Meteorologists across the U.S. have been noting the very, very different medium range (defined by meteorologists as 5-16 days) forecast being produced by the U.S. and European computer models for the period starting Memorial Day weekend.
Click to enlarge. European model at left, U.S. model at right. 
The forecasts above are valid ten days from now. Consistently, the European model has shown warm, dry weather across the central U.S.

The U.S. model for the last few days has been showing a very wet pattern for the central U.S. the last week of the month and, perhaps, into early June. Storm chasers are drooling over this series of forecasts. Wheat farmers would not be so thrilled as rain could interrupt what could be a very promising wheat harvest.

Generally, the European model is the more accurate. We'll check back in ten days to see which model is correct. Of course, it is possible that neither is correct.


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