Friday, March 24, 2017

Amazon Running Low


It has been a very good week for sales of Warnings. Amazon is running low.

It is now up to 60 reviews and they continue to be stellar.
All six reviews at Barnes & Noble are five-star.
If you combine the ratings, it means that 89% of the reviews are 5-Star and 9% are 4-Star. Not bad!

The bad/mediocre reviews come from meteorologists and meteorology students who, unfortunately, expect a textbook-type experience rather than a great story about how the (still, unfortunately) under appreciated storm warning system came to be and how lives get saved every month by this amazing system.

So, if you are looking for a great book. Click on the green link above. You'll really enjoy it!

Attention Gardeners, Farmers and Ranchers

Here is the regional actual precipitation from the time it began in Colorado about 30 hours ago.


Forecasts
Okay, because we are now in planting season (soil temperatures rising) and I personally know people who are planning to garden this weekend, here is another update on rainfall prospects for the next ten days.

GFS Model Forecast for Ten Days
For reasons not well understood, the GFS typically is drier in its Great Plains forecasts produced from the morning data which again seems to be the case here. The other two models have turned wetter compared to last night's and yesterday's forecasts.

CFC Forecast
Yes, that is an 8+" area in northwest Kansas. Do not take any of the specific details of these forecasts too literally as illustrated below.

ECMWF Forecast
The ECMWF has forecast, like the CFC, some excessive rainfall in Kansas. But, this time, their forecast is for it to occur in the southern Flint Hills rather than northwest Kansas.

Again, do not take the details literally. The takeaway from these forecasts is that moderate to heavy rains will fall over most of this area the next ten days.


ECMWF Regional
Because the ECMWF is the usually the best of the three, here is the latest rainfall forecast for the entire region for the next ten days.

So, gardeners, farmers and ranchers -- use this information in a way that is most useful to you. The great news is that the long-forecasted rains have arrived and will continue for a while!

The Tornado Risk Has Increased a Bit

Five percent is the significant threshold. Ten percent, which includes Shreveport and Lufkin, means to really keep an eye out.

Thunderstorms are also forming (right now along the KS-OK border). There is a slight chance of a weak tornado or two (a/k/a, "landspouts") if the storms can interact with the upper atmospheric low pressure system.
12:25pm CDT Radar
These storms are moving almost straight north.

If All You Have Is a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail

Al Gore's latest attempt to stay in the news.
If you want to kill brain cells by reading the article, it is here.

Some Superb Advice

Late Season Snow

Snow likely through parts of the West.

Rain Amounts on Day One

Here are the rainfall amounts from yesterday afternoon and evening's showers and thunderstorms.

ADDITION: Close-up of amounts.

Tornado Risk Today in the South

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes later today and tonight.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

The Multi-Day Rainy Period Begins

Finally: Rains begin in the Great Plains. 

Latest Ten Day Rainfall Update for the Great Plains

I'm going to arrange this the same way I did the last time so you can compare the forecasts directly, if you should choose to do so.

GFS Forecast

CMC Forecast

ECMWF Forecast
So, the prospects for rain continue to look good!!

How Do You Estimate Wind Speeds?


Plus, I'll have an update this afternoon on rainfall prospects for the winter wheat belt.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

March Rainfall To-Date

You can see that parts of the Great Plains (not to mention the Southwest) have had zero rain so far this month. That is all going to change starting tomorrow.

"Struggled to Put it Down"

A couple of posts on Twitter.
When I asked for permission to put her comments on my blog, Lynette wrote:
Thank you, Lynnette. Here is a link to the book at Amazon.

U.S. Greenhouse Emissions Continuing to Decline

We don't need no Paris agreements; thanks to fracking our emissions are actually going down.