This forecast has been updated. Please click here .  The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes and the hatching means that strong tornadoes are possible. I'm providing this "heads up" the day before because we have not had any tornadoes in the region for quite some time.  Of course, it is possible the forecast may be changed in the next 24 hours. I'll post again Monday morning. 

During the past seven days, rains have been heavy in central Iowa. Those heavy rains (orange and red dots) have left the soils saturated.  The forecast for the next seven days is for excessive rains that may exceed 7" in spots (amber) with widespread 5" amounts (orange).  If you live in a flood prone area, now is the time to prepare for the possibility of flooding. 

The most likely area for flooding is the area tinted in blue.  Here are the seven day rainfall amounts as forecast by the NWS. 

Second tornado watch issued.  The area tinted in red has an enhanced risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening.  As of 1:30pm, thunderstorms are forming in Iowa. Please keep an eye on the weather the rest o the afternoon if you live in this area. 

Thunderstorms, currently in progress, are forecast to intensify leading to the likelihood (according to SPC) of tornadoes. In addition, 70 mph winds are forecast along with medium-sized hail. 

Second Tornado Watch First Tornado Watch Tornado watch in effect for "a couple of strong tornadoes" from now until 7pm CDT. It includes the south part of Chicagoland, the Quad Cities and western Indiana. Please monitor the weather the rest of the day! I am providing real-time updated information on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  --- Tornado Forecast Until 7am CDT --- The yellow, hatched area has an  enhanced risk of strong tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The brown area, which includes Chicago and the Quad Cities, has a significant risk of tornadoes. With the 11:10 update, Ft. Madison and Dubuque have been added to the brown area. In the meantime, please make sure your shelter area is cleaned out and read to go with a couple of bottles of water, shoes (if your home is hit you don't want to walk barefoot on debris), and diapers if appropriate.  If you live in a mobile home, it is important to find other shelter. If you do not have friends or family in a nearby conventiona...

A number of counties in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas have been removed from the blizzard warning as the storm is moving northeast.  The color code: Orange = blizzard warning Gold = high wind warning Maroon = red flag warning (wildfire conditions) Pink = winter storm warning  Dark blue = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Brown = high wind watch More than an estimated half million people are without power.  Below is the radar at 4:38p. Blue is the snow falling with the blizzard with the darker blues corresponding to a higher rate of falling snow. Amber is the NWS's tornado watches. 

Can't believe we are forecasting a blizzard again but here we go. The blizzard will affect Interstates 70, 80, 29, 90 and 35. I strong recommend not traveling (we lost ~20 people in multi-car accidents this past Friday) unless it is a genuine emergency. Snow amounts in parts of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska will exceed 6 inches in places.  The color code: Orange = blizzard warning Gold = high wind warning Maroon = red flag warning (wildfire conditions) Pink = winter storm warning  Dark blue = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Brown = high wind watch I believe that blizzard or near blizzard conditions will occur even farther to the southeast, at least as far southeast as Manhattan and Salina and -- perhaps -- Hutchinson in Kansas.  Radar forecast (snow = blue with the heavier rate of snowfall darker blue) for 8am Wednesday. 

The Iowa ice storm is now fully underway. Current NWS Winter Weather Warnings/Advisories Purple is the ice storm warning where power may be lost on a scattered basis. Roads will be extremely hazardous.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory for freezing rain or sleet conditions. Here are general forecasts of ice accumulation.  Radar at 8pm. The areas in pink/salmon color are experiencing freezing rain or freezing drizzle.  Note: this is the last update of the evening. Thank you for reading.  Please bookmark:  https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/  for all kinds of weather and climate-related stories. 

Tornadoes, 2" hail and 75 mph winds are forecast to occur.  Please note that, in addition to tornadoes, the forecast is for 2" hail and wind gusts to 70 mph which have the potential to cause tree damage and power outages.  -- original, and still valid, posting --- The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Please keep up on the weather later today. I will provide an update this afternoon. 

