Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Both Droughts Improve

While everyone is talking about the cold, I'd like to talk about the two areas of drought in the U.S.A.

Let's begin with drought conditions as of Saturday (they are measured once each week).

Since Saturday, some good rains have fallen in the Southeast, although not enough around Atlanta and the I-75 corridor to Spartanburg.

Things are looking better in both the western and eastern drought areas the next five days.
We'll keep updating from time to time!!

CO2: Good or Bad?

Keeping in mind we must feed a growing population, take a look at this essay.

Monday, December 5, 2016

A GREAT Global Warming Thought Experiment

While his comments are sometimes really "out there," I enjoy reading Scott Adams' blog. Earlier today, he wrote about global warming. The title of the piece?

He makes some very good points that I know frustrate many.

If you have been involved in any climate change debates online or in person, you know they always take the following trajectory: Climate science believers state that all the evidence, and 98% of scientists, are on the same side. Then skeptics provide links to credible-sounding articles that say the science is bunk, and why. How the heck can you – a non-expert – judge who is right?
You probably are not a scientist, and that means you can’t independently evaluate any of the climate science claims. You didn’t do the data collection or the experiments yourself. You could try to assess the credibility of the scientists using your common sense and experience, but let’s face it – you aren’t good at that. So what do you do?
As long-time readers of this blog know, I am certain humans affect the climate. But, I am also not nearly sold on the scientific case for catastrophic global warming. It is far too weak to base spending (literally) trillions of dollars. I am also an atmospheric scientist, so I'm sure Mr. Adams would say, with reason, "You are just one of the many scientific voices on the subject," and he would be right.

So, let me try to persuade him of my belief there is no immediate catastrophic global warming crisis. I propose to do so by going outside of scientific channels.

Also, today, I ran across this in a travel piece:
You are probably asking, "What in the world does this have to do with global warming?"

This a brand new resort in a United Nations biosphere area. Question: If global warming and the (long overdue) increase in the rate of sea level rise it is supposed to cause in the Maldives -- which is supposed be among the first and most severely affected locations -- why would anyone construct a new resort there?!

In fact, there is a new construction boom in the Maldives. What does that tell us?

A new Four Seasons hotel in a remote, UN-protected, area is a huge, huge investment. Why would  these companies, all of which are for-profit, be building big new hotels if they thought sea level rise was going to accelerate? For that matter, why would they do it if they thought storms were getting worse? Between the two, the probability their investment would be wiped out would be too high. 

What this tells us is that the "smart money," outside of climate science, doesn't think global warming is a big deal. And, that they can construct numerous resorts and hotels at "ground zero" location for climate changes' worst effects. 

I rest my case. 

A Great Christmas Gift

Thank you for all of the purchases of Warnings this past week. Wow. Here is the reaction from one reader about this time last year.
Just this past week, meteorologists saved lives in tornadoes -- no question.

People take the America's unique storm warning system for granted. The story behind it is fascinating.

So, give a gift people will love!

It is available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble and your local bookseller!

ADDITION:

JUST POSTED:
Thanks, Jon!


Sometimes It is What I Do NOT Post...

...that is important. I want to answer the question this morning.

Two weeks ago, the meteorological computer models were projecting a record cold (below zero in many areas) spell for the middle to latter part of this week. While it will be colder in most parts of the U.S. by the end of the week, you never saw those inaccurate forecasts on this blog even though they showed up on Drudge and in many other places.

Now, another one of these silly (20° below zero!!!!) forecasts is showing up and you will not see it here, either.

I (the proprietor of this blog) believe in responsible weather forecasting -- not sensationalism just to generate views. So, you don't see forecasts I don't personally believe.

ADDITION: the 18Z run came in a while ago. This is the same model forecasting the same thing at the same time. At left, the 18Z run yesterday. At right, the 18Z run today! THIS is why I don't post these things!

Tornado Risk: Southeast

To my many friends in the Southeast, "heads up" if you live in the brown area. Tornadoes possible. Please keep up with local weather information.

Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons: Coming Soon to Wichita

We are less than two weeks away! Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons will be in town Friday, December 16, at Hartman Arena. I have front row seats!

If you do not yet have your tickets, you can get them here.

There is a great interview of Frankie by Paul Schaeffer above. Even I, a huge fan since 1964, learned a lot from the interview and really enjoyed it. 

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Serious Flash Flood Risk

I had wanted to keep the "poverty" (see below) good news at the top of the blog today but Mother Nature is intruding. There is a serious risk of flash flooding in the red area today and tomorrow and a significant risk in the yellow areas. Please keep the flash flood safety rules in mind!

Sunday Great News: People Living in Extreme Poverty Lowest Level Ever

click to enlarge
The importance of this cannot be overemphasized. The Green Revolution played an extraordinary role along with the widespread application of the internal combustion engine.

Now, the anti-science, anti-GMO crowd is preventing a second green revolution as well as retarding the progress of affordable and much cleaner energy into impoverished regions of Africa and elsewhere.

But, with some smart political leadership across the world, we could bequeath a much happier and peaceful word to our children and grandchildren.

Friday, December 2, 2016

Thank You, Fox Radio Network

I'm really enjoying providing winter weather forecast and advice to the Fox radio stations this morning. Thanks for having me on!!

Flood Event Likely in East Texas

As much as 9" of rain is on top for east Texas over the next week. Flooding likely.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Denting the Southeast Drought

Here is the latest (Nov. 26) drought index for the Southeast.
Darker orange = more severe drought.

Since then, significant rain has fallen across the region.

Additional rains are on the way. Here is the forecast rainfall for the next five days.
Assuming the 5-day forecast is correct, then the drought will be significantly improved by the middle of next week.

Questions About the Atlanta Tornado

Yes, there was a tornado in the Atlanta Metro area. Some -- morbidly -- seem disappointed there wasn't more damage. I think this is because there was a consistent debris signature on dual-polarization Doppler radar (see posting below). However, the debris signature -- as explained below -- doesn't tell you much, if anything, about the amount of damage.

At AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, we usually watch the wind circulation on the Federal Aviation Administration's Terminal Doppler Weather Radar which, I believe, has better wind detection capability in these situations. Below is an example from my Twitter feed.
The tornado wind signature was tiny and not especially strong. So, I think some may have misinterpreted the size of the debris signature for a more destructive tornado than we hope occurred.

Tornado Has Damaged Parts of West and North Atlanta

We do not have the full details yet, but there has been damage from the tornado (below) in the Atlanta area. You can get locations and times from my Twitter feed:  @usweatherexpert .

Here are three images of lofted debris as measured by dual polarization radar. Important note: The fact there is lofted debris does not mean there was major damage. The debris may be tree limbs, etc.



Keeping in mind, this is a blog about weather rather than news, I'll turn the coverage over my news colleagues with the AccuWeather news staff and regular news sources.

Via Twitter (below) very rough idea of the approximate track of the ATL tornado. Do not yet know whether is was intermittently on the ground yet, etc.