Saturday, October 23, 2021

Forecasted Rainfall Amounts for Next Week

Every state of the lower 48 will receive significant rain. West of the Continental Divide the easing of the drought will continue. Flooding rains are quite possible in both New England and California. In a number of areas, the 2021 fall harvest will be delayed. 

This week's rainfall to 7am is below.
If the current pattern holds, the drought in the West will be significantly improved in ten days. The forecasted rains will also make sure that 2022 winter wheat crop east of U.S. 83 will be off to a good start. 

Heads Up: United States East of Rockies!!

From tonight through Thursday, there is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms with some accompanied by tornadoes in a strong than average autumn severe weather period.

Tonight
Tonight, the only real threat is hail in the Lower Missouri River Valley. 
Note: in the unlikely event a strong thunderstorm develops in south central Kansas, it would have significant tornado potential. But, the atmosphere is too "capped" and I don't think thunderstorms will develop. 

Sunday
This is important
Missouri and the Arkansas Ozarks in the hatched area an elevated risk of tornadoes, some could be strong. This includes Columbia, St. Louis, the Lake of the Ozarks, Brandon, Table Rock Lake and Fayetteville. While I will update on this threat tomorrow tomorrow morning, it is essential to make sure your shelter area is ready today. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes This includes Tulsa, Little Rock, Cape Giradeau, Quincy and Ft. Smith. 

Monday
The weather system will have weakened a bit but a few tornadoes are still possible. 

Tuesday
This is important.
This may be a classic tornado outbreak in the central and southern Great Plains provided adequate moisture flows north. The specifics will become clears in a day or two. 

Wednesday
Tornadoes are possible in the outlined area. This forecast may have to be upgraded as we get closer to Wednesday.

If you live in the outlined areas, it will be important to monitor the weather on those days. 

Finally, here is the forecast rainfall for the next five days.

Friday, October 22, 2021

Another Global Warming Story That Is a Huge Exaggeration

The Weather Channel is telling us that some roads in Monroe County, Florida, which is the Florida Keys, will be "underwater" in five years

And, fixing 'the threat' comes at a "staggeringly high cost."

The story, typical for global warming alarmism stories, did not cite any science or databases. 

So, I did the work The Weather Channel should have done. 

The gold standard for sea level measurements is the University of Colorado. According to its data (above), sea level will rise 1/2" over the next five years (till 2025, as stated in the story) and 1.1 inches between now and 2031. A half-inch sea level rise will not put any road in Florida "underwater."

I've never understood why The Weather Channel has adopted extreme global warming alarmist positions. Between that and running shows about truckers during tornado outbreaks and NYC floods, I can't find much of a reason to watch anymore. 

Thursday, October 21, 2021

He Runs on Wind Energy and It Was Calm Outside

From this evening's CNN downhill Town Hall [stupid spell check]. 

A Note to Blog Readers - Long Range Forecasts

There's been a lot of news today about NOAA releasing its winter outlook. You will not see it on this blog, nor will you see AccuWeather's, the Weather Channel's, nor the others. 

I do have respect for Joe Bastardi's outlook (updated here), but even then I would urge caution. 

Stock Photography of the Supply Chain Crisis

As the supply chain crisis deepens across the nation, I have photography that may help with associated news coverage. You'll find a number of photos related to logistics and supply chains at my ShutterStock collection

You will also find my weather photography at Adobe Stock photography

BTW: There will be considerable storminess this weekend and it will be covered in this blog. 

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

And, Fidel, Pol Pot, Et Cetera...

Is it occurring to anyone that, the closer we get to socialism, the empty shelves -- a trademark of socialism -- get more common?

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Palmer Drought Index As of October 12

The drought in the West and the northern Great Plains continued while the developing drought in the winter wheat belt has eased a bit. 

Over the next seven days, the drought will be dented on the West Coast.
More than ten inches of rain in northern California will refill reservoirs. 

Feature: A Powerful Piece About "Forever Wars"

Concise piece that I highly recommend. Click here

Monday, October 18, 2021

Sunday, October 17, 2021

Saturday, October 16, 2021

Video of a Dangerous, and Avoidable, Amtrak Crash

This has been a bad week for train accidents. 

The blue arrow points to the crossings' signal box, which I'll come back to in a moment.


A reminder:  If you observe a car or truck stopped on the tracks or other irregularity, call the number on the crossing's signal box immediately. This goes to the railroad and it is the fastest way to get trains stopped. Then, call 9-1-1.

