Thursday, August 6, 2020

Over The Summer The Masks Have Come Off

As we have discussed on many on many occasions, the catastrophic global warming movement is political, not scientific.
BTW, Eric is the the guy who vowed never to fly again because of the climate crisis. He now admits he has resumed flying, including transcontinental flights.

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Forecasts of Regional Climate Change: "Rife With Errors"

While I disagree with the characterization "climate is much more predictable than we previously thought," this article explains that climate attribution studies ("storm X was caused by global warming") are bunk.

And, here is an excellent (highly recommended) article on the related topic of ascribing global warming effects on individual storms.

If interested, more on this subject, here.

Tuesday, August 4, 2020

9am Update, Extensive Power Outages in the Middle Atlantic Region

Here is a map of homes and business ("customers") without power as a result of now Tropical Storm Isaias.
The electric utility industry says one "customer" = 3.5 people = 2.4 million people without power at present. That number will only grow as the remains of the storm move north.

The current position of the storm is 50 mi. south of Annapolis, Maryland. Recently, a wind gust of 94 mph was clocked at York River (east), Virginia. Multiple tornadoes have been reported this morning.

The radar at 8:50am.
Pink = tornado watch.  Red = tornado warning.  Yellow = flood warning. 

There is a serious risk of tornadoes as the storm continues to move north.

This will be the final bulletin on the storm as local media has pretty well taken over. Please be safe!

Marketing a COVID Vaccine Like Global Warming

For years, Yale and George Mason universities have had 'institutes' to market global warming gloom and doom to the public. A significant amount of the funding comes from our tax dollars.

I've often said if the science is good, it will be convincing. It doesn't need slick Madison Avenue advertising techniques.

Now we learn the federal government is looking to sell us a coronavirus vaccine in much the same way it has tried to sell us global warming. Here is a partial list of the messaging it is trying out along with Yale University.
I don't like the idea of slick marketing for a coronavirus any more than I like it for global warming. 

Monday, August 3, 2020

End of Coverage For the Night

Hurricane Isaias at 11:30pm.
Hurricane Isaias made landfall on the NorthCarolina coast at 11:10pm EDT. Maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with gusts to 100 mph or a little higher. Five foot storm surge.

Damaging tornadoes have been reported.

Many areas of southeast North Carolina are already without power.

Good night.

Hurricane Isaias: Forecast of Inland Winds Has Been Increased

This is very serious if it turns out to be accurate. 
This increase in inland winds is plausible because the Hurricane Hunters just found surface winds of 86 mph in the storm, which is higher than was forecast even a few hours ago. 

If this forecast is correct there will be major power failures, some lasting a week or more in duration. While it is too late on the coast, the people on this map still have time to prepare. Please do so immediately. 

New tornado watch just issued.

Tornado Watch Ahead of Hurricane Isaias

Radar 7:26pm
The forecast (scroll down) still looks good. I wanted to let you know a tornado watch has been issued ahead of Isaias (pink tint). Please monitor the weather the rest of this evening.

UPDATE: 7:36PM, a Hurricane Hunter aircraft just reported sustained winds of 80 mph in Isaias, so the storm may have regained hurricane force. That makes preparation for power failures and serious tree damage even more important. If you live along its forecast (see below), please make sure you are prepared for a power outage that may last for days. 

Update: 7:50PM. Isaias has regained hurricane strength with sustained winds of 80 mph with higher gusts.

No Need to Wear a Mask in This Situation

Watching several sporting events over the weekend, I noticed multiple people who were completely isolated from others wearing masks. An example would be this photographer. He will be there the entire game and it is unlikely he will be approached by others. On a different network, the camera showed isolated photographers and sound people in masks. If that makes them feel more secure, that's great.

But, I want to make sure everyone knows there is literally zero chance of catching any illness when outside by yourself. There is some medical research that shows a decrease in oxygen while wearing a mask, so the fresh air is better.

Power Failures Likely As Isaias Moves Through the Middle Atlantic and Northeast States

While Hurricane/Tropical Storm Isaias "underperformed" many peoples' perceptions in Florida (I'll write an post on that topic later today), it will be strong enough to down tree limbs along and to the east of its path through the Middle Atlantic and Northeast states.

Here are the current forecast peak wind gusts in the Middle Atlantic region.

And, the forecast peak gusts in the Northeast.
So, in the areas of orange, red and brown, prepare for power failures. In some cases, the power failures could last for a few days. 

There are also flash flood watches out for much of the region.

In addition to power failures, flash floods and tree damage, there is a likelihood of tornadoes in the area in brown late today and tonight.
Please prepare accordingly.

Here is the radar view of the storm as of 1:26pm.

Rest in Peace, Wilford Brimley

I thought Wilford Brimey was an under-appreciated actor. Whether it was a relatively light role like Cocoon or as a terrifying bad guy in The Firm, his range was amazing.

