Hurricanes Have NOT Gotten Worse As Global Temperatures Have Warmed

 Two weeks ago, as Hurricane Delta was approaching the Louisiana coast, the usual suspects were trying to convince the public that hurricanes are getting worse due to global warming. That simply is not true. I'm going to run down the evidence so you can see for yourself. 

The United States

With a big thank you to Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. for compiling the data, here is the record of yearly landfalling hurricanes in the United States. The trend line is slightly down. 

If global warming was causing hurricanes to increase, the bars on the graph would be more or less consistently moving up along with global temperatures (orange background).

Global Hurricanes

There is no effect here, either. The ACE index (above) is a peer-reviewed metric that combines hurricane number and intensity. The green line is the global ACE since 1972. We can't go back farther because we didn't have global satellite coverage which is essential for computing the index. As you can see, the ACE is unchanged over this period while temperatures have risen.

If global warming was causing hurricanes to increase, the graph would look something like this.

The above graph is for illustration purposes, it is not a projection of actual data. 

You'll note the two graphs look nothing alike. Warning temperatures have not affect global or U.S. hurricanes. 

Worldwide - All Disasters

Courtesy of Bjorn Lomborg, the costs of disasters is going down worldwide -- not up -- as the global warming alarmists want you to believe. 

Please note: Because of its importance, I am leaving this post up for a few days. Also, I am deep in editing the manuscript of my third book, so I will not be available to post new content for a few days. 

Senator Harris Does Not Understand the Difference Between Greenhouse Gasses and Air and Water Pollution

Oy! 

As late as the 1960's air and water pollution in many parts of the nation made the air unsafe to breathe and, in some areas, the water unsafe to drink. The latter is still true in areas like Flint, Michigan.

However, greenhouse gases have nothing to do with air and water pollution. There is no reason you should fear water and air over greenhouse gasses. 

Remains of Pearl Harbor Sailor Returned

The remains of Navy Fireman First Class, Rex E. Wise, were returned to his family in Braman, Oklahoma, yesterday on what would have been his 100th birthday. 

Sailor Wise was one of 429 on the USS Oklahoma which was sunk at Pearl Harbor by a Japanese torpedo. The casket was on a flight to Wichita's Eisenhower National Airport and was then transferred via hearse and honor guard to Oklahoma. The full story is here. 

Welcome home, Mr. Wise. And, rest in peace. 

Something Happened to My Story About the Banning of the Biden Corruption Story

 It disappeared once. So, I reposted it. It has disappeared again. Instead, we see this:

I don't know what is going on. Blogger, the blog publishing platform I use, is owned by Google. You can make of what what you will. 

Since I do not have time to keep doing this, here are the links and we'll see if they disappear again:

https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

-- and --

https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/inside-hunter-bidens-murky-history-of-business-dealings-in-china/ 

I highly recommend you read the stories regardless of your politics, if nothing else as a protest to this unAmerican censorship. 

Additional: More on the blocking of the story and censorship of tweets is here: https://www.thenewneo.com/2020/10/14/media-says-pay-no-attention-to-that-hunter-biden-story-behind-the-curtain/

This Evening's Wichita Sky

The smoke from the wildfire near Ft. Collins, Colorado, has drifted over Wichita's sky this evening. This is what the sky looked like at 6:35pm CDT from my backyard. 

Note to Readers

 I am deep into the second edit of my latest book manuscript and am not able to blog much this week. 

Vote in Person in Three Weeks

Remember: "When you control the mail, you control...information" and votes!! But, there are already too many reports of irregularities when it comes to voting by mail in 2020.

If you want your vote to count, I recommend you vote in person.  

No, Hurricanes Are NOT Getting More Frequent

 On October 4, I posted scientific statistics that refuted that day's 60 Minutes and others' contention that global warming was causing stronger and more numerous hurricanes globally.

In case you are interested, the long term (1900-2020) trend in United States landfalling hurricanes is also down. The statistics include Hurricane Delta, the hurricane which moved ashore in Louisiana Friday.

