Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Are We Being Deliberately Set Up For a Winter of Torment?

Texas: Valentine's Week 2021
This is an report I believe is important and, for which, I have done two weeks of research. Allow me to state up front: I hope I am too cynical and wrong in my predictions. But, if I am correct about the weather this winter,  conditions could get very bad. In this piece, I will explain the reasons for my concern and what we should do to prepare. 

The Convergence of Problems in America
  • To set the stage, please recall the extreme cold during Valentine's Week 2021. There were extreme issues in Texas with lack of electricity and natural gas, unheated homes, hospitals and businesses; more than seven hundred deaths, and economic losses north of $100 billion. You may have forgotten that many areas outside of Texas had blackouts due to an insufficient supply of electrify. 
  • Fast forward to today: In Wichita, where we live, we are starting to see empty shelves in grocery, hardware and big box stores. Restaurants are cutting hours and menu items. If tweets from friends in other cities are any indication, this problem is becoming widespread and worsening. 
  • These issues are occurring during the time of year when the weather is most cooperative, on average. 
  • Shortages are not confined to tangible goods. Look what is occurring in energy all over the world. Promoting "cooking without electricity"?!
  • Shortages aren't the only issue. In the past month, energy prices have skyrocketed. The graph below is the stock price of Chevron for the past month. Up 15% in just four weeks. 
If all of this isn't sufficient to cause concern, things may be about to get much worse.


Weather Winter Forecast 2021-22

You don't see 30-day and longer forecasts on this blog because they have no consistent skill. However, meteorologist Joe Bastardi has a track record that I feel comfortable sharing. His forecasts for this winter should be raising red flags. 

Temperatures November through March
Joe Bastardi forecasts, used with permission
https://www.weatherbell.com


About two-thirds of the nation are forecasted to have colder than average weather -- everything on the blue side of the line marked "N" (normal). When discussing periods as long as five months, a difference of 1° colder than normal is quite significant. 

Snowfall November through March
Things may be about to get much worse. Everything on the "blue" side of the "N" (normal) line is forecasted to have more snow and ice than normal. 
If all of these problems are accumulating during a period of quiet, dry weather pattern, what will occur during a colder than average winter with large amounts of ice and snow? 


From Bad to Worse?

All of the above is occurring within a societal "climate" that could multiply these issues very quickly given a bad winter.

President Biden's Policies
One of the first thing President Biden did after being sworn in was to cancel the Keystone Pipeline (photo of it under construction is below). That would have brought energy into the United States that is not available now. 
Interestingly, Biden allowed Russia to build a similar pipeline to Germany. Russia is benefiting mightily from these higher prices. 

In addition, the president took various measures to decrease the amount of fracking going on in our nation, increasing our dependence on foreign sources. These two policies greatly increase the probability of energy shortages and higher costs. 

The incredible jam at our ports is not entirely bad luck.
Part of the issues involve unionized* work rules at various ports, especially the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The heads of the Longshoreman Union are aligned with the Democrats. President Biden could choose to put pressure on the union to allow for more overtime. So far, that hasn't occurred. Why?

There is a tremendous shortage of truck drivers. In addition, the railroads created a mess for themselves by laying off too many during 2020 and by running excessively long trains for which their systems are not designed (attempt to cut costs) that foul up traffic. 
Combine this huge traffic jam from the ports, the highways, the rail lines, with extreme cold plus snow and ice: they are a recipe for not only empty shelves but for critical industrial shortages especially when you include that a great deal of oil, and almost all of the coal, gets shipped by trains these days. Power outages are likely, especially since wind energy fails during extreme cold (winds are usually calm on record cold mornings) as well as icy conditions. 

While excessive heat in the summer is bad, people die and experience extreme distress without adequate heat. And, "coincidentally" -- with increased shortages -- the idea of enforced decreased food consumption in the USA (for our own good, of course!) is being floated this month in a peer-reviewed medical journal. 
Why isn't the government getting out ahead of these problems you might ask?

I think it is entirely possible the administration wants more crisis and sees them as an opportunity to, in the words of President Obama, "fundamentally transform" America. 


Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste

Rahm Emmanuel, President Obama's chief of staff, is widely credited with the "crisis" comment. But, there is a corollary.
I believe there are many in the administration that would be thrilled with a huge crisis involving food, energy and more than they could blame on "capitalism." Of course, the 'solution' will involve the following:
  • Less free enterprise. 
  • Even more abridging of our constitutional rights.
  • Much more wind energy, even though wind energy is a big part of the problem. If, instead of windmills, the money had been spent on nuclear, we would have plenty of carbon-free power. We will have to cut our power consumption while environmental hypocrites continue their high carbon lifestyles.
  • To pay for all of this, we will need to pay our "fair share" -- higher or much higher taxes. 
  • An even greater separation between to top 1/2 of one-percent and the rest of us.
  • Like the vaccine mandates, these new laws will not apply to the White House, Congress or the Supreme Court. 
And, it goes without saying that any crisis will be used by Big Climate to advance its largely anti-human and often hypocritical agenda. 
Below is Lady Gaga wearing a "climate" shirt. On the right she is stepping off a private jet to Australia. 


We are rapidly losing the ideals of America.
This tweet makes an excellent point. 
But, President Biden is determined to do everything he can to boost China, even to the extent of purchasing their military equipment over the objections of the Pentagon


What Do We Do to Prepare?

If you are so inclined, write the White House and Congress.

More practically,
  • Make sure you have at least one week's supply of everything you need at all times. More if you can afford it.
  • Donate to now your local food pantry so they can stock up now for people in difficult economic situations.
  • If you can afford it and are inclined, now would be a great time to get a generator that can power heating for your home and other crucial items. Adding solar may be a good option. 
  • Look at other ways to heat your home in case of power failure: fireplace (order wood now), catalytic heater, or other backup.
  • Emergency lightning other than candles (they started a number of fires in Texas) such as a Coleman battery lantern or one of several other options. 
  • First aid kit.
  • Powerful flashlight. 
  • Extra water and/or water purification supplies. 
  • Make sure your outdoor hoses are disconnected. 
  • Fire extinguisher, at least one. I recommend in the bedroom and kitchen. 
  • Manual can opener.
  • Carbon monoxide detector.
  • Baby supplies, especially disposable diapers. 
  • Plenty of extra cash. Credit cards don't work in power failures. 
  • Keep your car as charged as possible or your gasoline tank always above 1/3rd tank. Fill up before a major cold front or forecast blizzard or ice storm. 
  • Extra batteries.
  • Paper plates, cups, etc. 
  • Ice melt. 
  • Ice scraper for your car.
  • Kitty litter for traction. 
There may be things I am missing. Remember, if I am wrong, all of these things will come in handy at some point in the future. None are perishable. 

Again, I hope I am wrong about all of this. But forewarned is forearmed. 

* Full disclosure, while inactive, I am a union member and I like and respect private sector unions.

© 2021 Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC

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