Thanks so much for the detailed projected rainfall maps! It gives us some hope out here West of Wichita. This really is it as far as having a chance of getting the wheat up and well-stooled prior to dormancy. Getting a good stand is the first step on the road to next year's hoped-for harvest.
I do worry about the multi-year drought scenario. Looking at Climatological Data, I believe we had worse droughts than what we had in the 30s and 50s as recently as the 1870s and 1890s.
The last thirty years of climate cycle has really fooled a lot of people as to what this area is capable of in regards to extended dryness.
More heavy rain (snow in the mountains) forecast. Rains have already begun over the southern two-thirds of the state. See 3:15pm radar below. In addition, there is small risk of a tornado, especially tomorrow morning, in coastal areas of Southern California, shown in dark green.
This past Friday, we had a great example of how a meteorologist can tell the difference between side-lobes (a false echo that mimics a tornado's circulation on radar) and one indicating a tornado is forming or in progress. I'm going to walk you through it so young meteorologists, in a similar case, won't make the mistake of mistaking side lobes for a tornado. This case was in north central Texas on February 2nd. I'm using the Abilene/Sweetwater WSR-88D and the software is RadarScope. When I draw on one panel of the screen, it shows up on the other in the same place, so the measurements are about as exact as any in meteorology. The Thunderstorm Cluster, 4:24pm Above is a cluster of thunderstorms with the two storms with arrows starting to transition to supercells. We already have the northern storm (just south of Aspermont) moving north northeast. In a situation like this, the storm will likely be "a hailer" -- meaning it is likely to produce hail, possibly ...
As much as 6 inches of precipitation (rain + the moisture content of snow) is forecast in the Sierra of California) during the next five days. Given the rain they've already had the past 30 days, it equates to an early start to the California rainy season.
Thanks so much for the detailed projected rainfall maps! It gives us some hope out here West of Wichita. This really is it as far as having a chance of getting the wheat up and well-stooled prior to dormancy. Getting a good stand is the first step on the road to next year's hoped-for harvest.
ReplyDeleteI do worry about the multi-year drought scenario. Looking at Climatological Data, I believe we had worse droughts than what we had in the 30s and 50s as recently as the 1870s and 1890s.
The last thirty years of climate cycle has really fooled a lot of people as to what this area is capable of in regards to extended dryness.
Thank you for the comment. Well said.
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