If Only the U.S. Media Would Conduct an Interview Like This

By -


John Hirst is the head of the British Met Office, UK's equivalent to the U.S.'s National Weather Service.  Mr. Hirst firmly believes in human-caused global warming.

Prior to Climategate he proclaimed,

“But actually there’s massive certainty about global warming. The evidence is overwhelming, irrefutable."

In response to Climategate, he said,
Met Office chief executive John Hirst and chief scientist Professor Julia Slingo organised the petition. They said: "This tremendous response affirms our confidence in the science, and reinforces the immediacy of the challenge and the critical nature of the discussions at Copenhagen."
The petition said: "We, members of the UK science community, have the utmost confidence in the observational evidence for global warming and the scientific basis for concluding that it is due primarily to human activities."
Here is an amazing interview from the BBC about the Met Office's failure (like the U.S.'s Climate Prediction Center's) to predict the cold wave the month before it occurred.  The interviewer was well-prepared, knew the facts, and did a great job.  
The takeaway from this is not to attack Hirst.  I'm sure he is sincere in his beliefs.  The two things I would like you to consider are, "How can the Met Office be 'certain' about man-caused global warming 30 years in the future when the organization cannot forecast a cold wave 30 days in advance?" The second is how refreshing it was to see an interview that did not follow the coached template I wrote about Thursday. 


UPDATE:  What was the interviewer referring to when he said "Bar-B-Que Summer"?  Answer: the British Met Office used that phrase in late-spring 2009 when it forecast a record hot summer for the UK, as in "we'll all be roasting" (my words).  Instead, it was one of the coldest summers in UK history.  


UPDATE II, January 13th:  I wasn't the only one struck by this interview. Roger Pielke, Sr. blogged on it today.  His bottom line?  "To claim that the UK Met Office can provide skillful forecasts of the likelihood of such extreme events decades from now based just on the knowledge of a subset of human climate forcings (i.e. primarily added atmospheric carbon dioxide) is a very significant misrepresentation of the science."

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more