Severe Weather Odds Increasing

After a relatively calm spell for May, the chances for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging thunderstorm warnings will be increasing from today through the Memorial Day weekend.

For today:

A severe thunderstorm watch is already out for parts of the Carolinas.

In addition, there is a tornado risk in the central U.S. On this chart, 5% is a significant number.

In addition there is the possibility of very large hail (hatched) of larger than 2" with the rest of the area having significant probabilities of >1" hail.

Tomorrow


These are the probabilities of any of the three types of severe weather. There is a medium threat from the Twin Cities into northern Wisconsin with a lesser but still elevated possibility into Kansas.

Rest of the Weekend

I believe there is a chance of severe weather from Friday into Monday with the greatest chances on Sunday. I'm going to be updating the blog to keep readers apprised on the threat.

Personal note: This is the 4,000th posting in the history of this blog.