Bottom line: Whether it is the United States or worldwide, hurricanes are not getting worse.

That said, hurricanes can be absolutely devastating to people and to society as a whole. The Weather Channel has a poignant story involving one of the victims of hurricanes Delta and Laura. 

Sunday Fun: A Quote From the Brilliant Dr. Thomas Sowell

This quote is pertinent during this election season.

I Dislike Political Posts But This One is Necessary

 It has been said, "whenever your enemies tell you what they are going to do, you should believe them." Keith Olberman put out this statement two days ago:

“So, let us brace ourselves. The task is two-fold: the terrorist Trump must be defeated, must be destroyed, must be devoured at the ballot box, and then he, and his enablers, and his supporters, and his collaborators, and the Mike Lees and the William Barrs, and Sean Hannitys, and the Mike Pences, and the Rudy Gullianis and the Kyle Rittenhouses and the Amy Coney Barretts must be prosecuted and convicted and removed from our society while we try to rebuild it and to rebuild the world Trump has destroyed by turning it over to a virus.”

Unfortunately, it doesn't stop there.

ADDITION: This is a former cabinet member under President Clinton.

These people cannot be allowed anywhere near the seats of power.

I urge you factor these statements in when you decide how you wish to vote. 

Hurricane Delta Has Made Landfall

The storm made landfall about 6pm near the town of Creole, Louisiana. 

Hurricane Delta Update 2:15pm Friday

This satellite image from 2:02pm, shows the poorly-defined eye of the storm (there is no radar echo over most of the southwest half of the eye) moving north northeast. It will make landfall this afternoon between Camera and Intracoastal City, Louisiana. 

At 2pm, Delta has maximum winds of 105 mph and a central pressure of 966 millibars. That makes it a category 2 storm in wind intensity. However, it will be a serious storm in terms of storm surge. There are already reports of water 4' above sea level along the Louisiana coast.

The chances of tornadoes will increase the next few hours with a significant risk in the yellow area.

Hurricane Delta, 9:25am Friday

The storm continues to move in the direction of a landfall along the Louisiana coast south of Lake Charles. The peak gusts in the hurricane are around 120 mph but I believe they will weaken a bit before landfall. While a serious storm, it will not be as destructive as Laura. 

Re-Strengthening Hurricane Delta, 4:10pm

10pm Update: As expected, the peak wind increased to 120 mph.

I still believe the peak gusts will be around 105-110 mph at landfall.

The rest of the forecast is unchanged.

--- original posting ---

5

Re-intensifying Hurricane Delta at 3:46pm. 

While the winds have increased a bit at ocean level (they are 115 mph); the Hurricane Hunters are now measuring peak winds of 138 mph winds aloft. Those stronger winds, along with some lightning near the eye, might be a sign further intensification is possible. 

At landfall winds of around 105-110 mph are likely. This would be sufficient to cause significant damage but would be less than the wind speeds of Hurricane Laura.

Major Storm Surge is forecasted.

Here are the times of arrival of winds 40 mph or stronger.

Even though utility crews have not finished the job of fixing the grid after Laura's visit, they are going to be highly challenged again.

Safety measures should be rushed to completion. Safety Recommendations With COVID Factored In:

• Make a hotel/motel reservation well inland. There is no point to getting on the road and finding everything already sold out. Be sure and cancel if you do not need the room. In this case, I would go west (e.g., Lake Charles, Beaumont) to stay away from both winds and flooding. 
• Make provisions for infirm friends/relatives well in advance. 
• Get prescriptions filled before you evacuate. 
• Put an app like AccuWeather's on your smartphone. It will keep track of your location and automatically provide the latest emergency warnings. 
• Your "Go-Kit" should include at least two masks per person, soap, hand sanitizers, disinfectant wipes and, if available, disinfectant spray. 
• Fill your car with fuel. I still recommend a road atlas or map in addition to whatever navigation system you might have. 
• Power failures are likely. If you have a generator, fill it with fuel. If you wish to purchase a portable generator, do not put it in the garage, indoors, or anywhere near an air intake. Carbon monoxide is a danger. Nearly half of the fatalities from Hurricane Laura were from carbon monoxide after the storm. 
• Consider taking your passport or putting it in your safe deposit box. If the worst happens, you'll need it to prove identity for disaster documents. It will be difficult to recover in a ruined home.
• Take at least two large bottles of water for each family member along with protein bars or other easy-to-carry food. 
• If you decide to stay home, make sure you have a working fire extinguisher, non-electric can opener, and a first aid kit. 
• If you encounter flooding, remember: Turn around, don't drown!

