Saturday, August 27, 2016

Tropical System Looking Slightly Healthier

The weather system southeast of Miami is looking a little better organized this morning and it is moving into an area with both warm water and less wind shear. So, it may strengthen a bit, especially when it moves past Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.

So, stay tuned.

"Home on the Range" -- The Movie

The state song of Kansas has quite a colorful history. It is being shot in Wichita or a made for TV movie. The story is here.

Friday, August 26, 2016

Little Change in Florida Advice

The disorganized weather system continues to head toward south Florida with no signs of better organization from what I can see.

I continue to suggest that people with special needs (see below) get special attention as the storm approaches. Otherwise, I don't believe the rest of the population in south Florida needs to take special precautions.

The storm may go into the Gulf and may intensify there, but there is time to wait and see for that region.

Mobilization Like WWII's to Fight...Global Warming??

Details of a terrible idea, here.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

No News on Tropical System

I really don't have anything to add with respect to the system in the tropics. Yes, I still think it will affect Florida south of I-4. Whether it is stronger than gusty winds and very heavy (with flooding quite possible) rains is still questionable.

Mocking "The Consensus"

I often mock the "consensus" on catastrophic global warming because "consensus" has no place in science. Here are some great examples.

Science is about what can be objectively proven. It is not decided by polls of scientists.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

The Mess in the Atlantic

The red "I", courtesy of the University of Wisconsin, is the meteorological center of the messy system in the Atlantic that has (relatively) strong winds (gusts to 60 mph) but no real organization.

So, should you change your plans if you live in Florida or are planning to visit? Go ahead and get frustrated with meteorologists: I don't blame you.

The problem is that our tropical storm and hurricane forecasting techniques are built around weather systems that have a well-defined center which this mess certainly does not. The problem is that the system is headed in the general direction of the Bahamas and then the United States. Water temperatures are extremely high and the system -- might -- strengthen rapidly when it gets over that water. Or, it might not do anything just as it has refused to organize the last couple of days.

I'd like to be able to tell you we'll have a lot better idea tomorrow but the weather system did not get better organized today as I had expected yesterday.

So, what to do?

If you live in Florida south of I-4: I repeat my advice of this morning. If someone with special needs is under your care (who needs continuous power or special medicine, for example) it is time to act now to insure those needs are met. Gusty winds and very heavy rains are possible even if the storm does not organize into a named tropical storm.

For everyone else, please keep an eye on the local weather forecasts and be prepared to take hurricane precautions if the forecast indicates. My personal opinion is that I would not plan a discretionary trip to Florida this weekend but would wait a week or so.

If you wish to tell your friends about this blog, it would be appreciated. I promise hype-free information, along with my colleagues at AccuWeather, that is aimed at being genuinely helpful rather than generating clicks.

A Superb, To-The-Point Article About Who the REAL Scientists Are

Please read the entire article, here. In the meantime here is what you need to now to tell the difference between a real scientist and an advocate masquerading as a scientist:
  • good scientist would rather live with an unpleasant truth than embrace a comfortable lie.
  • Good scientists do not suppress debate, they insist on it.
  • Good scientists with opposing views attack one another’s arguments, but not each other.
  • good scientist knows that skepticism, whether or not it is the sign of a heretic, is actually essential to the practice of good science.
  • good scientist would rather be right than be President.
  • good scientist knows that 2 + 2 = 4, always has, and always will, no matter who occupies the positions of power in politics or culture.
  • good scientist knows that science is not a democracy, that scientific truth is not determined by a show of hands, and that consensus and authority are there to be challengednot to be accepted without question.
Hat tip to Dr. Judy Curry. 

Tropical Threat?

If I were in Florida's Penninsula, I would now start paying attention to the developing tropical system. I would not do anything yet with one exception:
  • If you have a special needs person (i.e., must have an operable breathing device or special prescription drugs) living with you or under your care, I would be thinking about purchasing a generator, getting prescriptions renewed, etc. 
At this moment, a hurricane hunter aircraft is on the way to the low pressure area in the Atlantic and will report back. I suspect by early evening we'll have a much better idea as to the future of the storm. 

I'll try to provide no-hype/no-panic information alongside my colleagues at AccuWeather

100-Year 'Sustainable' School Closed After Six Years

There may be a time in the future when 'sustainable' is cost-effective and green energy makes sense
but here is another example that day is not yet here. 

Another $20,000,000 (in U.S. dollars) down the drain to the sustainability gods. When are we going to stop this idiotic, and expensive, waste of taxpayer dollars across the Western world? Think about how many schools this money would buy in Africa??

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Bill Nye the Mis-Information Guy

Will he ever get one of these interviews right? Don't hold your breath.

The man knows nothing about meteorology or climate. Nothing.

Nye calls the Louisiana rainstorms "hard to forecast" when they were very well forecast. This blog started talking about it six days before the storm began!

Nye blames climate change for the flood. Flooding is getting less bad in recent decades!!!
He then calls the CNN meteorologists (even though no one asked him), "climate change denier meteorologists." Unlike CNN's meteorologists, Nye has no, zero education in meteorology or climate.

So, here is what is occurring in the United States' climate in recent decades:
  • Tornadoes? Down.
  • Hurricanes? Way down.
  • Floods? Much less damaging (see above). 
  • Rainfall? Up in the Farm Belt.
  • Growing season? Longer.
If this is what global warming is going to do for us, what's not to like?!

Every time CBS or CNN has Nye on the air, it is a factual debacle.

ADDITION: From NPR (who else) earlier today:
From the article:
But Sadiye agreed that the moral bar for a second child is much higher. The couple is "one and done." Any more children will come through adoption.
Travis also argues that someone who doesn't feel that deep longing to procreate is morally compelled to think twice before having any children at all...
But if his idea seems like a last-ditch Hail Mary play, he wouldn't disagree.
"The situation is bleak, it's just dark," he says. "Population engineering, maybe it's an extreme move. But it gives us a chance."
So, repeating the above, here is what is occurring in the United States' climate in recent decades:
  • Tornadoes? Down.
  • Hurricanes? Way down.
  • Floods? Much less damaging (see above). 
  • Rainfall? Up in the Farm Belt.
  • Growing season? Longer.
If that sounds "bleak" to you, perhaps you need to brush up on your vocabulary!

My Advice to Those Along the Gulf and Florida-Georgia Coasts

Will there be a tropical storm? Don't know.
Will there be a hurricane? Don't know.
If there is a hurricane, where will it hit? Again, I don't know.

That said, it I were a governmental or corporate emergency manager in in coastal Florida, Georgia or the Gulf coast to the east of Texas, I would be dusting off the hurricane emergency procedures and seeing if they need to be updated. It has been nearly 11 years since a major hurricane hit the United States and many things have changed since them. Just in case the streak should end, you want to take this time to take a look at procedures and make sure they are both current and appropriate. 

To the public at large? Nothing needs to be done at this point. 

Significant Tornado Risk: Kansas and Oklahoma

There is a significant tornado risk in southern Kansas and north central Oklahoma through this evening. Please keep up on local weather information.

Let the Hype Begin!!

As previously mentioned, the more active state of the tropics the past week has led to almost silly speculation as to when/if a hurricane might hit the United States.

Now that we are 5-6 days (at the earliest) out from a potential landfall, we have really seen the hype ramp up. But, here is the problem: The hurricane hunter plane that investigated the system a few hours ago showed it has not strengthened or organized.

So, there is no need for undue concern. If things look like they may become serious, AccuWeather and I will keep you informed.

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