Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Yet Another Global Warming Prediction Gone Wrong

In 2007,

after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”

Oops.  Here are the values of Arctic sea ice up to yesterday:
Back in 2007 (blue line), the global warming doomsters took a one year minima in sea ice (caused by unusual wind currents, not temperatures) and told us we would be ice free this summer. Of course, the media ate it up.

Current values (thick black line) are the highest they have been since 2005.

While WattsUpWithThat and other web sites track all of this daily, don't count on seeing this story in the New York Times. This is yet another example of a catastrophic global warming forecast gone wrong.

Note to our new readers. I believe that human beings, on balance and other factors equal, warm the earth. But, there is zero evidence of catastrophic global warming of the type Al Gore and others like him hype.


  1. That graph is somewhat disturbing though when you consider that from 1979 to 2004, average April Arctic sea ice extent had never been measured below 14M km2.
    That graph might look very different if years before 2005 were included.

  2. Thanks for the comment, but it is not as disturbing as it might seem.

    1979 (chosen because it is the beginning of satellite coverage of the Arctic) happened to be at the end of a three decade period of global cooling that ran from approximately 1945 to approximately 1978. So, because of the unusually cool weather during the middle of the 20th Century, 1979 had much above normal ice cover. Part of the drop to 2001 was coverage getting back to "normal" -- whatever that value might be. The reason for the uncertainty as to normal in satellite-measured ice cover is because there simply was no data before '79.


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