More heavy rain (snow in the mountains) forecast. Rains have already begun over the southern two-thirds of the state. See 3:15pm radar below. In addition, there is small risk of a tornado, especially tomorrow morning, in coastal areas of Southern California, shown in dark green.
7am Sunday Unfortunately, the forecast is on track. Heavy to, in spots, torrential rain is falling in southeast California and parts of Arizona. Flash flood watches and warnings are in effect. Please check with your local trusted source of weather information in order to make sure you have the latest information for your home or business. Again, I strongly discourage travel today and tomorrow. 5:15pm Saturday This is a terribly serious situation as the crest will be very close to the record stage! Many more evacuation orders will be issued. It is vital to have a "go kit." Scroll down to the link to show you what to gather. 12:15p: After I prepared the forecast below, an updated rainfall amount forecast for Arizona came in. More than 8" of rain is forecast to fall in there next three days! This may cause catastrophic flooding in a few spots with widespread serious flooding. Please see preparedness recommendations below. -- original post -- This is the flash flood ...
The tornado forecast is unchanged from yesterday. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and the hatching indicates they could be strong. During the next three days, more than five inches of rain is forecast to fall in Iowa (orange). The result is a serious flood risk over Iowa and into northwest Missouri in the dark blue. In the pale blue, there is a lesser flood risk.
Great. Omaha again in the cross hairs. At least it is a relatively small chance.
ReplyDeleteActually, 15% is a fairly large chance.
ReplyDeleteThe 15% refers to a tornado within 25 miles of any spot in the 15% area. Since tornadoes are infrequent, 15% is a fairly high number.
The black hatching is areas that could experience an F-2 or greater intensity tornado.
Even without tornadoes, doesn't that also mean more rain, and high straight-line winds that could push the Missouri over the top of levees?
ReplyDeleteIf I remember correctly, Joplin was in a 10% hatched area on May 22 so those probabilities are nothing to sneeze at.
ReplyDeleteElaine
Yes, there is already serious flooding in some of these areas.
ReplyDelete