Posts

Comments on Today's and Tomorrow's Storms

Image
Today was an incredible day, unfortunately.  So far, 94  tornadoes have been reported and it appears that many of them were strong and, perhaps, even violent.  The metropolitan areas of Omaha, Des Moines and Lincoln were all hit. Several rural towns were flattened. Yet, as of this moment (9:46pm), there have been no serious injuries.  That is to the tremendous credit of the National Weather Service, broadcast meteorologists, storm chasers and private sector meteorologists. I spent more than 12 hours today forecasting and warning of the storms. Trying to warn of every storm in time, without false alarms (to the greatest extent possible) is taxing and exhausting. Unfortunately, there is the possibility that we may have to go through another tornado outbreak tomorrow. My forecast is here . I do not know whether will be storm chasing (from which I will post updates to Twitter) or will do another day from home.  It is vital that everyone in these areas pays attention to the weather if they

Tornado Paths

Image
These are radar-derived low-level rotation maps as of 7pm.  Eastern Nebraska, including the Lincoln-West Omaha + Omaha/Eppley Field Storm. Likely long-track tornado from SE Kansas crossing into western Missouri. Below are individual storm reports:

Tornado Forecast for Saturday, April 27

Image
I believe Saturday presents a major tornado risk to residents of southeast Kansas and much of the east half of Oklahoma.  The color code: The area in red has ( on my 4-point scale of significant/enhanced/high/extreme) a high  risk of strong tornadoes. Strong is defined as EF-2 or stronger. Yellow, hatched has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Below are enlargements of the enhanced and high risk areas: Tornadoes could occur any time Saturday and/or Saturday night. I recommend you monitor the weather throughout the day in these areas.  The entire enhanced and high risk areas are likely to receive giant hail (defined as 2" or larger) with any strong thunderstorms, tornado-producing or otherwise. If you live in a mobile home or a home, in the strongest way possible,  please locate -- today -- a nearby community shelter. You can find them here .  If you shelter at home, please remember: Have a least three independent ways of receiving

6 pm - Current Tornado Forecasts

Image
Tornado Watch until 11pm. Tornado Watch until 9pm. This watch has been cancelled for Kansas.    Tornado Watch until 9pm.   More tornado watches are below, please scroll down.  Tornado Watch until 7pm. Updated Forecast  The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk. Kansas City has been removed from the enhanced risk of tornadoes but remains in the significant risk.  Below are close-ups of the tornado risk areas. Please keep up on the weather in these areas, especially if you live in the hatched area. You can follow my real-time updates on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  You may wish to recommend this blog and my Twitter handle to friends and relatives in the affected areas.  If you, for example, live in the mobile home and need a community shelter, a list and map is here .  I am going to make a separate posting for tomorrow's tornado forecast. It should be up early this afternoon. 

Note to Readers...

Image
I'm working on the latest forecast for today and Saturday's tornado and severe thunderstorm risks.  Severe thunderstorms continue in southeast Oklahoma. 

Overnight Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Risk - 9:45pm

Image
As predicted (see below), a cluster of thunderstorms will develop over this area and will move northeast during the night. This watch is in effect until 4am Saturday My detailed forecast is below.  Through Tonight There is an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes in western Kansas (details below) after 2pm and the risk will last until around 1am. There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes in northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma after 9pm and continuing overnight. They are not likely to be strong (of course, all tornadoes are dangerous). The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. I have expanded on the Kansas forecast (2pm until 1am) below: The hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The red area has a high risk of a strong tornado. Apologies for my lack of artistic ability. I have extended the enhanced tornado area a bit farther to the east and, especially, northeast near the predicted location of the warm front.  I will have updates this afternoon and tonight on Twit

Tornado Forecast for Friday and Saturday

Image
Friday and Friday Night This is the forecast for all day Friday as until about 2am Saturday. Here is the color code: Yellow, hatched has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes.  ?  = some possibility of having to upgrade the risk in the 4-state area. The upper air indications plus a couple of the models indicate that we may have to elevate the risk in that area. The entire brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Saturday and Saturday Night Here is my forecast for Saturday.  The red area has (on my 4-point scale) a high risk of tornadoes. The orange area has an enhanced risk and the yellow area has a significant risk. While it doesn't seem like it, 48-hours is a long time in tornado forecasting, so this may have to be modified. However, if you live in the areas outlined, please check back with this blog for later forecasts and with local weather information on Saturday. I do frequent updates on Twitter @usweatherexpert. Please follow me for additional updates. Thank you.