Hurricane Delta Update: 10:10am Thursday

Hurricane Warning for Louisiana Coast for Landfall Friday

Storm Surge Warning for Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama Coasts

For the first time (10:45a), Delta has a well-defined eye. 

Pressure has dropped 4 additional millibars since 10am. 

Here is the latest on Hurricane Delta which is now moving toward the Louisiana coast. The storm is slowly restrengthening as it moves north. Winds are 105 mph and the central pressure is 968 millibars.

Forecast Path:

The wind speed at landfall is forecasted to be 105 mph. 

Storm Surge Warning

There is a risk of tornadoes (the brown area has the higher risk) from 7am Friday to 7am Saturday in the areas shaded.

There is a serious risk of inland flooding. The dot near Alexandria, LA is a forecast of ten inches of rain.

Safety Recommendations With COVID Factored In:

• Make a hotel/motel reservation well inland. There is no point to getting on the road and finding everything already sold out. Be sure and cancel if you do not need the room. In this case, I would go west (e.g., Lake Charles, Beaumont) to stay away from both winds and flooding. 
• Make provisions for infirm friends/relatives well in advance. 
• Get prescriptions filled before you evacuate. 
• Put an app like AccuWeather's on your smartphone. It will keep track of your location and automatically provide the latest emergency warnings. 
• Your "Go-Kit" should include at least two masks per person, soap, hand sanitizers, disinfectant wipes and, if available, disinfectant spray. 
• Fill your car with fuel. I still recommend a road atlas or map in addition to whatever navigation system you might have. 
• Power failures are likely. If you have a generator, fill it with fuel. If you wish to purchase a portable generator, do not put it in the garage, indoors, or anywhere near an air intake. Carbon monoxide is a danger. Nearly half of the fatalities from Hurricane Laura were from carbon monoxide after the storm. 
• Consider taking your passport or putting it in your safe deposit box. If the worst happens, you'll need it to prove identity for disaster documents. It will be difficult to recover in a ruined home.
• Take at least two large bottles of water for each family member along with protein bars or other easy-to-carry food. 
• If you decide to stay home, make sure you have a working fire extinguisher, non-electric can opener, and a first aid kit. 
• If you encounter flooding, remember: Turn around, don't drown!

From a Victim of Hurricane Laura Who Is Now in the Path of Hurricane Delta

A Twitter friend of mine asked me to publicize his sister's tweet.

I'll have a complete update on the storm about 10:10 this morning. 

Hurricane Warning For the Louisiana Coast

The red highlighted coast is under a hurricane warning. 

There is a storm surge warning for the red area below.

Hurricane Watch on Northern Gulf Coast

Winds gusted to at least 104 mph as Hurricane Delta moved through Cancun. A hurricane watch (pink) has been issued for the far east Texas coast and the Louisiana coast of the Mississippi Delta. 

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to regain major hurricane status before it makes landfall on Friday. I am forecasting a major storm surge will affect the Louisiana coast and points east as far as Mobile Bay. 

Here is the storm surge forecast.

