Sunday Fun: By Far, the Coolest Commercial I Have Ever Seen

Watch here, or better still, click here and watch in full screen. I won't tell you what it is because I don't wish to ruin the surprises. 

There is a video that shows how the commercial was made here. 

A Great Book For That Christmas Gift Card

Great Reviews of a Great Book

Or, read this review at Amazon (click to enlarge). 

You can see many more reviews here. 

Big Climate Does Not Want to Solve Global Warming

As we've observed many times, Big Climate would rather have the political issue rather than actually lessening the global warming risk. This becomes abundantly clear when you read the article. This move will cause residences to spend thousands as a result. No one who really wants decarbonization would do this. 

TSA Update

We haven't done a TSA update in ages. Reason just published,

The problem is that Americans way overestimate the effectiveness of the TSA and overall airport security efforts at keeping them safe from bad actors. Truthfully, the fact that they think the TSA accomplishes much of anything at all beyond making air travel a bigger pain in the ass reflects a massive disconnect between what people think is a good idea and what actually has a positive effect on the world.

"Homeland Security conducted an investigation in 2015 which found that undercover investigators were able to successfully smuggle mock explosives and banned weapons through Transportation Security Administration checkpoints in 95% of trials," YouGov helpfully points out. "In stark contrast to these findings … More than three in four Americans say it is very (37%) or somewhat (40%) likely that airport security would stop the person" smuggling a weapon onto a plane.

That the TSA is completely ineffective and an abject failure at everything it does was apparent long before we mourned its 20th anniversary last year. Experts have long emphasized that the TSA is geared towards assuring the public that Something Very Important is being done to keep people safe, even as money and energy is squandered on pointless activities and useless devices. Security expert Bruce Schneier dubs the TSA's role "security theater" since it's geared for public consumption rather than effectiveness.

"The TSA is failing to defend us against the threat of terrorism," Schneier pointed out in 2015. "The only reason they've been able to get away with the scam for so long is that there isn't much of a threat of terrorism to defend against."

Why is there almost no threat of on-board terrorism these days? Because right after September 11, the cockpit doors were reinforced and locked. 

The TSA is nothing but (mostly) rude "security theatre." Somehow airports like San Francisco, Kansas City and Sacramento - which have never had the TSA - manage airport security much better than airports that do, as measured by independent tests. 

Past time to get rid of the TSA. 

UPDATE 10am Thursday. Wait till you read this!

Our Military Has Lost Its Way

America's Darkest Anniversary

Saturday is the anniversary of the horrific Roe v Wade ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court. Sixty-three million babies have been killed since that terrible day in 1973. 

People used to be reluctant and embarrassed to talk about abortion. Now, it is open advocacy as was displayed by the Kansas City Star 's front page (below) on January 9th and celebrities bragging about their abortions. California is considering establishing an abortion tourism industry.

According to historians, America hit its zenith -- military power, standard of living for the broad population with relatively little income inequality, et cetera, in 1975. I do not believe it is a coincidence that our nation has been in decline since then. Roe allowed a pernicious evil into our society, has cast a shadow over our politics and elections, and has eaten away our morals like acid. 

On the 49th anniversary of Roe, here as some facts to keep in mind:

• Abortions performed as a result of rapes are 0.2% of abortions (two per thousand).
• The combination of abortions because of rape, incest, health of the mother and fetal abnormality represent just 1.2% of abortions (12 of every thousand).
• 988 out of every thousand abortions are elective. 
• One in four women in America have had an abortion, a number of them have had multiple abortions.
• There is now a flourishing underground market for fetal parts (legs, arms, etc.) that is aided by Planned Parenthood. 

We are now at the point where mainstream Democratic politicians openly advocate for murdering children after they are born.     

To be clear, neither I nor any other pro-life person I know would force a woman to keep a baby she doesn't want or is not able to care for. A woman in that situation would receive tremendous graces by giving her child up for adoption. 

As to the libelous, "Pro-life people only care about births, not babies," nothing could be farther than the truth. In every city of any size, networks of pro-life people stand ready to assist the mother and child live stable, fulfilling lives. 

Even strongly liberal legal scholars believe Roe was wrongly decided. 

Even some notable legal scholars who favor legal elective abortion as a policy have been willing to acknowledge this. Writing in the Yale Law Journal in 1973, the year Roe was decided, John Hart Ely of Harvard Law School (later dean of Stanford Law School) derided the decision as “bad because it is bad constitutional law, or rather because it is not constitutional law and gives almost no sense of an obligation to try to be.”

