Sunday, June 17, 2018

If Dad Received A Nook or Kindle...

I'd like to modestly suggest my book about the Joplin Tornado.
What do four people who experienced the Joplin tornado have to say about 
When the Sirens Were Silent?

"Mr. Smith's timeline and reporting of the warnings received is spot-on. The book is a short read but it makes his points clearly understandable. My son and I are alive because of my own gut instinct that came from living in Joplin since I was nine. Neither the Joplin emergency management nor the NWS played any role.

"Whew, I just read it. Heart racing!!"

"Great work! Its informative and entertaining. I was anxious while reading it and I had to continue to remind myself that I already knew the outcome."

Being a storm spotter in SW Missouri, this book is incredible. 

If you want to see what it is like to be in a violent tornado, When the Sirens Were Silent is a great ebook for Nook, Kindle or the free Amazon online reader (you can read it on your computer without a separate device). Check it out.

Update on Heavy Rain Forecasts for Rockies and Great Plains States

Between now and next Sunday, heavy rains are forecast across the entire Great Plains and northern Rockies. In Arizona and most of New Mexico, the rains from Bud are about over.

Below are the amounts of rain that have fallen, directly or indirectly due to the remains of Bud, during the last three days.
The gray area means that no data is available.

Father's Day Sunday Fun: Tracking a Train and Storms on Radar

Happy Father's Day!!

Lots of Dads like trains and many meteorologists like trains. So, I have been saving this since June 6. While I have tracked trains on weather radars before, this is the first time I have seen a train on the same radar images as severe thunderstorms.

The Union Pacific train was traveling southeast across south central Nebraska. The train is highlighted at the bottom.

click to enlarge
In this case, I do not know what type of train it was but I suspect it was a double stack or autorack. 

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Dangerous New Disease Emerging in China

Whether it is this disease (full article here) or some other, it is highly likely there will be a global pandemic in the next few decades. There is good reason to believe the U.S. and other nations are not as well prepared as we should be. With election season coming up, this is probably a good question to ask your local politicians.

How The U.S. Grows More Food at Less Cost

We've discussed a number of times how the forecasts of doom (perpetual famines that would starve millions) made in the late 1960's and 1970's were completely wrong. What doomed the forecasts of doom were two things: warmer global temperatures and the Green Revolution. The latter was primarily due to the insights and research of the late Norman Borlaug.

Kansas State University Research and Extension
In the United States, many of us take our food for granted. It seems to magically appear at the grocery store. But, if we are to continue to provide nutritious food for ourselves and for a growing world, we must continue to research better ways of growing and producing crops. Most of this work is done by Kansas State University (KSU) and other land-grant colleges. 

Science360 has a brief article about some of that research being done at KSU. I cite this article because it centers around developing wheat that is more tolerant to higher nighttime temperatures. 

While the Al Gore hypothesis of accelerating and catastrophic global warming has been falsified, the climate has changed. The most important aspect of that change is warmer nighttime temperatures.  The warmer nighttime temperatures in spring mean longer growing seasons (good!). But, they can severely stress a crop during the heat of summer (bad!).

This research is hard work and, as the article indicates, most of the work is done at night. These unsung food research heroes are responsible for our food prosperity and deserve credit for the hard work they do. 

Friday, June 15, 2018

5pm CDT Friday - Updated Rainfall Forecast

Here is the updated rainfall forecast through
These are the forecast rainfall amounts through 5pm Thursday of next week. Keep in mind this is a smoothed product, there will be some locally higher amounts that may result in flash flooding in spots.

Also, note the heavy rains coming into the south Texas coast.

Colorado Radar at 3pm MDT

Here is radar as of 3pm MDT for part of Colorado. Things are just getting started.

The leading edge of the moisture from Bud is indicated by the arrows and it is that moisture causing the showers and thunderstorms in Colorado.

Octopi and Starfish Fall From the Sky

Photo of octopus attached to window of building
A waterspout (tornado over water) moved inland in China and dropped octopi, starfish and other sea creatures on land. The full story is here.

There have been reports of similar occurrences in the past.

Note: I have met a number of officials of the China Meteorological Agency and if they have confirmed this, then I believe it.

Remains of Tropical Storm Bud: Updated Rainfall Forecast

Over the next few days, it will cause significant to, in isolated areas, excessive rainfalls.

The map below is the 7-day rainfall forecast. Note the four inch forecast on the Colorado-Nebraska Panhandle border. Some small spots, smaller than the resolution of this forecast will receive more than five inches. Localized flash flooding is a possibility.
There is also a tropical system that will come off the Gulf of Mexico. It will cause heavy rains along the Texas coast. It, too, will then move inland to cause generous rains.

Finally, these two systems will put a significant dent in the drought. 

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Colorado: This Bud's For You, Part II

Here is an updated forecast of rainfall amounts from the NWS.
There will be several spots in Colorado that will receive more than three inches of rain from the remains of Bud, which will help greatly with the wildfires now burning.

More than five inches of rain are likely over the western edge of the Great Lakes region.

Drought persists over much of the area depicted -- so this rain will be extremely welcome (scroll down for more on the drought).

Only One Copy of "Warnings" Left

UPDATE: 6:30pm. I heard from my publisher and Amazon actually has more copies. However, one of their other sells got hold of the "buy." Greenleaf Book Group, my publisher, is working on the problem. 
There are more books available than one copy. 

