Monday, January 23, 2017

Monday Fun: Congratulations Director Mike Pompeo

Wichita's Mike Pomepo was confirmed as CIA director this evening. I'm sure I join everyone in wishing him success in his new position. He is a very smart person and an excellent choice for the job.

If any of you have seen the movie Zero Dark Thirty, you'll remember that the late James Gandolfini played the CIA director in the movie. Here they are side by side.

Which is which?

Hello, Everyone

With all of the storm warning work over the weekend, I began the week a bit behind. So, it will take me just a little while to catch up.

I do want to make sure that you know about the two areas of storms in the U.S. tomorrow.

The first is in the Northeast. These AccuWeather graphics pretty much tell the story.

Farther west, another winter storm.

If you live in these areas, please plan accordingly.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

That's All For Tonight

After three very long days, I am calling it a night. There are no tornado warnings in effect anywhere in the U.S. and the storms -- which have taken at least 20 lives this weekend -- have calmed down a bit.

Thanks for following the coverage.

6pm EDT Update

Here is a summary of the situation at this point.
After a bit of a lull, several tornado warnings (red polygons) have been issued in Florida and southeast Georgia in the last ten minutes. This is still a potent weather situation. You may wish to make sure your friends and relatives are aware.

We do know there have been tornado fatalities in Georgia, but we do not have any more information as to numbers or exact locations at this point.

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #3

This for central Florida.
According to SPC, there is a high risk of a violent tornado. This includes Orlando, Tampa and Daytona Beach. Please monitor for warnings as the line of thunderstorms moves onshore and strengthens.

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #2

This watch is in effect until 10pm EST. Please make preliminary precautions (see below, scroll down) to take cover.

Large, Violent Tornado in Southern Georgia

Here is what the tornado looked like as it moved through the Albany area.

Radar shows the location of the tornado's circulation at 3:45pm.
If you have friends, relatives or coworkers in the tornado warning areas, please urge them to take cover. This is the type of situation that gives meteorologists nightmares.

High Tornado Risk Extended South

If you live in the brown area or into the areas with the higher numerical values, you need to be prepared for the possibility of a tornado warning being issued. Advice on how to prepare is below, please scroll down. The high tornado risk now extends south to Tampa.

The hatched area is where violent tornadoes are forecast. The tornadoes may continue well after dark.

The New Round of Tornado Warnings Begins

Here is the radar at 2pm Eastern.
There is likely a tornado on the ground just southeast of Tyndall, AFB. Take cover, NOW!  There is a weaker rotation north of Cedar Grove. Both are moving northeast.

This represents the round of tornado warnings we were confident would begin this afternoon. More will be issued. Please keep up with me on Twitter @usweatherexpert . 

1:58pm EST Tornado Forecast Update

Here is my forecast of the highest risk between now and 3pm EST. The storms are moving as fast as 60 mph -- so you won't have much time to take shelter. So, if I were in the purple area, ahead of the storms, I'd be gathering up the kids/infirm relatives and would be monitoring the weather closely.

For Atlanta, there is a second line of storms well to the southwest but could reach the area later this afternoon.


Here we go again. Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watches are rare and they command respect. If you live in the watch area and it is safe to do so (no thunderstorms in the immediate area), prepare now. 
Note that this includes Atlanta where the Packers-Falcons game is going to be played. It also includes Jacksonville and Tallahassee.

Note there is a "high" risk of violent tornadoes along with thunderstorm winds of more than 75 mph ("65+knots").

Please scroll down for preparatory suggestions for this dangerous situation.

Stay tuned for update.

Coverage Update

I will update the blog on the vicious tornadoes forecast for the Southeast periodically. I urge you to also follow me on Twitter  @usweatherexpert .

While I am proud of our blog coverage, if you live in the threatened area (see below), you also need at least two sources for receiving warnings for your local area.

I am expecting the NWS will be issuing additional tornado watches and I will post those when they are issued.

And, if you have ever wondered how meteorologists save lives by forecasting and warning of tornadoes, we have a book for you!

A Terribly Dangerous Day Ahead

There is a high risk of tornadoes the rest of today and this evening in the Southeast.

I wish I had been able to stay up longer last night as at least 11 fatalities occurred when the thunderstorms reintensified (see below). I wanted to save some time for today because it is going to be a terrible day meteorologically.
You'll recall that brown (5%) is the significant threshold for tornadoes. Thirty percent is an extremely high number. The hatched area is where violent tornadoes are forecast.

My advice if you live in these areas? Make sure your family and friends can get to shelter on short notice. If there is someone who is infirm and needs extra time, you might want to pick them up before the storms approach. In addition, make sure you have at least two ways to get warnings in addition to your local television:
  • NOAA WeatherRadio 
  • Sign up for the excellent WeatherCall
  • The AccuWeather app will let you know if a watch or warning is issued. 
  • Put your car in the garage and bring in trampolines or anything that can be blown about. 
As of 11:21 EST, the yellow tinting is current tornado watches and red is current tornado warnings.
Blue is flood warnings. Yellow is severe thunderstorm warnings. Brown is high wind warnings..

I want to salute my colleagues at AccuWeather who have been informing our commercial clients of this danger since Monday. If you have a business that is directly or indirectly affected by weather, you need to check into AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions.

Sunday Fun

Artist Unknown

Saturday, January 21, 2017

11:50pm Severe Weather Update

The NWS particularly dangerous situation tornado watch continues until 3am.
But, note there are no storms to the west of the watch and the storms in the watch itself have been weakening the last two hours.

Here is what I believe is occurring:
The low pressure system over the northeast Texas Panhandle (above) and the trough extending to near Houston are behind schedule. The low was supposed to have been over south central Oklahoma by now. The trough is strong enough to trigger showers and thunderstorms over southeast Texas but hasn't made it far enough east to trigger strong/tornadic storms over Louisiana or Mississippi.

I believe storms will redevelop in that area after about 2-3am.

However, it has been another long day, so this is my last post of the night. I still advice keeping up on the weather if you live in the tornado watch.