And he is not alone. Writing in the Harvard Law Review in 1973, Laurence Tribe explained that “one of the most curious things about Roe is that, behind its own verbal smokescreen, the substantive judgment on which it rests is nowhere to be found.”

Meanwhile, Edward Lazarus, a former clerk to Harry Blackmun, the justice who authored Roe, explained that “as a matter of constitutional interpretation and judicial method, Roe borders on the indefensible.” And it’s worth noting that Lazarus describes himself as “utterly committed to the right to choose.”

While I would be against a letter campaign or something similar to try to influence the Supreme Court's pending decision, I believe all Americans should pray that Roe is overturned and that sanity and morality on this issue should prevail. Yes, there will be areas where abortion will still be legal, but it will be possible to put "guardrails" around it than the unrestricted nature of abortions under Roe. 

Dust Devil on Mars

The Climate Gestapo

On this blog and Twitter, you've read mentions of the Department of Energy's Climate Gestapo. They are now hiring. 

Their job is to get into local communities --  and even come onto your property -- to build support for 'clean' energy. Per various news releases on of their first tasks will be to rally support for transmission lines for wind energy since solar and wind usually aren't located where people live. Per the DOE web site, they will: 

• Engaging and collaborating early with states, tribal nations, and stakeholders to accelerate transmission deployment. 

I'm going to take a wild guess that they will try to blend in and make the public believe that what they are seeing and hearing is a result of local residents. This is a known technique of Big Climate. Of course, $20 billion of your tax dollars will be spent on this effort -- which will result in more expensive and less reliable electricity. 

So, thanks to the Biden Administration, the climate gestapo will become reality. 

Amazing Satellite Animation of the Volcanic Pressure Wave

Saturday, we walked about the barometric pressure wave from the Tonga volcano explosion as it moved across the United States. For example, the red line (below) shows the very rapid fluctuation in barometric pressure at Washington, DC. 

The Pacific GOES-17 weather satellite's sensors (not of the type you see in television weathercasts) was used to created an animation of the wave as emanated from the eruption. A screen capture is below.

The animation is here. Just amazing. Thanks to William Barlow for the animation. 

Major Power Failures in the Southeast

Note: forecast radar for midnight at the bottom of this post. 

A video from North Carolina shows a shorted electrical line on fire as a result of ice-laded tree limbs leaning into the line. The video is quite dramatic, especially with the sound of the off-camera transformer shorting out. 

As of 4:30pm EST, the winterized radar shows the freezing rain moving out of North Carolina and into Virginia. Snow has begun in the Washington area.

Also, as of 4:30, poweroutage.us shows extensive power failures in the Southeast. Some of the outages in Florida are due to the morning tornado outbreak (posting below).

Total outages in the four states are 204,000 homes and businesses which equals about 500,000 people without power. This includes a recent 5,000 customers in Virginia which are not yet showing on the map. 

Below is the forecast radar for midnight. 

Congratulations, NWS Tampa

The EF-2 tornado that struck Ft. Myers at 7:35 this morning was a really tough call. They got it right! Nicely done!

Considering the amount of damage, the warning undoubtedly saved lives -- especially since the storm struck a mile home park (below).

There is more from the News-Press. 

East Coast Winter Storm Update

Courtesy of Tomer Berg, here are forecasts for late this afternoon and evening:

4pm Eastern Time Sunday 

10pm Eastern Time Sunday Evening 

Please note that the rate of snow increases over Pennsylvania and New York this evening as temperatures fall. This will make travel extremely hazardous. There will also be high winds in this area which will cause drifting snow and, perhaps, power failures. 

Sunday Fun: Preposterous "Study"

Radar for Meteorology Students

Here's a little tip that can be used when interpreting radar images, especially in winter when stratiform rain and snow have lower cloud tops than in summer. 

What does this radar image show?

When a radar echo has a circular edge, it is nearly certain the precipitation extends farther in that direction than the radar depicts. Why?

The reason is that the radar overshoots the rain or snow. 

This illustration is a simplification in that the radar beam curves 
at a much lesser rate than the earth's curvature. 

The overshooting results in a circular edge to the radar echo.

And, when the circular shape is between the radar and the precipitation, it means the precipitation is not reaching the ground. 

