Wednesday, May 20, 2020

15 Hours of Headlines: Whatever This Is, It Isn't Science

From Drudge today:


Haven't the epidemiology models taken us down this road before? Like, three months ago*?


Meanwhile, at the time time as Drudge:


And, from NBC News' correspondent Carl Quintanilla, at the same time as the above:

Glenn Reynolds accurately describes this fiasco:
AND YET POOLS WERE CLOSED EVERYWHERE, WITH NO SCIENCE BEHIND THE DECISION:  ‘No evidence’ COVID-19 can be spread in swimming pools, CDC says.
Apparently the only coronavirus countermeasure that can’t be deployed without peer-reviewed, double-blind studies involving thousands is hydroxychloroquine. For everything else it’s just go with your gut and shout “Science!” at anyone who expresses doubts.

Other sciences are learning what meteorologists learned a full century ago: Forecasting, with any consistent accuracy, is extraordinary difficult. It is not accomplished by throwing something at the wall and seeing if it sticks. How will epidemiologists count (they won't) the people who have to work another 2-4 years before retiring because they lost a significant amount of their retirement funds when the stock market collapsed? 

Lives and livelihoods are still being destroyed because of what history will likely view as one of the five worst public policy failures in United States history. 

Yes, the lockdowns for 2-3 weeks to "flatten the curve" (allow hospitals and public health time to gear up) were justified. If you were a governor and public health officials were practically demanding the shutdown, it would be been irresponsible to do otherwise...given what we knew at the time. 

Now, we know: For the population as a whole, this was catastrophically incorrect. Open up everything immediately!


* I believe it is also worth pointing out that medicine doesn't even seem to be able to consistently determine what is, exactly, the scientific definition of a COVID-19 death. See below.

Update since yesterday: The "what is a coronavirus case?" scandal (and, that's what it is) has widened. Wait until you read this! President Trump needs to start all over again with the CDC. Top to bottom. 

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