12:25pm Tornado Outbreak Update

By -

A very, very dangerous situation has gotten underway.


We have two Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watches. The newest PDS is for the Ohio Valley and includes Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati, Louisville and Lexington until 9pm.



The first PDS continues in effect until 6pm and includes Indianapolis, Evansville, and Paducah. 



If you've read Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather you know how the most violent tornadoes come from supercell thunderstorms. Those are supercells (arrows) moving into the area of high significant tornado index values (2 is the threshold).



I expect violent, possibly long-tracked, tornadoes to move across this area in the next few hours. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

[1:10am Update] Tornado Forecast for Rest of the Night

By -
Image
Thank you  for coming to read my tornado coverage from Saturday and Saturday night. As there were about 100,000 brand new readers, please allow me to introduce myself. I the retired Sr. VP of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions and retired Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. Specialized for 50 years in extreme weather forecasts and warnings. I invite you to bookmark this site:   https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/    Timely forecasts of tornadoes, floods, blizzards and hurricanes are provided. On slower weather days we talk about global warming, science and issues of interest to society. On Sundays, we usually lighten things a bit. For real-time storm warning bulletins, you can follow me here:   @usweatherexpert .  Thanks again  for reading! ---Last night's Coverage --- After 16 straight hours, I must call it a night. All of the information below is current as of 1:10am. Thank you for reading and goodnight.  As of 12:35am, much of south central Oklahoma has no electr
Read more

First Tornado Watch of the Day Issued

By -
Image
Unfortunately, the forecast is working out. A tornado watch is already in effect in Oklahoma and Texas.  This watch is in effect until 1pm.  Thunderstorms are developing in the southeast Texas Panhandle. They will move northeast and strengthen. Please keep a close eye on the weather in these areas.  I'll have comprehensive forecast up in 60-90 minutes.
Read more

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more