Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Hurricane Dorian Update: Wednesday, 5pm EDT

All of the reliable computer models place landfall of what is forecast to be major hurricane Dorian on the central or south Atlantic coast of Florida during the latter half of the Labor Day weekend. It is still too soon to state exactly where on the coast landfall will occur.

4:45pm radar image of Dorian.

Below is the National Hurricane Center's latest forecast. The outline represents the average error of their forecasts and they consider the entire area within the white outline to be at risk.
click to enlarge
My personal opinion is that the storm will make landfall between Miami and St. Augustine as a major hurricane. Serious inland flooding is likely to occur with this storm in many areas of Florida. Tornadoes are likely, as well.

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast.

Here is the earliest reasonable time of arrival of sustained winds of 35 mph or higher.

Excellent advice from meteorologist Brad Panovich.

There is a significant chance Dorian will emerge over Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that it could reintensify and be a significant theat to the northern Gulf coast. However, it is too soon to make a specific forecast at this point. 

What to do now?

Given it is a holiday weekend, you may wish to consider getting out of Dodge before an official evacuation starts and roads become jammed. Close down the home (turn off electricity, water, board up windows, etc.) and go somewhere like Atlanta well out of harm's way. Make a reservation now. Let Mother Nature do her thing without you and your family harm's way. 

If that is impractical, then I urge you to consider the following:
  • If you want a generator,  have an electrician install it. If you decide on a portable generator, make sure to place it outside well away from any air intakes. 
  • An automobile power inverter is very handy for charging your cell phone and laptop. 
  • Prepare for evacuation now if you live within in a coastal county. Obtain paper road maps. 
  • If my intensity forecast is correct, there will be widespread power failures and power will be out for days or even a week or two. 
  • Very good chance your electric can opener will not work in a hurricane (the power will fail). Make sure you have plenty of canned goods (they don't spoil) and have manual can openers and bottle openers. 
  • Get extra cash from the ATM. Credit cards will not work without power.
  • Keep your automobile filled with fuel. 
Some of the computer models have Dorian crossing the Florida Peninsula and out into the Gulf of Mexico. It is too soon to know if that is a likely outcome. However, if you live anywhere in Florida or along the Alabama or Mississippi coast, please continue to monitor the situation. 

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