Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Tornado Watch + Two Areas With Flash Flood Threats

One in Texas, one in Kansas, from now until 7am Wednesday.

There is also a tornado watch for the eastern half of Colorado
which includes Metro Denver, Colorado Springs, Ft. Collins and Pueblo. Giant hail has already been reported,

For additional severe weather coverage, please follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert

Another Data-Free Global Warming Study

I am sorry to see the Wall Street Journal fall for this. The study in question did not look at actual precipitation amounts to verify what the computer simulation said. From the actual data I am able to gather, the computer study is incorrect. The Great Plains climate is not shifting to drier conditions.

Monday, June 18, 2018

Thought Of The Day

Forecast Rainfall: Now Until 7pm Wednesday

Because of the extreme drought conditions, here is a zoom-in of where heavy rains are forecast in the Great Plains between now and 7pm Wednesday.

Father south, heavy rains are likely in south central and southeast Texas.
In the Houston area (starred), rainfalls of around 5 inches are likely. However, if the system scoots just a little farther to the east, much heavier rains may fall.

Finally, below is the forecast rainfall from now through 7pm next Monday evening.

The Practical Use of Aviation Research

Saturday, I discussed the critical research being done by Kansas State University to develop wheat that is more tolerant of warmer nighttime temperatures (please scroll down). Today, I would like to point you to important work being done by Wichita State University.
Yes, there are serious problems with the F-35B aircraft. And, the solutions may be found a few miles from my home at the National Institute for Aviation Research which is run by Wichita Sate University (WSU) The article is fascinating and you will find it here.

Many who are not familiar with Wichita are surprised to learn it is the aviation capital of the world -- more planes are made here than in any other. And, in order for those planes to be state-of-the-art, WSU is one of the leading universities in the world in the field of aviation research.

Rainfall in the Southwest From Bud; Forecast For More

Generous rains (especially for June) have fallen in the Southwest. In
the southern High Plains, the rains were even more than were forecast and were much-needed.

The second phase of the forecast rains should begin this afternoon and continue intermittently into the weekend.
There will be localities that get too much rain but, overall, the rains are desperately needed in many areas.

Please note the forecast 7" amounts in eastern Nebraska and the 7+" amounts over the metropolitan Houston area. Again, there will be spots that get too much rain even with the drought. 

Sunday, June 17, 2018

If Dad Received A Nook or Kindle...

I'd like to modestly suggest my book about the Joplin Tornado.
What do four people who experienced the Joplin tornado have to say about 
When the Sirens Were Silent?

"Mr. Smith's timeline and reporting of the warnings received is spot-on. The book is a short read but it makes his points clearly understandable. My son and I are alive because of my own gut instinct that came from living in Joplin since I was nine. Neither the Joplin emergency management nor the NWS played any role.

"Whew, I just read it. Heart racing!!"

"Great work! Its informative and entertaining. I was anxious while reading it and I had to continue to remind myself that I already knew the outcome."

Being a storm spotter in SW Missouri, this book is incredible. 

If you want to see what it is like to be in a violent tornado, When the Sirens Were Silent is a great ebook for Nook, Kindle or the free Amazon online reader (you can read it on your computer without a separate device). Check it out.

Update on Heavy Rain Forecasts for Rockies and Great Plains States

Between now and next Sunday, heavy rains are forecast across the entire Great Plains and northern Rockies. In Arizona and most of New Mexico, the rains from Bud are about over.

Below are the amounts of rain that have fallen, directly or indirectly due to the remains of Bud, during the last three days.
The gray area means that no data is available.

Father's Day Sunday Fun: Tracking a Train and Storms on Radar

Happy Father's Day!!

Lots of Dads like trains and many meteorologists like trains. So, I have been saving this since June 6. While I have tracked trains on weather radars before, this is the first time I have seen a train on the same radar images as severe thunderstorms.

The Union Pacific train was traveling southeast across south central Nebraska. The train is highlighted at the bottom.

click to enlarge
In this case, I do not know what type of train it was but I suspect it was a double stack or autorack. 

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Dangerous New Disease Emerging in China

Whether it is this disease (full article here) or some other, it is highly likely there will be a global pandemic in the next few decades. There is good reason to believe the U.S. and other nations are not as well prepared as we should be. With election season coming up, this is probably a good question to ask your local politicians.

