Saturday, April 29, 2017

Videos of the Canton, Texas Tornado

There are reports of three dozen injured in the tornado.

Here it is at its formation. If you listen carefully, you can hear the "waterfall" sound associated with tornadoes.

And, here it is a few minutes later. You can see the tornado throwing trees and, again, the waterfall sound.

-- Additional Video --
Here, the tornado has matured into what storm chasers call a "wedge" which means there is a low cloud base and it is at least as wide at the bottom as it is at the top. For a moment, the sound is more of a roar. You will also be able to see the result of the tornado hitting electrical transmission lines.

The video below is from my AccuWeather colleague, Reed Timmer.

7:45pm Flood Update

The purple symbols are where major or record flooding is forecast from now through the next five days.
If you live anywhere near one of the purple symbols, please check local sources for specific flooding information.
These are the smoothed rainfall amounts over the last three days ending at 6pm.

This will be the last flooding update.

Tornado Watch in Texas

The watch is in effect until 10pm. A tornado has struck in or near the town of Canton, Texas, with considerable damage. No word on injuries as yet.

4:20pm Flood and Blizzard Update

Here are storm total rainfall amounts as of 2pm CDT.
As much as 9 inches have fallen over far southwest Missouri. Severe flooding is being reported around Branson as well as other locations. The magenta are current flash flooding warnings.
The greens are various flood forecasts and warnings. The orange = blizzard warnings! Power failures are high likely. The pink is a winter storm warning.

Unfortunately, more rain is on the way. Here are the forecasts for for the next three days. In the High Plains it is a forecast of the moisture content of the snow. 

The Environmentalists Finish With Washington for Another Year

Big Climate is finished trashing Washington, DC for another year. So glad they let us know that the rest of us need to treasure the environment.

10th Anniversary of Greensburg Tornado

May 4 is the 10th anniversary of the Greensburg, Kansas, tornado. That storm destroyed the town -- literally.

This week is ten year celebration of the town's comeback. If you are in the region, I highly recommend paying them a visit. I've been there several times and they are great people with great hospitality.

2pm Flood Update. Heavy Rains Continue

Radar at 1:55pm. Click to enlarge.

Earlier forecast still looks good.

The Anti-Global Warming March... Denver today.

This is known as the "Al Gore Effect."

Catastrophic Flash Flood Danger

Turn Around, Don't Drown
Using AccuWeather's exclusive model and NWS models that were initialized at 10am along with radar and other tools, I cannot overemphasize the flash flood danger through midnight and, likely, beyond. The forecast rainfall amounts are 10am to 10pm.

Please do not travel in these areas. If you do travel, do not try to cross flooded areas by foot or by car!

Extreme Flash Flood Danger

If you live in these areas, especially the red or purple, please be ready to take flood precautions. Whatever you do, do not drive into a flooded area: Turn around, don't drown!

60th Anniversary of the Ruskin Heights Tornado

From the May 435 magazine:
With its profound effects on many who witnessed it, the tornado
spawned a generation of people interested in the weather or
pursuing careers a meteorologists such as Mike Smith, who
chronicled the tornado in his 2010 book, 
Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.

May 20 is the 60th (how time passes!!) of the Ruskin Heights Tornado. This tornado killed 44 people, 7 in Kansas and 37 in the Missouri suburbs of Kansas City. It was one of the most important tornadoes in the history weather science in the United States:
  • It was the first time the Weather Bureau issued what would now be called a tornado warning. By today's standards, 44 is a high death toll. In 1957, it was very low considering it was night and the density of the population.
  • Three students of Grandview High School became meteorologists as a direct result of the tornado. All three would go on to make major contributions to today's tornado warnings and the lives they save.
Warnings, while a completely true story, is written in the form of a novel. So, if you are looking for a great book about weather, a gift for Mother's Day or for a graduation gift, please consider Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather

Friday, April 28, 2017

11:30pm Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Update

Radar at 11:31pm.

My overnight forecast continues more or less unchanged.
We've already had at least one had at least one confirmed tornado southwest of Ft. Smith (T on map). As indicated in the original forecast, I would not be at all surprised to have an additional tornado or two during the night. The tornado threat is primarily to the south of a Ft. Smith, McAlester to Childress line.

There is a threat of hail up to 3" in diameter throughout my forecast area.

If you live in these areas, please make sure you follow the weather during the night.

Finally, dangerous flash flooding possible to likely in the outlined areas the rest of the night.

This is the last update on the blog for the night. 

10:43pm, Tornado Update

Here is the location of the likely tornado as of 10:43pm.
It is headed toward Pocola, OK / Bonanza, AR. Ft. Smith is in the tornado warning and should take cover.

Please see my severe weather forecast below (scroll down). There could be other tornadoes in the purple polygon as well as 3"+ hail and damaging thunderstorm winds.

Tornado Warning Just Issued: 10:30pm

Above posted 7:45pm 4-29-17, pertains to tornado coverage below.

10The red polygon is a tornado warning. The radar is from 10:28pm. The rotation is just west of Poteau, OK. Take cover in these areas!

UPDATE: 10:30PM radar. Hook echo (arrows), which is a radar signature of a tornado, is forming just north of Poteau.

10:38pm, Tornado indicated near Cameron, Oklahoma.
Strong radar indication.

10:15pm Severe Weather Update

My overnight forecast is unchanged from earlier. Forecast valid from 11pm to 6am.

The first of the storms with potential large hail have developed over the eastern part of the forecast area at 10:11pm. The yellow polygons are where large hail is forecast in the next few minutes.

More storms should develop farther west as the night progresses. The risk of large hail is high. The risk of a tornado is slight but not zero. Please make sure you have some way to get storm warning s during the night.