Saturday, January 18, 2020

Sunday Feature: The Science of God

A very well done video at how science, more and more, points to God as the Creator of the universe.

Note: This was posted a day early due to the AFC Championship game Sunday afternoon featuring the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Tennessee Titans. Go Chiefs!!

There will be no blogging Sunday. 

Congratulations Wichita State University Students

A group of students of Wichita State University has won one of the major innovation awards at the just-ended Consumer Electronics Show. Their company, Viv02, has created a non-invasive fetal oxygen monitoring device. This new device has the potential to save the lives of babies at risk of oxygen loss during labor while also minimizing the need for C-sections. The full details are here.

Wichita State is an up-and-coming university that does amazing, innovative work. Congratulations on this life-saving innovation!!

Friday, January 17, 2020

How Did That Tornado Outbreak Forecast Work Out?

One week ago today, we were warning that an unseasonable tornado outbreak was likely in the south central United States. The graphic below was included. It was the NWS SPC's forecast of tornadoes on the 10h (Friday) though 6am on the 11th.
Now that the NWS has had time to gather all of the tornado reports (red dots), we can see the forecast was outstanding. Perhaps the brown (5%) tornado area should have been a little farther northeast but it was otherwise about perfect.

Below is a detailed map of the storms.

Forecasting out-of-season tornado outbreaks is difficult. SPC meteorologists and meteorologists throughout the weather enterprise deserve our thanks.

United Airlines Says Its Rotten Customer Service is Due to Global Warming

From the: Global warming, is there anything it can't do? category.
Wall Street Journal, 1/15/20
Bjorn Lomborg -- hilariously -- brings up this Dilbert comic as a response.

The gold standard climate temperature data reveals that temperatures are not rising in the United States since the network was installed in 2005.
United evidently believes its customers are gullible and will believe this nonsense. Their global warming statement is a continuation of its long-time policy of blaming the weather for its operational incompetence.

And, while we are on the subject of global warming and travel:
In 1999, London's rather liberal The Guardian told us that by 2020,
"Spain will be ridden with malaria, the eastern Mediterranean will be as hot as the Sahara desert...and there will be almost no snow in the Alps."

I just checked the Alps snow report and learned 435 resorts are currently open for skiing.

None of these gloom and doom global forecasts has turned out to be correct.

And, finally, in the Maldives where global warming's sea level rise has
been forecast to "swallow" the islands, a brand-new resort opened Tuesday. Pictured below, the resort
is another built in the (what I call) "up close and personal with the ocean" style. Considering the islands were supposed to be 70% underwater by this time, the investors don't seem too terribly worried about global warming.

Thursday, January 16, 2020

10:30p Thursday Winter Storm Update

Here are the latest hazardous condition headlines:
Pinks are winter storm warnings. 

The red line from the Lake of the Ozarks region to the far northeast Texas Panhandle is where there will be 1/4" ice accumulation with isolated 1/3" values. There have been a few power failures and others will occur during the night. 

Special Freezing Rain Update for Kansas

The National Weather Service has increased the amount of ice accumulation they are forecasting for south central Kansas.
On the map at right, the yellow area is where .2 to .4 inches of ice accumulation is predicted.

The map on the left is a forecast of the effects of the freezing rain. They are:
  • Extremely hazardous highway conditions. 
  • Perhaps some very isolated power outages.
I'm not sure why, since they increased the amount of freezing rain they are forecasting, they have not issued a winter storm warning. Regardless, I would have any errands or travel completed by a time the freezing rain begins in your location. 

For reference, here is the regional radar as of 2:30pm. 
While light snow is falling in Liberal, most of the freezing rain shown (red-salmon color) is still aloft due to the dry air near the ground. That is going to change this evening and with a current temperature of 27° at Wichita's Jabara Airport, there could be considerable ice accumulation during the night. 

Allow plenty of extra time to go to work in the morning.

Temperatures will rise above freezing mid- to late morning tomorrow allowing the ice to melt. 

New Winter Storm Forecast in the Central U.S.

Here are the current advisories:
  • Colbat blue = winter storm watch. 
  • Purple = winter weather advisory
  • Pink = winter storm warning
  • Brown = high wind
  • Green = various flood warnings/advisories 
I'm concerned the freezing rain forecast in the Great Plains is not getting enough attention. 
No significant freezing rain is forecast to occur before 6pm CST.

The above map is the most likely scenario. In the areas of middle and darker green shading, roads will become extremely hazardous and there could be a power failure or two. I would urge you not to travel once the freezing rain begins.

Farther north, the precipitation type will be snow. Pinks are areas where more than six inches is forecast to fall.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Another Verified 5-Star Review of "Warnings"

The review is here.

Plus, there two new ratings at Goodreads.
If you have a post-holiday gift card or are wanting a book for a warm winter vacation (and you'll need it later this month and February), Warnings would be an ideal choice.

Monday, January 13, 2020

Book Recommendation: "Weathering Life"

It is always a pleasure to recommend a book on the topic of weather, especially when a friend is the author. James Spann is the chief meteorologist for ABC 33/40 in Birmingham and is known for the hundreds of lives saved from his "long form" tornado coverage.