Volcano Questions Answered

I've had lots of questions today as to whether the volcano might:

1. Have caused high winds in San Francisco overnight?
2. Cause the current winter storm to change path?
3. Cause the La Nina to change to an El Nino through warming of the water due to hot volcanic magma?
4. When will the volcanic cloud arrive over the United States?

and, a number of others. I didn't roll back the twitter feed back very far. I always like questions (@usweatherexpert) so here are some answers:

1. The barometric pressure wave that encircled the world might have caused a period of wind gusts in SFO or anywhere. It caused a micro-tsunami in Puerto Rico. However, any change in winds would be minor.

2.  No. 

3. The underwater lava causes explosions. While that will cause some heat transfer, it is relatively minor and would not significantly effect the La Nina. That is not to say it will not have climatological effects. We don't know yet. For more, see here. 

4. As to ash particles, the answer may be never. The weather of the Southern and Northern Hemispheres operate more or less independently. However, given enough time, the sulphur dioxide may eventually reach North America as it can stay in the atmosphere for years. But, it will take a considerable period of time. 

Current Winter Weather Warnings and Forecasts

Because of the importance of the Tonga Volcanic Eruption, I have been covering that all morning (scroll down). Here is a quick update on the winter weather situation. 

Color code:

• Deep purple: Ice storm warning.
• Gold: High wind warning. 
• Pink: Winter storm warning. 
• Sand: High wind advisory (lesser condition).
• Maroon: High fire danger. 
• Dark green: Winter storm watch. 
• Dark blue: Winter weather advisory. 

Tonga Volcano: Likely Climate Effects

Very pleased to report that a satellite has now surveyed the sulphur dioxide content of the two total eruptions is less than needed to create a major effect on earth's temperatures. 

[Update 1:55pm CST]

There were two giant eruptions of the Tonga Volcano. A prominent volcanologist has weighed in and said the measurements from the first do not indicate a major climate effect. However, after looking at the data from every source I can think of, no one has commented on the second, larger, explosion.

So, it may be that I am too pessimistic about the climate effects. I hope so. 

I'll post more as soon as it is available.

Update: Here is a link to the Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program which has considerable information. 

[Original Posting Below]

This is an enormous story -- that the MSM has still not picked up on -- because of the likely cooling of our climate that it will cause. This appears to be bigger than Mt. Pinatubo which cooled the earth for 1.5

years.

The enormity of the South Pacific volcanic explosion can be seen by clicking here. 

It is now confirmed that this is the biggest eruption of the satellite era -- which goes back 60 years. The eruption was heard in Alaska, 5,300+ miles away. It is likely that the 235 mph updrafts forced "gunk" through the stratosphere and into the mesosphere. 

Nelson Tucker (via Twitter) put the above cloud into perspective by putting it over a map centered at Washington, DC.

The ash cloud is now more than a thousand miles in length.

Climate Effects

I'm not sure the science exists to make an quality forecast of how much cooling and where (Southern Hemisphere only or entire globe) but it will be significant. 

UPDATE with photo. Below is a U.S. government satellite image that helps explain how volcanic ash and discharged chemicals like sulfur dioxide (important climate effects) spread through the stratosphere. Note the clouds are far below the volcanic plume. 

Resuming original post:

Below are world temperatures from 1980 to 2000. I have highlighted the cooling caused by Pinatubo. 

That cooling directly led to crop failures and the record floods of 1993 in the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys north of the Ohio River confluence. 

The 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora in Indonesia caused the "Year Without Summer" -- with snow in July in New England and crop failures in several parts of the world the following year. We don't have a good yardstick by which to compare Tambora and Tonga. 

I'll keep my eye out for more information. 

ADDITION: The atmospheric shock wave reached Miami. The barograph reading is below. Truly a worldwide event. 

You Can Find Frequent Weather Updates on Twitter...

 ... just go to @usweaatherexpert. 

Satellite Image of NJ Chemical Fire

The latest news story is here. 

Below is an image of the fire as sensed by the fire sensing system on the GOES Weather Satellite.

There is also a severe wildfire in far north Texas, to the east of Wichita Falls. 

Snow Playing By the Streetlight

Snow flying around a streetlight. You can see the wind gusts and lulls in the snowflakes' pattern. 

The Winter Storm at 7:35pm

Snow is being reported as far south as Wichita, Kansas.

