Thursday, June 23, 2011


As the sun rose over Oklahoma City's Bricktown, one of the local meteorologists on television told viewers that "something" might be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico in seven to ten days and might move into Texas and, perhaps, later move into Oklahoma.

Let me translate:  "Something" is a euphemism for tropical storm or hurricane. For reasons that have never been clear to me, meteorologists do this all the time. They don't want to go out on a limb because there is a part two: These forecasts of tropical storms out to ten days are almost never correct. The computer models forecast probably five tropical storms for every storm that actually occurs. When a ten day hurricane forecast is correct (i.e., correct intensity and correct location of landfall) it is more along the lines of the "broken watch right twice a day."

So, don't sweat the ten day hurricane forecasts.

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