As of 3:30pm, no change to the forecast.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Please keep up on the weather forecasts in this area.  If  thunderstorms develop in the central High Plains, there is a good chance they will cause damaging winds. In the hatched area, there is the risk of wind gusts exceeding 75 mph.  I'll update the forecast this afternoon. 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued Ahead of Squall Line - 11:40pm Severe thunderstorm watch just now issued including Topeka and Kansas City. It warns of 75 mph winds, 2" hail and "a tornado or two." It is in effect until 7am.  A Powerful Squall Line is Moving Southeast at 11:30pm There has been considerable wind damage in the Omaha area. The squall line in central Nebraska will sweep up the storms ahead of it and charge southeast during the night. Power failures likely. Make sure you have some way of getting storm warnings for your area while sleeping.  This is the last update of the night.  -- first update-- I believe the squall line is going to form and move southeast. Damaging winds are quite likely. Right now (9:24pm), the southernmost circled storm has a tornado warning. Please make sure you can get warnings during the night in Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa.  --- original posting --- The pink tint represents severe thunderstorm watches as of 5:30pm. There a...

9:55PM UPDATE Between now and 11pm, wind gusts to 70 mph with power outages are possible north of the pink line.  A tornado cannot be completely ruled out in northern Illinois.  This will be the last update for the night.  Note: At 9:40pm, I believe the threat of tornadoes is over in Wisconsin Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Forecast Updated 7:36p Flood Threat updated at 7pm.  The above is a flash flood forecast for the area outlined in purple. The highest flood risk is outlined in bright red, which corresponds to part of the tornado risk area. If you are concerned about flooding and don't wish to go to the basement if a tornado warning is issued, go to the bathroom or closest on the first floor (not second floor) in the middle of the home.  -- original post, still valid -- The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today (after 12 noon, CDT). Please keep an eye on the weather in these regions.  Also, there is a risk of tornadoes in New England Su...

It looks like tomorrow will be a major tornado and severe thunderstorm day in the Midwest. I recommend people start planning accordingly. There is a high  risk of damaging storms. Tuesday's Tornado Risk There is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes  in the yellow, hatched area. There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area.  Tuesday's Damaging Wind Risk Here is the color code for this forecast: Purple: a high risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. Red, hatched: there is an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Red (only): an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  Yellow: a significant risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  There is also the risk of large hail in the above areas. A derecho may occur. Please factor this forecast into your plans Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Yesterday's forecast , unfortunately, worked out pretty well. It is almost certain there were more tornadoes in Kansas than sh...

While the meteorological road from research to forecasting and warnings is often a bumpy one, we continue to make progress. Here is an example which -- may -- lead to better tornado warnings. Below is a screen capture from a Twitter/X post and video: There was fascinating data from a mobile radar (below). Dr.'s Josh Wurman* and Karen Kosiba intercepted this tornado and were able to set up the radar in time.  The maximum measured winds just above the ground were 224 mph! EF-5 intensity is 200 mph. However,  the official rating may not be that high for the reasons below. While original (superior, in my opinion) Fujita Tornado Intensity scale allowed for measurements of tornadoes, its successor, the 'Enhanced' Fujita Scale (EF), ranks tornadoes solely  by damage.  Example: If, for example, an EF-4 (second highest) tornado's only damage was to a rural barn that would fall apart in 100 mph winds, that tornado will be rated EF-2 rather than its actual intensity which was E...

Tornado watch until 11pm for most of eastern Kansas and parts of northwest Missouri. It does not  include the Greater Kansas City area.  You can follow my real-time storm coverage on Twitter/X at:  @usweatherexpert .  As of 3:28pm, thunderstorms are forming in south central Kansas. Tornado Watch issued until 10pm for Nebraska and Iowa. It includes Lincoln, Omaha and Des Moines and Sioux City.  In addition to tornadoes, please note that thunderstorm-generated winds of 80 mph and tennis ball-sized hail are also forecast to occur.  The NWS just published this graphing depicting how they expect the severe thunderstorms to develop.  The first severe thunderstorms are forecast to occur in the Lincoln-Omaha-Council Bluffs-Atlantic areas.  --- original posting --- The yellow areas has an enhanced  risk of a tornado. The brown area has a significant risk.  There is also an enhanced  risk of hail 2" or larger in the red area. The yellow hatch...

These are radar-derived low-level rotation maps as of 7pm.  Eastern Nebraska, including the Lincoln-West Omaha + Omaha/Eppley Field Storm. Likely long-track tornado from SE Kansas crossing into western Missouri. Below are individual storm reports: