Sunday, May 2, 2021

Why I Am Concerned About the Risk of Tornadoes and Giant Hail in the Southern Plains and Ozarks Monday

Friday, I posted a forecast for Monday (tomorrow) over the southern Great Plains and Ozarks because I thought it might be a "sleeper" event that was, perhaps, being overlooked. 
I continue to have my concern about tomorrow and the geographic positioning hasn't changed very much. 

The forecast weather features for 8pm Monday are depicted below.
Here is a quick description of what you are seeing:
  • L = center of low pressure near Madill, Oklahoma
  • Blue line = cold front 
  • Gold = dry line 
  • Red = warm front
  • Purple = extremely humid and unstable (having the tendency to rise) air ahead of the dry line
Two of the models are depicting the development of thunderstorms in eastern Oklahoma similar to my way of thinking. 
The cluster of thunderstorms in Oklahoma's Green Country are in a position where they could interact with the warm front. If supercells develop in that area, they could provide tornadoes and very large hail.
Other supercells forecast to produce very large hail are within 30 miles or so of Wichita Falls, Texas. 

So, here is a rough, preliminary idea of what is going to occur from Monday afternoon to pre-dawn Tuesday morning. 
West of I-35, the primary threat is large hail, perhaps larger than 2 inches in diameter in some places. 
In Oklahoma east of I-35, there is the risk of tornadoes and large hail. In the Ozarks deeper into the night, the storms should evolve to producing damaging winds, large hail and a couple smaller tornadoes. Keep in mind this is a preliminary forecast and things could shift considerable. 

I will update this forecast midday Monday. Please check back then.

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