How The U.S. Grows More Food at Less Cost

We've discussed a number of times how the forecasts of doom (perpetual famines that would starve millions) made in the late 1960's and 1970's were completely wrong. What doomed the forecasts of doom were two things: warmer global temperatures and the Green Revolution. The latter was primarily due to the insights and research of the late Norman Borlaug.

Kansas State University Research and Extension
In the United States, many of us take our food for granted. It seems to magically appear at the grocery store. But, if we are to continue to provide nutritious food for ourselves and for a growing world, we must continue to research better ways of growing and producing crops. Most of this work is done by Kansas State University (KSU) and other land-grant colleges. 

Science360 has a brief article about some of that research being done at KSU. I cite this article because it centers around developing wheat that is more tolerant to higher nighttime temperatures. 

While the Al Gore hypothesis of accelerating and catastrophic global warming has been falsified, the climate has changed. The most important aspect of that change is warmer nighttime temperatures.  The warmer nighttime temperatures in spring mean longer growing seasons (good!). But, they can severely stress a crop during the heat of summer (bad!).

This research is hard work and, as the article indicates, most of the work is done at night. These unsung food research heroes are responsible for our food prosperity and deserve credit for the hard work they do. 

Friday, June 15, 2018

5pm CDT Friday - Updated Rainfall Forecast

Here is the updated rainfall forecast through
These are the forecast rainfall amounts through 5pm Thursday of next week. Keep in mind this is a smoothed product, there will be some locally higher amounts that may result in flash flooding in spots.

Also, note the heavy rains coming into the south Texas coast.

Colorado Radar at 3pm MDT

Here is radar as of 3pm MDT for part of Colorado. Things are just getting started.

The leading edge of the moisture from Bud is indicated by the arrows and it is that moisture causing the showers and thunderstorms in Colorado.

Octopi and Starfish Fall From the Sky

Photo of octopus attached to window of building
A waterspout (tornado over water) moved inland in China and dropped octopi, starfish and other sea creatures on land. The full story is here.

There have been reports of similar occurrences in the past.

Note: I have met a number of officials of the China Meteorological Agency and if they have confirmed this, then I believe it.

Remains of Tropical Storm Bud: Updated Rainfall Forecast

Over the next few days, it will cause significant to, in isolated areas, excessive rainfalls.

The map below is the 7-day rainfall forecast. Note the four inch forecast on the Colorado-Nebraska Panhandle border. Some small spots, smaller than the resolution of this forecast will receive more than five inches. Localized flash flooding is a possibility.
There is also a tropical system that will come off the Gulf of Mexico. It will cause heavy rains along the Texas coast. It, too, will then move inland to cause generous rains.

Finally, these two systems will put a significant dent in the drought. 

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Colorado: This Bud's For You, Part II

Here is an updated forecast of rainfall amounts from the NWS.
There will be several spots in Colorado that will receive more than three inches of rain from the remains of Bud, which will help greatly with the wildfires now burning.

More than five inches of rain are likely over the western edge of the Great Lakes region.

Drought persists over much of the area depicted -- so this rain will be extremely welcome (scroll down for more on the drought).

Only One Copy of "Warnings" Left

UPDATE: 6:30pm. I heard from my publisher and Amazon actually has more copies. However, one of their other sells got hold of the "buy." Greenleaf Book Group, my publisher, is working on the problem. 
There are more books available than one copy. 

Warnings has sold briskly for Father's Day. It appears there is only one copy left via Amazon.
If you have been stumped for a Father's Day gift, you might want to order now. After all, a book is treasured forever.
on June 9, 2018
A splendid book!  [entirety of review is at Amazon]

We are working to get more copies to Amazon as quickly as possible. 
Warnings is in stock at Barnes & Noble
The Kindle version is, of course, available. 

Updated Severe Weather Risk: Northern Great Plains

click to enlarge

North Dakota and Canadian Prairies: Serious Tornado Risk


Not only have the probabilities been raised, the hatching is where violent tornadoes are forecast to occur.


There is a serious tornado risk in North Dakota and in the adjacent Prairies.

On the U.S. side of the border, this 5% may be just a bit on the low side and the tornado risk may extend a touch farther to the south.

North of the border, in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, there is also a serious risk of tornadoes.
So, I urge people in these areas to monitor the weather and have a reliable source of storm warnings for your locality.

This Bud's For You, Colorado!

The remains of Tropical Storm Bud will produce widespread soaking rains across Colorado with more than three inches in spots. The remains will continue to move north and will combine with a cold front to bring more than five inches to the western Great Lakes region.
Given the widespread drought across much of this region, the tropical moisture is most welcome!