More heavy rain (snow in the mountains) forecast. Rains have already begun over the southern two-thirds of the state. See 3:15pm radar below. In addition, there is small risk of a tornado, especially tomorrow morning, in coastal areas of Southern California, shown in dark green.
This past Friday, we had a great example of how a meteorologist can tell the difference between side-lobes (a false echo that mimics a tornado's circulation on radar) and one indicating a tornado is forming or in progress. I'm going to walk you through it so young meteorologists, in a similar case, won't make the mistake of mistaking side lobes for a tornado. This case was in north central Texas on February 2nd. I'm using the Abilene/Sweetwater WSR-88D and the software is RadarScope. When I draw on one panel of the screen, it shows up on the other in the same place, so the measurements are about as exact as any in meteorology. The Thunderstorm Cluster, 4:24pm Above is a cluster of thunderstorms with the two storms with arrows starting to transition to supercells. We already have the northern storm (just south of Aspermont) moving north northeast. In a situation like this, the storm will likely be "a hailer" -- meaning it is likely to produce hail, possibly ...
As much as 6 inches of precipitation (rain + the moisture content of snow) is forecast in the Sierra of California) during the next five days. Given the rain they've already had the past 30 days, it equates to an early start to the California rainy season.
Great. Omaha again in the cross hairs. At least it is a relatively small chance.
ReplyDeleteActually, 15% is a fairly large chance.
ReplyDeleteThe 15% refers to a tornado within 25 miles of any spot in the 15% area. Since tornadoes are infrequent, 15% is a fairly high number.
The black hatching is areas that could experience an F-2 or greater intensity tornado.
Even without tornadoes, doesn't that also mean more rain, and high straight-line winds that could push the Missouri over the top of levees?
ReplyDeleteIf I remember correctly, Joplin was in a 10% hatched area on May 22 so those probabilities are nothing to sneeze at.
ReplyDeleteElaine
Yes, there is already serious flooding in some of these areas.
ReplyDelete