Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Dorian Report, Wednesday, 11:10am

More and more it appears Dorian, at (perhaps major) hurricane strength, will make landfall in Florida late in the Labor Day weekend. 
After nearly 5-decades watching these storms, several things stand out:
  • It is a compact storm. They have a tendency to undergo rapid intensification. 
  • It is forecast to make a "left" turn (from toward the northwest to toward the west) as it approaches Florida and  those tend to intensify. 
  • Meteorological conditions are forecast to be favorable for strengthening. 
  • While there are some outliers, the most reliable hurricane forecast models indicate Florida is the most likely location of landfall. 
So, it seems prudent for Floridians to prepare for a hurricane (as opposed to a tropical storm) and to consider that this may be a major hurricane at landfall.

Here is the earliest reasonable time, per NHC, when winds of 35 to 70 mph may arrive.
What to do?

Given it is a holiday weekend, you may wish to consider getting out of Dodge before an evacuation starts. Close down the home (turn off electricity, water, board up windows, etc.) and go somewhere like Atlanta. Make a reservation now. Let Mother Nature do her thing without you and your family harm's way. 

If that is impractical, then I urge you to consider the following:
  • If you want a generator,  have an electrician install it. If you decide on a portable generator, make sure place it outside well away from any air intakes. 
  • An automobile power inverter is very handy for charging your cell phone and laptop. 
  • Prepare for evacuation now if you live within 5 mi. of the coast. Get paper road maps. 
  • Very good chance your electric can opener will not work in a hurricane (the power will fail). Make sure you have plenty of canned goods (they don't spoil) and have manual can openers and bottle openers. 
Some of the computer models have Dorian crossing the Florida Peninsula and out into the Gulf of Mexico. It is too soon to know if that is a likely outcome. However, if you live anywhere in Florida or along the Alabama or Mississippi coast, please continue to monitor the situation. 

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