Tuesday, May 12, 2020

COVID Model Accuracy Update: Terrible

Just five days ago, I wrote about how bad the COVID fatality models have been in Kansas. Since, they are gotten worse...significantly worse. Here is the latest.
click to enlarge
On the fifth of May, the model predicted 158 fatalities and the actual number was 144. The model was off by 13.

Today, the model forecasts 181 deaths and the actual number is 158. The model is off by 23.

Both forecasts were well outside of the bottom of the "confidence interval" (tan tinting).

Kansas began opening earlier this month. That is likely why the model has accelerated its forecast number of fatalities but the rate of actual fatalities has not increased.

These models are making meteorologists look like geniuses. They are completely unsuitable for real-world decision-making. 

And, from Twitter this evening:
The America of 1968-69 was more religious and less risk adverse than the America of today. Friends of mine, and I, have noted that those most concerned about COVID-19 seem to be those less religious. That does not mean that religious people are less scientific (in fact, I believe the reverse is true). It is just that religious people realize there is an afterlife and, while they greatly value earthly life (as most religions command), they realize there a life beyond.
Addition, 2pm Wednesday, a wise woman, who lives in NYC, was posting this about the same time I posted the above:

And COVID-19 still isn’t shaping up to be that kind of event. We have a lot more information now. It seems, though, that people have become less able to assume any risks at all, and more demanding of total or nearly total safety. Meanwhile, to achieve that safety, many advocate the continuation of measures that are bound to sink this country – not to mention causing people to die of or suffer from other diseases or phenomena such as domestic abuse or suicide.

[2nd update, 2:20pm]. This is required reading. For anyone who is bothering to look, the coronavirus models are utter failures.

I'm one of the people who needs to take special precautions and I will do so as long as the virus remains an acute threat. However, I do not expect our entire society to continue to be shut down to protect me or the others at special risk. Open things up, now.

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