Thursday, February 23, 2017

Update on Blizzard and Wildfire Risk

Here is AccuWeather's latest forecast of snowfall amounts.


Update on watch and warnings:
Orange is a blizzard warning. Pink is a winter storm warning (a slightly lesser condition). Blue is a winter weather advisory (a much lesser condition than a blizzard warning). Hunter green is a winter storm watch (Wisconsin area).

Gray is a dense fog advisory.

Magenta is a wildfire danger warning. Brown is a high wind warning. Below is the NWS's assessment of wildfire danger later today.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Lots of Watches and Warnings

Lots going on with this NWS map.

  • Orange is a blizzard warning (the most serious condition)
  • Pink is a winter storm warning.
  • Magenta in the southern Plains is a high fire risk. 
  • Lime green is a blizzard watch.
  • The hunter green in the Upper Midwest is a winter storm watch.
  • Green (Idaho) is a flood warning.
  • The purple in the intermountain region is a winter weather advisory. 

Here is a computer model forecast for noon Friday.
The low pressure system is on the Missouri-Iowa border. The solid lines are "isobars" = lines of equal barometric pressure. Where they are close together, the winds are high. Green is rain with darker colors corresponding to heavier rains. The orange and magenta are sleet and brief freezing rain. The purples are heavier snow (darker purples are heavier snow).

Lots of Severe Weather to Talk About

Florida

The meteorological situation has not developed in the way I originally forecast. There could still be an isolated tornado or a thunderstorm could cause a damaging wind gust today but the threat is not particularly high.


Blizzard

The forecast has not changed much. The blizzard begins later today with high winds and low visibilities throughout the region where heavy snow is forecast to fall. This is forecast to be the worst storm in six years in the Twin Cities. More details from AccuWeather.


Friday Severe Thunderstorm Situation

Damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible. Details from AccuWeather.

"A Drought Forever"

As you watch the images of California flooding, keep in mind the global warming crowd told us,

“We are in a drought forever,” Patzert said. “I can’t think of any scenario where we would have six wet El NiƱo years in a row, which would top out all the reservoirs and the ground water supply.”

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Update on Blizzard Forecast

Here is the forecast accumulation:
High winds and low visibilities will accompany the snow. Full details from AccuWeather.

Florida Tomorrow

Attention Florida readers. There is a chance of tornadoes in the Sunshine State tomorrow and tomorrow evening as a low pressure system in the upper atmosphere moves across the Peninsula.

I'll have an update tomorrow morning.

Essential Reading

I try not to label articles "essential" very often but this article from The Spectator certainly is. While it makes a number of valuable points about global warming, I would like to focus on this statement:

Two decades ago, air bags were made mandatory for all autos sold in the U.S. Over the years, the National Highway Safety Administration began to recognize research that found that air-bags could either deploy when inappropriate — even taking lives, especially of children — or not deploy in accident situations. But it refuses to reconsider its mandate or even to allow the removal of faulty airbags firing at 200 miles per hour when a scientific Journal of Trauma study reported by NIH found that airbags provided little protection beyond ordinary seatbelts.

Independent research of mine, while I was working on Warnings, revealed exactly the same thing. Please consider:
  • Airbags add about $1,000 to the cost of a new car. 
  • While driver's side airbags have some value, there is little or no value to passenger-side airbags, especially when the passenger is wearing a seatbelt. 
  • Yes, airbags are well-known to kill children on the passenger side.
  • Some of the best conversations I had with my children (before passenger-side airbags were mandatory) were when they were buckled into their car seats on the passenger side. Current and future generations should give this up because a federal bureaucracy cannot admit their (huge) mistake?
Putting aside global warming, there is a lot federal rule making that is based on bad science. 

Monday, February 20, 2017

Yes, A Blizzard


Weather Science Does It Again

According to preliminary reports, the tornado in San Antonio last night was preceded by a tornado warning. From the San Antonio Express News

Griffin said soon after she got the notification for a tornado warning last night she heard strong winds that sounded "just like a train" coming down her street.

and, later in the same article:

According to San Antonio Fire Department spokesman Woody Woodward, only five San Antonio residents had minor injuries in the storms, even though more than 100 homes were damaged. "Which is amazing," Woodward said.
Again, while preliminary, it is not so much amazing as it is the warning system. Congratulations to the NWS and everyone involved!

Sunday Fun: Chemistry as Practiced in D.C.

Yes, she really said that (in 2008).

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Slight Tornado Risk Today

The area in brown has a significant risk of a tornado or two later today. This includes Wichita Falls, Lawton and far west part of DFW Metroplex. Stay tuned to the weather in your area if thunderstorms approach.

Sunday Fun: Wichita is One of America's Most Artistic Cities

While this doesn't surprise residents, it may surprise those living in the rest of the nation. As Expedia, in an article about America's most artistic cities says,

In true hipster fashion, if you want the insider scoop on the best art towns in America while they’re still under the radar, there’s no better place to be than Wichita.

This is one of the greatest places in the country to live and visit. Come and see us!

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Another Foot of Rain in California

Yes, that is another 12+" forecast for the watershed above the Oroville Dam (which appears to be fixed) and another nearly 10 inches forecast in the coastal mountains just south of San Francisco. This is going to touch off another round of serious flooding.

As to my comment (below) about the possibility of severe weather tomorrow in the Great Plains, here is the risk map.
On this map, 15% (yellow) is the significant threshold. Here, the main threats are wind gusts of 60 mph with thunderstorms and some storms with 1" in diameter.

Saturday Weather RoundUp

The storm in California was, unfortunately, as bad as I thought. There is excellent coverage at the Los Angeles Times

There is a risk of flash flooding in the Southwest Desert region today and tonight.

There is, yet another, flooding threat to central and northern California.

There is some risk of severe thunderstorms in the Great Plains on Sunday. More on that later.

Friday, February 17, 2017

This May Be the Most Intense Storm in Southern California Since 1983

Here is a regional radar map from the NWS:

The line of thunderstorms is now approaching San Diego.
Damaging winds and flash flooding are likely.