records still stand. 

While the 1900 Galveston Hurricane was the most deadly in the history of the United States, 1961's Carla was the biggest to strike Texas. For historic purposes, the Weather Bureau (now National Weather Service) made this video (in its usual kitschy style) about using the radar to track the storm. It was the first time a hurricane had been tracked in this say.
 
Former CBS News anchor Dan Rather made his bones covering Carla. AccuWeather has that story, here

Thank You to My Readers

 

Sales of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather and When the Sirens Were Silent have been brisk recently. I want each of you to know how much I appreciate it. 

"Downburst in Kansas," #452181428
And, if you are in the market for commercial stock photography, selected photographs of mine are available at Adobe Stock Photography. Note: there are more of my photos available than are shown on the preview page. 

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Were Any Nuclear, Gas or Coal Generation Plants Destroyed?

Nicholas was a borderline hurricane.

For Meteorologists: The Misuse of Wireless Emergency Alerts


Last night's The 11th Hour With Brian Williams (when you click on the link, it is the final segment) had a rare segment that included some much-deserved praise for the National Weather Service (transcript below in case the video is taken down). 

Just days earlier, remember, Schumer was with the president as they toward the flooding from the remnants of Hurricane Ida in the New York City Borough of Queens. The governor of New York and the mayor of New York blamed inaccurate forecasts and warnings for the staggering toll of death and damage. But the truth is the forecasts and the flash flood warnings were astonishingly accurate if you were paying attention.

The National Weather Service is a national treasure. Their meteorologists are the essence of public service. They`re on duty 24 seven, they are busy. In fact, tonight issuing warnings as hurricane Nicholas heads inland bringing awful flooding from Houston all the way east to New Orleans and beyond.

However, the primary focus of the segment is how people have tuned out Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) and may have missed the flash flood emergency warning for New York City on September 1. Williams used the absurd WEA alert sent out during the solemn ceremony in Shanksville Saturday as an example of WEA's misuse. This is a topic about which I have written on several occasions (examples, here and here). Brian Williams went on to report,

The problem is not the National Weather Service. In fact, the problem just might be us. Warnings are so often ignored. They are supposed to sound on your phone. Unless of course the last Amber Alert tone interrupted your last Zoom call and you turned off your notifications. That means you could miss the next tornado or flash flood warning. Over use of warning systems is the modern day definition of crying wolf...   [emphasis mine]

GEOFF BENNETT, NBC WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The President and the First Lady are going to lay a reef. We`re getting some sort of emergency alert here in Shanksville. We`ll find out what that`s all about.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WILLIAMS:  It fell to Steve Portnoy of CBS News to speak for all of us. Two of these alerts with their abrasive halting and haunting tones came screaming over the cell phones of Flight 93 families as they gathered at the memorial wall. This misuse of the weather emergency alert system sent shutters through the crowd and event we also note that hosted to American presidents under heavy security.

So the problem isn`t our technology or our ability. It`s how we use it. The information is there but incidents like this screw up don`t bode well for the effort to get folks to pay attention.

Wireless Emergency Alerts used to be activated solely for life-threatening situations (tsunami, tornado, etc.). Now that 2.5" hail* has been added to WEA -- which I view as an unfortunate development -- there are already calls to lower the wind threshold to 70 mph and 1.5 inch hail. This is a slippery slope. The NBC report demonstrates that people resent WEA false alarms and that people will deactivate WEA due to warnings that are not meaningful to them. 

NOAA Weather Radio became irrelevant because of too many non-meaningful activations (1" hail warning at 3am). We need to be very careful the same mistakes are not made with WEA.

*I mistyped earlier. 80 mph winds are life-threatening. I was referring to the 70 mph proposal.