Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Pro-Global Warming Behavior Exactly As Forecast

This is was posted last week in a comment pertaining to Fakegate (I do not know the name of the commenter):

On the whole AGW theory supporters will do anything but talk about the science. They do make broad sweeping claims that are not reflected by the data. They don’t just stop at ‘it’s bad’ but insist on ‘it’s rapidly getting worse’. It takes but a few minutes for a sceptic to prove that by any metric you can think of, save maybe Arctic ice, it is not getting worse. If they’d lie about something so easy to prove, one is left with the only conclusion that they’d lie about the lot. Claiming cold events as proof of AGW has to be the lamest and most credibility busting act of all. They could just say that cold events are still to be expected under natural variation but no, they have to kick their cause into the long green grass of loony land.

Bolding mine. 

I thought about the above assertion when I was tweeted this story by an environmental journalist today that ties the recent warmth in the U.S. east of the Rockies to -- what else -- global warming. 

Daily record highs have been falling in droves across the region, with some remarkable occurrences. One weather station in Michigan hit 85°F, breaking the previous daily record high by an unheard of 32°, which is also 48° above average. Two stations recorded low temperatures that beat the previous record high, something that experienced weatherman Jeff Masters had never seen before. This record warmth is not confined to the United States. Several Canadian cities surpassed both their all-time March and April records this week, an amazing feat considering the vast differences between March and April during a normal spring.

This historic heat wave was also associated with the most humid air ever observed this early in the year in the Midwest. An increase in high-humidity heat waves is undesirable because the humidity increases the heat index and prevents nighttime cooling, both of which increase the health impacts of heat events.

Unfortunately, global warming is loading the dice in favor of events like this.

So, how long does it take to use the science to prove the above is patently false? Less time than it takes me to type this. 

The central and eastern U.S. warm weather started in February when world temperatures were below normal.

[caption id="attachment_8087" align="aligncenter" width="108" caption="If world temperatures are colder than normal there cannot be "global warming""][/caption]

Here is a map of world temperature departures from normal in February, 2012:

[caption id="attachment_8089" align="aligncenter" width="462" caption="From Danish Meteorological Bureau"][/caption]

Note the extraordinary cold from Europe to Russia. The warming in north central Asia is likely overstated as there are very, very few measuring stations there. This data agrees with the worldwide temperature graph that -- over all -- the world was cooler than normal in February. 

The March numbers are not available yet, but I expect them to be cool, as well. Why? Because temperatures, just about everywhere in the world except the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., have been colder than normal.  The weather pattern is essentially the same as for February. 

So, here is yet another pro-global warming panic story that could be proven false with less than five minutes of work.

Oh, and by the way, even sea ice is getting better (see below):

The bottom line: The people at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions wrote about global warming that didn't exist causing conditions that were highly localized -- not global. Their posting was advocacy, not science. Exactly the behavior the commenter described.

Is this the behavior of people confident the science is on their side?

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