Friday, March 22, 2019

Water Forecasting

Today is World Water Day. In order for water resources, which are often scarce in parts of the world, to be properly managed, weather forecasting is critical.

Given the record flooding in the Midwest, I thought our readers might find interesting a comparison of a recent water forecast versus reality.

The forecast below was posted on this blog on March 12th. It was comprised of the graphic from the National Weather Service and commentary from yours truly.
Below is a geographic plot of all National Weather Service flood warnings plotted since the major flooding began March 14, two days after the above forecast.
Even more important, the March 12 posting included the following advice:
Whether is was the forecast for the High Plains Megastorm (or "bomb cyclone" if you prefer) or the above forecast of the subsequent flooding, weather science continues to provide vital information to save lives and improve society.

The Insulin Issue

The best single explanation I have seen for the issues with insulin pricing is here. I learned from reading it.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

NOAA's Spring Flood Outlook

This is NOAA's outlook for widespread flooding from now through the end of May. It does not include thunderstorm-related flooding due to heavy rain. They are calling the flood potential for this spring, "unprecedented." Below is an explanation of the descriptive words.
click to enlarge
As I mentioned when I first posted about this threat, this information does not do anyone any good if it is viewed as merely interesting. Especially if you are in a "major" risk risk area, begin making preliminary precautions now: 

  • How would you contact family and friends?
  • How would you and they evacuate?
  • Do you have a list of what you would take with you if you need to evacuate quickly? Things like financial records and precious family albums and records?
  • Do you have a way of receiving flash flood and flood warnings quickly?
  • Does your business have an alternative location or does it have a way of getting vital records and equipment out of danger?
  • Keep your car full of fuel. Keep your computers and phones fully charged. 
I'll update on this threat from time to time. 

Essential Clean Water

This is a more urgent -- and, far more solvable -- problem than global warming. Recent developments in water purification make it affordable to bring clean water to many. Rotary International's clean water efforts are an excellent place to donate if you want to help make clean water available to all.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

"Technoskeptic" on the Joplin Tornado

Joplin's St. John's Hospital after the tornado.
Fifteen died there. They didn't know it was coming
until six minutes before the tornado arrived.
The new edition of Technoskeptic magazine (print) has an article about the 2011 Joplin Tornado. Author Eric Brende discusses the role of technology that terrible day.

Eric interviewed me several times and refers to my book, When the Sirens Were Silent. The book is a cautionary tale about how the warning system failed to work as it should have that day -- with the result being the loss of 161 precious lives.

Given we are on the threshold of what will likely be an active 2019 tornado season, the book -- with its detailed safety suggestions for home, schools and offices -- is as timely today as the day the book was published.

It is just $2.99 (ebook). We priced it so a maximum number of people could benefit. It is a fast read and I urge you to grab a copy before the next tornado watch is issued for your area.

Another Climate Practitioner Passes On Answering the Big Questions

For background, please see the posting below. In it, I contended that climate science is not a science because it lacks the absolutely essential element of any science which is a falsifiable hypothesis.

A climate scientist from MIT immediately Tweeted and rejected my comment. I have obscured his name because I do not desire to put him in an uncomfortable position.

Here is the exchange on Twitter:
The climate scientist said I was wrong and that it is a genuine science.

So, as I have with so many others, I asked him the two critical questions:
And, his response? Nothing (blank yellow page for illustration).

Over and over and over, I have asked climate 'scientists' these questions and I never get a satisfactory answer and, most of the time -- as in this case -- I get no answer at all. I have even offered to several the opportunity to post a guest column on my blog answering these questions.

Global warming made it onto the front pages of America's newspapers in summer, 1988. They've had three decades to come up with the answers and have not. So, from this point on, this blog will refer to climate studies instead of climate science. If these terribly basic questions cannot be answered after 30+ years, then the study of future climate is interesting and important speculation but it is clearly not science.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The New York Times: Two Papers in One!!

Landsat image of Nebraska flooding
Today, March 19, 2019, the New York Times publishes:
"This is science after all, and science is constantly evolving."

New York Times, December 31, 2018, published:
"The science is settled."

Evidently, every science evolves except global warming.

In some ways, this may not be the contradiction it seems to be. Increasingly, climate studies are not "science." By definition, science must have a falsifiable hypothesis. If global warming is responsible for:
  • Flooding
  • More polar ice
  • Less polar ice
  • Drought
  • Warmer weather
  • Colder weather
  • High winds
  • Calmer winds
  • Changes in hurricanes (not just worsening hurricanes)...
it cannot possibly be falsified. If every change in the weather is due to global warming then climate study is not science because it is not falsifiable. Why?
  • The weather constantly changes and always has.
  • Climate constantly changes and always has. 
In fact, those who study climate cannot tell us (based on their chosen metric of surface temperatures) the ideal temperature for earth and its human residents. 
Volcanic eruption currently in progress; via Twitter
Do human beings affect the weather? Of course! But, it isn't nearly as simple as changes in CO2. Humans affect the climates through greenhouse gases, land use changes, particulates, aerosols and in other ways. Climate also changes through volcanic and solar influences. The bottom line:

Even if we took atmospheric concentrations of CO2 back to 350ppm, it is highly unlikely the climate would be the same as the last time it was 350ppm. 

It is a shame that global warming has corrupted atmospheric science. I doubt that issue will resolve itself in my lifetime. 

Attention: Washington and Oregon

This deserves your full attention.

Tragically, our nation doesn't tackle the deficit, EMP's, solar storms, or giant earthquakes. Just wait until the eventual hurricane hits Southern California.

That is what we should be focused on, not political correctness. We should be ignoring the SJW's and focusing on the real issues.