The role that was most outstanding was as the U.S. Deputy Attorney General in Absence of Malice. The movie is about malpractice in journalism and malpractice at the Department of Justice. Brimley was the good guy -- and, he made the most of the role. The move also stars Paul Newman and Sally Field.

I cannot find a clip online of his entire performance. But, the movie is more important than ever. If you can find a copy, watch it.

Isaias Update

Isaias is still just below hurricane strength and a hurricane watch continues for parts of the Carolinas' coasts. The forecast is still valid.

Sunday, August 2, 2020

Isaiah Likely Reintensifying

Based on radar, satellite and Hurricane Hunter data, it appears Isaiah will likely restrengthen to hurricane force; perhaps it already has as the Doppler wind speeds have increased significantly the last half hour. This means that people in the Carolinas need to keep a weather eye on the storm as it approaches.
The above is the radar at 10:29pm. Isaiah's has the best eye it has had in its lifetime.

Update 10:50pm: The National Hurricane Center is keeping the storm just below hurricane strength at 70 mph. They are saying the storm may become a hurricane before it makes landfall over the coast of the Carolinas and a hurricane watch has been issued.
Tropical storm watches are in effect from Chesapeake Bay to Rhode Island. Flash flood watches are in effect for much of the Middle Atlantic region. In addition, there is a chance of tornadoes over eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tomorrow.

Delta 191: A Sad Anniversary

Courtesy: Ft. Worth Star-Telegram
Used with permission
Today is the 35th anniversary of the crash at Delta 191 at DFW International Airport. The crash killed   136. Twenty-five were injured; some of the injuries were horrific.

This event was one of the most important in the history of aviation safety. The data collected evaluated Dr. Ted Fujita's hypothesis that downbursts were responsible for an increasing number of airliner crashes. Once this was finally accepted, effective measures could be taken to stop the crashes. Only one has occurred since, in 1994.

Downbursts are just as dangerous as ever. There was a downburst-related crash in Mexico in 2018. It is a combination of training and technology that has allowed us to conquer them in the United States. I devote three chapters of Warnings to this scientific success story. I covered this topic on this blog on past anniversaries:
It is a terrible thing to lose a friend or family member in an airline crash. I hope for survivors and relatives of those killed find some small measure of solace in the fact that this crash led to the elimination of future crashes. 

Hurricane Warnings Dropped

I'm happy to report the official hurricane warnings along the East Coast have been dropped in favor of tropical storm warnings.
Now that the storm is well below hurricane force and since the hurricane warnings have been dropped, this will be the end of my continuous coverage of the storm.

Sunday Fun

Saturday, August 1, 2020

11pm Saturday Tropical Storm Isaias Update

There isn't much more to say with regard to this forecast: The Hurricane Center still believes Isaias will restrengthen slightly back to marginal hurricane strength. As indicated below, I'm skeptical. Regardless, don't let down your guard yet.

Tropical Storm Isaias Update, 6:30pm Saturday

Isaias is making a mighty try at restrengthening as indicates by the lightning (+). Lightning usually means a strengthening tropical system but this one is dealing with so much dry air, it will be a surprise if it can significantly strengthen.

In any case, while you should not yet discontinue precautions, I will be surprised if hurricane strength winds (sustained winds of 75 mph or stronger) occur on the Florida coast. The storm has slowed considerably and seems to be moving more toward the NNW rather than northwest.

I'll update at least once again this evening.

Reminder: You will find additional information from me at Twitter @usweatherexpert

5:05pm Tropical Storm Isaias Update

The National Hurricane Center has dropped Isaias back to tropical storm strength at 70 mph which is likely generous based on the hurricane hunter data from the flight now in the storm. Both the radar and satellite indicate a poorly organized storm.
Here is the satellite image from 4:55pm. The center looks very weak. However, new thunderstorms (CB) are developing north of the center and will give the system a last chance to reintensify before its approach to Florida (upper left).

Here is the new forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
The amber area is the radius of 40 mph winds or greater. Note they forecast the storm to regain hurricane strength when it is near the Palm Beach Co. coast midday Sunday.

It is then forecast to make a second landfall near the South Carolina - North Carolina border early Tuesday morning.

Hurricane Isaias Update Noon Saturday

While there is no hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at the moment, there is clear evidence Isaias is going to, as meteorologists say, underperform. Of course, that's a very good thing.
The center of the hurricane (circle) has moved out from under the "central dense overcast" (CDO). In addition, the radar presentation is very unimpressive. That combination is almost always a sign of weakening.

That is not to say there won't be strong, perhaps even damaging, wind gusts in Florida. However, this storm will likely underperform some expectations if what I am reading on Twitter is correct.

For more on the expected level of damage, go here.

9:30am Saturday Hurricane Isaias Update

The storm has maintained 85 mph sustained winds over a small area. The good news is strengthening is highly unlikely as it approaches the coast of Florida.
Brown is the area of 75-85 mph winds. Amber is the area of sustained winds of 40 mph or stronger.

Here is the forecast.
Isaias is expected to be a tropical storm with winds ~60 mph when it makes a second landfall in eastern North Carolina.