UPDATE on Tornado Risk in Southern Great Plains Sunday Afternoon and Night

The NWS's Storm Prediction Center has updated its forecast for Sunday and Sunday Night and it is more similar to mine (below). The differences are worth discussing. 

The hatched area from southwest Oklahoma to Oklahoma City's metro forecasts strong tornadoes and, like mine, they have extended it farther southwest to the Red River. Second, the "significant" tornado risk (their brown area) has been extended into the southern Flint Hills region of Kansas. Finally, they have the DFW Metroplex in their significant tornado risk. I'm a bit farther north. 

I saw an estimate that 1,000 to 3,000 storm chasers are expected to converge on Oklahoma tomorrow. I have no idea if that will be the case. As there are no basements in Oklahoma, historically, some residents get in their cars and attempt to flee the forecasted paths of storms. That could clog some roads.

So, if I were a resident of the region, I would:
  • Start closely monitoring the weather after 1pm.
  • Make sure family and friends are monitoring the weather.
  • Make sure you can get family, especially infirm members, to shelter quickly if a tornado warning is issued.
  • Do not try to drive to a shelter after a tornado warning is issued. If a tornado watch is issued and strong thunderstorms approach you area, proactively go to your shelter area. Don't wait for a warning if you live in a mobile home or other unsafe building. 
  • Insure your shelter area is ready to go. A couple of bottles of water, diapers, radio or TV, and always wear shoes into your shelter. 
My forecast (10:26a today) is below and is still valid. I will update all of this Sunday morning. 

Finally, there is a risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night in the central and southern Great Plains. 


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