Thursday, May 7, 2020

Coronavirus Models Continuing to Fail

The Wichita Eagle is currently reporting 144 tragic deaths in Kansas due to the coronavirus. We mourn each of them. I am using my home state of Kansas as representative of the Great Plains region.
Please note from the graph (above) that the death rate is decreasing. The fact deaths are decreasing is very good news.

However, the models being used by politicians to forecast deaths continue to fail, badly.
The graph predicts 158 deaths by today with a range from 153 to 172. So, the actual number of 144 is well outside the "confidence interval" which has occurred several times the last two weeks. One does not have to be an expert statistician to figure this out.

With death rates decreasing and with the models overstating the danger, it is extremely discouraging to read the Wichita Eagle lobbying for a "snitch line" (my words).
Amendment I
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.
I'm so old that I remember when journalists, in particular, supported the First Amendment. That includes the right to "peaceably assemble."

Governor Kelly has already been slapped down by the courts for singling out churches for extra coronavirus measures. I doubt her latest rules would withstand court scrutiny. There is very little (actually, nearly zero) risk of people who are outdoors spreading the virus. Given that, the last thing Wichita needs is a "snitch line."

The COVID-19 threat, while still significant, in no way supports these types of measures. It is past time to discard this bad science, take precautions* (mask and gloves when indoors), and get on with our lives.


*As of Friday morning, Sedgwick Co. has had 18 deaths out of a population of 530,000+. The number of cases, per the NYT's analysis peaked more than two weeks ago.

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