Serious Weather Threats This Weekend

By -
This, unfortunately, is going to be a busy Mother's Day weekend for meteorologists.

There is the severe thunderstorm and tornado outlook for this afternoon and tonight.

Tornadoes
Keeping in mind that 5% is the significant threshold, the tornado outlook includes Kansas Speedway where this week's Sprint Cub race is being held this evening.

Large Hail

 For large hail, 15% is the significant threshold and the hatch area is where two inch or larger hailstones are forecast to occur.

Sunday

 I'm concerned this will be a big day for destructive thunderstorms, including tornadoes. Here is the Storm Prediction Center's Forecast of combined (tornado, damaging thunderstorm wind, large hail) threats. The hatching is where very large hail and violent tornadoes are predicted.

That said, I believe there are two primary areas where tornados threaten Sunday afternoon or night.
If you live in the threatened areas, I urge yo to keep up on the latest weather information.

Comments

  1. UnknownMay 10, 2014 at 10:16 AM

    Something that I find strange on big severe days like this are the differences between neighboring NWS offices in their expectations.

    For example, Norman NWS certainly mentions a tornado threat tomorrow, especially NW/NC Oklahoma. Yet, the Wichita NWS doesn't even mention an isolated tornado in the forecast discussions or HWOs.

    I would think the threat extends into Kansas, so why are the differences so big in their expectations?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mike SmithMay 10, 2014 at 11:25 AM

    Russell,
    Every meteorologist looks at things differently depending on their training and experience. I may be weighting differently than the ICT NWS.
    Mike

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more