Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Are They Crazy?

Over my dead body...
Heck, they can't keep their existing promises

The Study About Numbers of Tornadoes That Didn't Count Tornadoes [see correction below]

As clearly stated below, this blog posting was based on Seth Borenstein's story about the Gensini and Brooks study. The story states (link below):

Because tornadoes sometimes go undercounted, especially in the past and in less populous areas, scientists don't like to study trends by using counts of tornadoes.

I have since heard from Dr. Gensini and I have read the paper itself. They do count number of tornadoes and the story is clearly incorrect. My objection as to the conclusions of the paper itself stand. They are:
  1. Back to Dr. Ted Fujita in the 1970's, there has been speculation about an east-west cycle regarding tornado maxima. It wish this study had referenced his work and commented on it.
  2. Forty years is too short a period of time in and of itself and, because, 
  3. From 1979 to 1996 (release of Twister) tornado chasing was restricted to the Great Plains which might have had the effect of inflating tornado numbers versus the areas farther east where tornado chasing was much more rare. 
  4. The STP (see below) is often not a good proxy for number of tornadoes. 
I have stricken out the incorrect information in the original posting. 

-- original posting --
Tornado near Tescott, Kansas, May, 2018
A reader brought to my attention and asked me to comment about this article pertaining to a study (based on a computer model) that alleges tornadoes are becoming less common in the Great Plains and more common farther east. However, they didn't actually count tornadoes to see if their model was producing realistic results.

"Because tornadoes sometimes go undercounted, especially in the past and in less populous areas, scientists don't like to study trends by using counts of tornadoes. Gensini and tornado scientist Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Lab looked at "significant tornado parameters," a measurement of the key ingredients of tornado conditions." 

Unfortunately, the "significant tornado parameter" is not a good proxy for the total number of tornadoes. For example, on a given day the "STP" can be high but because the parent thunderstorms are elevated, no tornado occurs. There is also the fact that a study of less than forty years is too short in climatological terms to draw any real conclusions.

This is yet another example of weather science being dominated to an unhealthy extent by computer models in lieu of doing the detective work needed to do fully validated and replicable science. We need more weather scientists in the mold of the late Dr. Ted Fujita and fewer computer models.  [Not a fair comment in this context]

Speakers For Chasercon 2019 Have Been Announced

There is an amazing list of speakers for Chasercon 2019 to be held at the Hyatt Regency Wichita the weekend of February 8 -10. 

The speakers are:
1) Tim Marshall
2) Dr Greg Forbes
3) Dr Jason Persoff
4) Roger Edwards 
5) AccuWeather expert on commercial meteorology and severe storms

There will be special panel discussion, details soon to follow. 

Sunday morning, Jon Davies is doing a "forecasting for chasers" class that has received rave reviews in the past.

And, the Keynote speaker for the Saturday dinner is yours truly.

As previously mentioned, this is the #1 gathering of storm chasers, meteorologists and enthusiasts from across the country. It is held every year just before storm season begins. 

We had my retirement party at the Hyatt and the food, service and rooms were all outstanding. 

Below is the list of airlines that serve Wichita. 

Stay tuned for more information. 

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Two Week Rainfalls in the Great Plains

Here is a map of two-week rainfalls across the Great Plains.
There is record flooding on the Llano River in central Texas. Dodge City has had the wettest October ever even though it is only the 16th.

Hurricane Michael's Peak Gusts

click to enlarge
Please note that winds over 100 mph extended into southwest Georgia.

ADDITION:  Some are reporting that the National Hurricane Center's peak winds, while plainly extremely destructive, may not have been as high as originally thought.

Our Society

During my recent trip to Texas, I was the victim of a hit-and-run driver. Because the person who caused the accident did not stop, I am going to have to pay my insurance deductible, so I am victimized two ways. As a result his item from Instapundit yesterday really hit home:

In his new book, “In Pursuit of Civility”, British historian Keith Thomas tells the story of the most benign developments of the past 500 years: the spread of civilised manners. In the 16th and 17th centuries many people behaved like barbarians. They delighted in public hangings and torture. They stank to high heaven. Samuel Pepys defecated in a chimney. Josiah Pullen, vice-principal of Magdalen Hall, Oxford, urinated while showing a lady around his college, “still holding the lady fast by the hand”. It took centuries of painstaking effort – sermons, etiquette manuals and stern lectures – to convert them into civilised human beings.
Reading Thomas’s book on a train recently I was gripped by a terrible realisation: everything our forebears worked so hard to achieve is now reversing. A process that took centuries has been undone in just a few decades.

Regardless of whether you believed Brett Kavanaugh should have been confirmed and whether you like Ted Cruz or not, the recent incivility is more than am embarrassment for our nation. Recall last year Republican congressmen were shot and Steve Scalise was nearly killed. Rand Paul was attacked and seriously injured in his front yard.

It is fine to disagree about politics or anything else. But, do it in a civil and respectful manner.

Also from Instapundit:
“So let’s all appreciate Elizabeth Warren’s contribution to the demolition of America’s corrupt affirmative action regime. It is long past time that we stopped classifying each other by race and bestowing benefits on that basis. Warren’s message is liberating: we are pretty much all Indians, or Hispanics, or African-Americans now. So let’s move on.”

We are all children of God which means we are worthy of love and respect. Let's stop worrying about color, heritage, etc., etc.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Global Warming: Is There Anything It Can't Do?!

Of course, some would stay, "this makes is really serious." If interested, the article is here.

I'm Sure They'll Get It Right Eventually

click to enlarge

President Trump is Correct About Storms

I do not personally care for President Trump. I like many of his polices but don't care for the man. That said, Lesley Stahl was wrong and President Trump was right in his 60 Minutes interview last night:

Hurricanes are not getting worse. 

Here are the IPCC's exact words from its brand new report.
Tropical cyclones meteorologists' jargon for tropical storms + hurricanes. We have illustrated that same point on this blog more times than I can count.

60 Minutes' claim hurricanes are getting worse = "fake news."

Great Moments in Airport Security

Airport security in Rome October 2 closed the airport because of ... coconuts. Geez.