Warnings has sold briskly for Father's Day. It appears there is only one copy left via Amazon.
If you have been stumped for a Father's Day gift, you might want to order now. After all, a book is treasured forever.
on June 9, 2018
A splendid book!  [entirety of review is at Amazon]

We are working to get more copies to Amazon as quickly as possible. 
Warnings is in stock at Barnes & Noble
The Kindle version is, of course, available. 

Updated Severe Weather Risk: Northern Great Plains

click to enlarge

North Dakota and Canadian Prairies: Serious Tornado Risk


Not only have the probabilities been raised, the hatching is where violent tornadoes are forecast to occur.


There is a serious tornado risk in North Dakota and in the adjacent Prairies.

On the U.S. side of the border, this 5% may be just a bit on the low side and the tornado risk may extend a touch farther to the south.

North of the border, in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, there is also a serious risk of tornadoes.
So, I urge people in these areas to monitor the weather and have a reliable source of storm warnings for your locality.

This Bud's For You, Colorado!

The remains of Tropical Storm Bud will produce widespread soaking rains across Colorado with more than three inches in spots. The remains will continue to move north and will combine with a cold front to bring more than five inches to the western Great Lakes region.
Given the widespread drought across much of this region, the tropical moisture is most welcome!

Climate 'Science' Veers Into Utter Silliness Again

As the horror stories of sudden, accelerated global warming have convincingly been proven to be false, Big Climate ($35,000,000,000 per year spent by the U.S. alone) must be getting nervous. Otherwise, I can't think of a good reason for a paper to be published that claims that even if temperatures do not go up as much as they were forecast to rise,

This means that even if a low temperature response [to CO2] helps us to meet the temperature target, there may still be ‘dangerous’ changes in [temperature and weather] extremes

(hat tip, Anthony Watts). "Low temperature response" means what people like me have been saying: the atmosphere does not warm as fast as the alarmists say.

Apparently, CO2 (the fizz in your pop) is some sort of magic gas that can create tropical storms and extreme summer temperatures out of nothing. Of course, this rather remarkable contention comes to us courtesy of

Researchers from Oxford and other institutions participating in the HAPPI-MIP project (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts Model Intercomparison Project) ... 

Sigh, yet another computer model simulation. You know the same ones that completely missed the 15-year "pause" in global warming and have missed the current cooling in global temperatures? But, at least this model is HAPPI (good grief!).

This paper smacks of desperation by Big Climate. Now that their 30-years (as of next month) of contentions and "tipping points" that disastrous weather/climate is always just over the horizon, they are trying to find something else to keep the gravy train rolling down the track. It is past time to cut U.S. climate research back to a more reasonable level.

For those of you who want a scientific discussion of this subject:

Carbon dioxide concentrations have risen considerably since the 1950's (when they were first systematically measured worldwide).
NOAA Mauna Loa Laboratory CO2 Measurement
However, there is no trend whatsoever that people are dying in greater numbers as result.

#1. The medical evidence shows more than twelve times as many people die from cold as from heat. Warmer temperatures = fewer total deaths. 

#2. According to the paper in question, more CO2 means more tropical storms. You can see the increase in CO2 (red curve above) has increased since 1970 but there is no increase in tropical storms or hurricanes.
Dr. Ryan Maue
#3. Five years ago, we had these types of stories about global warming causing worsening storms routinely. The stories pertained to both tornadoes and hurricanes. We have had record or near record low numbers of tornadoes the last few years, counter to what was predicted in 2013. When you go to the NOAA page pertaining to yearly numbers of tornadoes (which would verify that contention), this is what you get...

Oxford and the others could have figured all of this out by looking at genuine data (as I have here) instead of a "simulation" of the future. Of course, that would have falsified their research and would have further jeopardized the gravy train.

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Want an Easy-to-Read Primer on Global Warming?

I highly recommend Dr. Judy Curry's slides here.

Colorado National Forecast Closed Due to Drought

But, Relief is on The Way

San Juan National Forest in Colorado was closed yesterday due to the extreme drought. However, at least some relief is on the way in in the form of the remains of Tropical Storm Bud.

Here is a rough idea of where the rains from Bud will fall (between the arrows).
ECMWF Ten-Day Rainfall Forecast
Of course, this track may vary a bit to the east or west, but moderate to heavy rains should fall over Colorado regardless. In addition, there is a low pressure system that should be over California behind Bud that will cause widespread afternoon showers and thundershowers behind Bud. So, total rainfalls should be ample to improve fire and drought conditions.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

I Really Like This Cartoon..., I am sharing it with you.
I prefer say "free enterprise" than "capitalism" which is what it actually is. If people are passionate about creating and running a business (restaurant, copper mine, airline, it doesn't matter) they will manage it better than "experts" appointed by the government. That passion and expertise makes for an entrepreneurial class that will make people and a nation grow and prosper.

Drought Update

Here is the rainfall that has fallen the last two weeks as of 7am this morning.

And, here is the amount of rain, above the average amounts, needed to break the drought.

Monday, June 11, 2018

Tornado and Hail Risk Later Today

The tornado risk (5%, brown is the significant threshold) includes Omaha, Sioux Falls, Lincoln and Manhattan.

There is a risk of giant hail in the hatched area. The significant threshold is yellow (15%) with the
red an enhanced risk. Put the car in the garage!

There is also a risk of a few thunderstorm-driven wind gusts of 60 mph or higher throughout this area.

This is a pretty good map for the timing of the storms.