Why You Never See Long Range Forecasts on This Blog

With a hat tip to Joe Bastardi, here is a comparison of January's actual weather to the long-range outlook.
Above is NOAA's temperature forecast for January, 2025, made in mid-December 2024. It called for warmer than average weather over every state except Hawaii. 


As of the 21st, these are the actual temperatures for the 48 states. With the exceptions of California and Maine, the forecast could not be more wrong. 

I have not found any forecasts of more than two weeks to have consistent skill and even those two week forecasts are dicey, especially in the warmer months. 

Our goal is always to provide quality, accurate weather information and while long range forecasts gather clicks, that's now how we wish to grow our blog. 

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