It is time to make precautions on the Louisiana coast as the new run of models indicates that is where the storm is currently headed. Safety Recommendations With COVID Factored In:

• Make a hotel/motel reservation well inland. There is no point to getting on the road and finding everything already sold out. Be sure and cancel if you do not need the room. In this case, I would go west (e.g., Lake Charles, Beaumont) to stay away from both winds and flooding. 
• Make provisions for infirm friends/relatives well in advance. 
• Get prescriptions filled before you evacuate. 
• Put an app like AccuWeather's on your smartphone. It will keep track of your location and automatically provide the latest emergency warnings. 
• Your "Go-Kit" should include at least two masks per person, soap, hand sanitizers, disinfectant wipes and, if available, disinfectant spray. 
• Fill your car with fuel. I still recommend a road atlas or map in addition to whatever navigation system you might have. 
• Power failures are likely. If you have a generator, fill it with fuel. If you wish to purchase a portable generator, do not put it in the garage, indoors, or anywhere near an air intake. Carbon monoxide is a danger. Nearly half of the fatalities from Hurricane Laura were from carbon monoxide after the storm. 
• Consider taking your passport or putting it in your safe deposit box. If the worst happens, you'll need it to prove identity for disaster documents. It will be difficult to recover in a ruined home.
• Take at least two large bottles of water for each family member along with protein bars or other easy-to-carry food. 
• If you decide to stay home, make sure you have a working fire extinguisher, non-electric can opener, and a first aid kit. 

Quick Update on Delta

Here is the satellite image from 7:15pm. The storm is an a dangerous Cat 4 with 145 mph winds and pressure of 953 millibars. On its forecasted path, it will do serious damage to the City of Cancun, Mexico. 

As to the United States, the forecast path is still forecasted to be similar to the forecast made this morning (see below).  If you live near the Gulf Coast in Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama, please prepare for what could be a major storm surge. 

Unfortunately, I had a medical procedure this afternoon and I am not able to write any more at this time.  

Update on Hurricane Delta, 10am Tuesday

Well, that didn't take long. Delta is now a Cat 4 with 130 mph winds. Pressure is now 954 millibars. Further strengthening is likely before the storm reaches the Yucatan Peninsula (10:20am).

--- original posting ---

This is a satellite image of Hurricane Delta as of 9:41am. The storm has a central pressure of 955 mb and maximum winds of 115 mph (Cat 3) which makes it a "major" hurricane. The storm is still intensifying. Delta is expected to be an extremely dangerous Cat 4 hurricane -- with 140 to 145 mph winds --  when it arrives on the Yucatan. My opinion: People in Cancun and Cozumel should evacuate coastal areas. 

Below is the National Hurricane Center's forecast.

M = major hurricane. H = hurricane. Red = hurricane warning. 

Please do not focus on the exact path at the time of landfall in the United States. It could occur anywhere in the white dotted area. The hurricane is still expected to be dangerous at that time with a serious storm surge. 

It is time to make precautions on the Louisiana coast as the new run of models indicates that is where the storm is currently headed. Safety Recommendations With COVID Factored In:

• Make a hotel/motel reservation well inland. There is no point to getting on the road and finding everything already sold out. Be sure and cancel if you do not need the room. In this case, I would go west (e.g., Lake Charles, Beaumont) to stay away from both winds and flooding. 
• Make provisions for infirm friends/relatives well in advance. 
• Get prescriptions filled before you evacuate. 
• Put an app like AccuWeather's on your smartphone. It will keep track of your location and automatically provide the latest emergency warnings. 
• Your "Go-Kit" should include at least two masks per person, soap, hand sanitizers, disinfectant wipes and, if available, disinfectant spray. 
• Fill your car with fuel. I still recommend a road atlas or map in addition to whatever navigation system you might have. 
• Power failures are likely. If you have a generator, fill it with fuel. If you wish to purchase a portable generator, do not put it in the garage, indoors, or anywhere near an air intake. Carbon monoxide is a danger. Nearly half of the fatalities from Hurricane Laura were from carbon monoxide after the storm. 
• Consider taking your passport or putting it in your safe deposit box. If the worst happens, you'll need it to prove identity for disaster documents. It will be difficult to recover in a ruined home.
• Take at least two large bottles of water for each family member along with protein bars or other easy-to-carry food. 
• If you decide to stay home, make sure you have a working fire extinguisher, non-electric can opener, and a first aid kit.