The storm is moving south and will turn toward the southeast and east tomorrow and tomorrow evening once it reaches the Ozarks. The snow will end in Kansas (exiting the southeast corner of the state) about 3pm Saturday. 

For more on the storm as it moves east, scroll down. 

This is the last update of the evening. 

Winter Storm Update: As We Move Into the Rush Hour and the Weekend

Here is the current winterized radar as of 4:15pm Friday. 

And, the forecast radar for 8am Saturday. Note, the storm will enlarge in size and will strengthen after it arrives in the Ozarks and turns east. 

Here is an updated look at NWS watches/warnings as of 3pm.

• Deep purple (NW South Carolina) = ice storm warning
• Pink = winter storm warning. 
• Gold = high wind warning. 
• Maroon = high wildfire danger. 
• Sand = wind advisory (lesser condition).
• Purple = winter weather advisory. 
• Dark green = winter storm watch. 
• Pale blues = extreme cold advisories 

Winter Storm Forecast Update

If you live in eastern Kansas or adjacent areas, I have a winter weather update for you. Please make sure your friends and family are aware of this change in the forecast. 

The low pressure system is tracking farther west than originally forecasted and there will be a slight amount of instability. The result is that there will be a band of heavy falling snow farther west -- between the Missouri border and the Flint Hills -- than initially expected. It is even possible that an isolated "snow thunderstorm" could occur. 

Please note: the band of heavy snowfall could shift ±25 mi east or west.

Above is the amount of snow I predict to fall but not all of it will accumulate because of the very warm ground. However, wind gusts will be to 35-40 mph which means there will be drifting and blowing snow -- making driving very hazardous during daylight hours Saturday, especially between sunrise and noon.. 

The snow will reach the Kansas-Nebraska/Missouri-Iowa border areas by around 8pm this evening and will drop south from there. Snow should end in Kansas by sunset Saturday. 

Update on Winter Storm

Please factor these forecasts into your plans.

Ice Storm in Southeast - Power Failures Possible. 

Specifically focusing in on the potential for power failures, the greatest chance is in the area in darkest green, which includes Charlotte. 

Recommendations:

• Fill your car with fuel. 
• Purchase grocery and prescriptions needed for at least three days. 
• Make arrangements for friends and relatives who may need it.
• Keep items like phones and laptops on chargers. 
• Get some extra cash. 

Snow Amount Forecasts

The heaviest amounts will occur in Iowa near Des Moines and Ames. 

While these amounts should be considered preliminary, I have moderately high confidence at this point. 

Finally, below is a map of NWS advisories. 

• Pink = winter storm warning. 
• Gold = high wind warning. 
• Maroon = high wildfire danger. 
• Sand = wind advisory (lesser condition).
• Purple = winter weather advisory. 
• Dark green = winter storm watch. 

To @NOAA: Above Normal is a GOOD Thing

Screen capture of NOAA's animation

The climate ghouls were doing their best version of a happy dance earlier today when NOAA released the (disappointing) news (to them) that global 2021 temperatures tied for only the sixth warmest using their metric. Clearly, they are disappointed 2021 didn't set a record. So, they attempted to hype the situation as best they could. 

Why go to the trouble? Remember: NOAA gets more $$ and prestige -- from the "right" people such as high Biden Administration officials and the mainstream media -- when global warming looks worse. So, the hype machine has been operating at full speed. 

As Joanne Nova put it, 

NOAA's graphic (above) has animation stating it has been "45 years since Earth's [sic] had a colder-than-average year." NOAA's grammar is as good as its perspective. 

It is vital to understand:

Above average temperatures = a very good thing!!

If earth had a colder-than-average period, there would be crop failures and mass starvation. 

How do we know? This occurred in the mid-20th Century when temperatures cooled from 1944 to 1978. 

Several #1 best-selling dire-message books were published during this time of famine and crop failures. 

The Population Bomb called for Egypt and Haiti to be blockaded and intentionally starved so the rest of the world would have enough to eat! This was during the "global cooling" scare of the 70's.

With today's warmer weather, mass meteorological crop failures are nearly a thing of the past. 

One of the very worst things that could occur to humanity would be for world temperatures to fall below the 45-year average for any period of time. 

'Coincidentally,' the competing temperature metric by University of Alabama climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer was demonetized by Google last week. His global metric displayed less extreme values. His hype-free assessments of the climate situation surely irritated the wrong people.