Weathering Life is an autobiography with many interesting stories and vignettes pertaining to his life and career. If you would like to learn what it is like to be a meteorologist specializing in television or are just interested in a good book, I certainly recommend Weathering Life.

Saturday, January 11, 2020

More Global Warming Propaganda From NOAA

In case you missed this posting on account of the storm coverage. 
Licensed From Rawpixel 
While from time-to-time I would differ with them on some policy issue, I used to have tremendous respect for the U.S. government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From its inception in 1970, great scientists did outstanding, important work for the nation. While NOAA still does a great deal of important work, it has gotten into the global warming propaganda business. And, that is a shame.

Yesterday, it issued the 2019 version of a map that is pure propaganda, designed to feed the narrative of worsening disasters. That is just not true.
click to enlarge
In order to create a billion dollar "disaster," NOAA aggregates events from different regions and/or different days, sometimes even from different weather systems to they reach the billion dollar threshold. Let's take some examples from this year's map.
The West
The California + Alaska wildfires -- summer and fall -- is a real laugher. Combining two states (San Francisco to Fairbanks is 2,139 miles) plus fires over two seasons supposedly = a single event.

The Colorado thunderstorms that brought the hail on July 4 dissipated. New thunderstorms formed on the 5th. They were two separate events as shown by the radar on the NWS Boulder's Facebook page.
Again, they had to combine two separate events to create a billion-dollar disaster 

Tornadoes and Thunderstorms
These are utter jokes. Aggregating "Rockies, Central, and Northeast Tornadoes" over three days is not "a" disaster. They are separate events from different storms. Same is true of "Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Northeast" over three days as well as "Central Severe Weather," again over three days. 

A hurricane plowing through several states over several days is a single disaster because the damage is caused by a single, unique storm. In the case immediately above, aggregating "severe weather" in a wide geographic region over seven days is not even close to being a single event. 

The 2011 catastrophic Joplin Tornado produced $2.8 billion in damage; that is a "billion-dollar tornado event." These are not "billion dollar disasters" -- they are manufactured for propaganda purposes and, also, to tell Congress that NOAA (like every federal agency) needs more tax $$$ because of global warming and worsening weather. 

In the United States, as far as I know, there is no type of disaster which is worsening. Here are Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr's United States disaster trend data.

Since we are talking about global warming, here are the world-wide figures. Whether measured by deaths or dollars, there is no increase in either due to global warming or any other reason. 

NOAA: You used to be much better than this. Please go back to being an "honest broker" and provide high quality meteorological and climate data that does not tilt toward one side or another. 

Addition: 11:30pm Thursday, similar commentary on this same topic from Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr

Addition II, Saturday: And, yet another problem with NOAA data -- one that makes the rate of sea level rise look worse than it is. As a commenter at WattsUpWithThat puts it:

A New 5-Star Review at Amazon

"Warnings tells a well-written and exciting story about natural disasters [and] the progress of science.... It is a story about the advances in meteorology (one of the many technologies which makes our world run) and a government service (the National Weather Service).

So, take that gift card and use it to get a great, uplifting story!

Today's Tornado Risk

We still haven an enhanced risk of tornadoes today...this time in the Southeast.
Brown is the significant tornado threat. Yellow is the enhance threat area and, where the yellow is hatched, violent tornadoes may occur. Please keep up on the weather in this region.

Friday, January 10, 2020

Meteorologists - Essential To Our Nation

This says it all...

8:10pm Friday - Last Update of the Evening

The purple polygons (on this display system) are tornado warnings in western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. The threat of tornadoes continues during the night for the areas below in yellow and brown but the likelihood of overnight violent tornadoes seems less than it did even a few hours ago.

The ice storm (salmon color on upper map) continues and power failures are reported in northeast Kansas. They may spread into northern Missouri and southeast Iowa during the night.

There are many areas of flash flooding from Missouri to Texas. I would discourage overnight travel with this intense storm.

4pm Winter Storm Update

Snow Forecast

Freezing Rain Amount Forecast 

Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index
Below is the chart to estimate the ice storm's effects in your area. Please prepare for power failures if they are forecasted for your area.
Note: this will be the last of the ice storm forecasts unless a major change in this weather system occurs.

3:30pm Storm Update

Purple polygons on this display = tornado warnings. The pink (salmon) colors are freezing rain. Blue is snow. For the next few hours the tornado risk is really going to ratchet up over southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas, including parts of the DFW Metroplex.

Additional Freezing Rain Forecast From Now Until 10am Saturday

Major Ice Storm In Progress
The above map is the forecast additional freezing rain from now until 4am Saturday.

And, here is the freezing rain forecast from now through 10am Saturday. By this time, the ice is forecast to be spreading into northern Illinois.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible in Kansas late this afternoon and this evening. That could cause issues with power lines and power failures. 

Ice Storm Update

As of 11:30am,
The pinkish colors = freezing rain. Just got a report from Lindsborg, Kansas, of 26°, thunder and freezing rain that was sticking. NWS in Topeka has upped the forecast ice accumulations to 1/4 to 1/2" from near Lindsborg through Manhattan and into the northeast part of the state. Numerals on the map = current temperatures.

This will be a major ice storm with power failures likely.