Probabilities for Watches and Warnings

By -
There are a number of meteorologists who believe we should convert to probability-based tornado watches and tornado warnings.  I believe the current system works well and probabilities would be a serious step backward.  You can read the debate from both sides here.

I welcome your comments.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Overnight Tornado Forecast Posted at 7:05pm

By -
Image
Here is the tornado forecast for the rest of the night (till 6am CST). Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Blown = significant risk of tornadoes.  This will be the last update of the night. Tornado Watch until 2am. Please make sure you have ways of getting warnings of tornadoes and 80 mph winds.  6:15pm  NWS believes the chances for tornadoes and damaging winds are increasing in Mississippi. They also say they are going to extend the tornado watch to the east later this evening.  5:35pm: The northwest part of the tornado watch has been cancelled Here is the area where tornadoes are more likely from 4:30 to 7:30pm. From Atmosphere Analytics Rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch till 9pm If you live in these areas it is vital  to monitor the weather until the watch expires at 9pm  Note the forecast is for "numerous strong tornadoes." A very rare "particularly dangerous situation" ...
Read more

Tornado Forecast Update at 2am Wednesday

By -
Image
2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage.  Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today.  1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night.  11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas.  This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about.  I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
Read more

Updated Winter Storm Forecast, 9:30pm CST

By -
Image
--- This Forecast Has Been Updated  --- You Will Find the New Forecast Here After a quick look at the new data this evening, I believe the forecast is still good. There may be light amounts of freezing rain in north central Texas as far south as Waco. It will not be enough to cause power outages but -- if it occurs -- it will make roads very slick.  The snow amount forecasts haven't changed. I believe DFW will receive 1-3" with heavier amounts as you go northeast. I-30 will become a mess for its entire route.  --- original forecast still valid --- Here are the latest NWS winter weather warnings and watches as of 3:15pm Note: the white "hole" in southwest Texas will be filled in with a purple winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow.  Color codes: Pink = winter storm warning  Dark green = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Bright green = ongoing flood warning  Dark blue and bright turquoise = freeze warnings.  As expected, t...
Read more