If a crash cannot be avoided, get away from the tracks first then, if possible, run in the direction from which the train is coming (while staying well away from the tracks). That way, any debris from the crash will be carried away from you. 

Earlier this week, a Chicago man pulled a man in distress away from a car stuck on the tracks. I appreciate the Chicago man's heroism in pulling the man to safety. Video is below. 

Two Important Tweets

Climate change is a genuine issue. But, almost all of the solutions (other than nuclear and hydro) are grifts. Wind energy is the biggest grift of all

The FBI, more and more, acts like the KGB. It should be abolished

Friday, October 15, 2021

The Utter Stupidity of Wind Energy

Big Climate's focus groups have been deployed again and we now have the latest excuse for the failures of wind energy. It is called global stilling.


The Financial Times' article presents the graph below as a rationalization for why all of the expensive wind farms aren't producing. 

The bottom line is that wind energy -- which was put in to fight climate change -- is made even less effective because of climate change.

Yet, we are expected to install even more wind energy to fight climate change.

Also, this 'explanation' makes it impossible that tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, blizzards, etc., are made worse by global warming (has to do with both pressure and temperature gradients). This shows how desperate Big Climate is to keep climate alarmism front and center.

This is utter insanity.

Thursday, October 14, 2021

My Photography Is Now Available on Shutterstock

I am pleased to report that my photography is now available on shutterstock, the world's largest library of stock photography. This is in addition to my photography on Adobe Stock Photography

Tornado Watch in Effect. NO, It Isn't a Storm!

The curse of wind farms continues.

In the darkness Tuesday night, with a tornado watch in effect until 6am, I received this tweet.
A person in the area was worried that a serious storm would develop and threaten. 

Except there was no storm at all. It, along with the little echoes northeast of Enid, are wind farms. These are what meteorologists call "false echoes." 

Last night, at 9:36pm, a tornado was in progress near Copeland, Kansas, moving northeast at 60 mph -- a mile a minute. Yet, we were having to explain the wind farms (the irregular echoes like the ones northeast of Enid, above, and we had to take time to manipulate the radar presentation to minimize them. That was necessary so people in he path of the tornado would not be confused. 

There are many reasons why wind power is a terrible idea. While this is relatively small when measured against wind failing in extreme heat and cold, it is another item -- like killing wildlife -- that must be put on the "anti-" part of the scale. 

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Recap of Last Night's Storms

While there surveys to be done and a lot of data to compile, the overnight tornado risk we forecasted certainly materialized. 
There was a tornado in the Oklahoma City area around 5 o'clock this morning. No injuries; we don't yet know the extent of the damage. 

There was scattered damage throughout Kansas and Oklahoma. 
This is a photo of one of several collapsed hangers at the Clinton-Sherman airport in western Oklahoma. 

Last night's storm coverage featured one of the most amazing things I've seen in my 50 years of meteorology.

Meteorologist Lisa Teachman was anchoring the severe weather coverage on KSN TV in Kansas. Meteorologist Erika Paige was in the mobile weather unit. Erika chased down a tornado west of Dodge City at night under difficult conditions. The type of tornado Erika televised is known to meteorologists as a QLCS tornado and they usually occur with poor visibility. The tornado was only visible with lightning. 

Part of the video of the encounter is here;
Think about this: you've been chasing storms for hours. You are tired, likely hungry, it is dark and somewhat dangerous yet you provide this outstanding coverage for your viewers. 

Why is this important? Studies show -- unquestionably -- that people are more likely to take shelter when they see live tornado images. 

This was extraordinary, heroic work: it is dangerous to do this if you don't know what you are doing. 

Congratulations to Erika and Lisa! That is the best of meteorology.

Wheat Belt Rainfall Report and Forecast

Why Is This Wheat Report So Important? We are facing "unprecedented shortages." 

Below is the rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 7am CDT.

Below is the 7-day rainfall ending this morning. 
This region is important right now because of the recently planted 2022 winter wheat crop. The area needed rain and these rains should be sufficient to get the crop off to a good start. 

For comparison, this is the Palmer Drought Index as of October 7.
Reds and browns are dry. Greens and blues are wet. 

Rainfall Forecast
Below is the rainfall amount forecast for the next five days. 

Did You Receive Large Hail at Your Location?

One inch hailstones fall at a speed of about 90 mph.

If you received hail damage from the recent storms, it is essential to file a claim as soon as possible. A circuit court recently ruled that you can be barred from recovering from your loss if you wait

Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC does forensic work investigating weather-related damage and the storms that cause them. We testify to juries and in depositions, when necessary. Call us any time for storms anywhere in North America.