Monday, May 3, 2021

Update on Giant Hail and Tornado Risk for East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma

The above area is where there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes and giant hail after 4pm. 
  • L = low pressure system. 
  • Hot pink line = warm front.
  • Blue = cold front 
  • Brown dashes = dry line. 
Currently, there is an area of warm air about 6000 ft above the ground. That is called a "cap" because it is like putting a cap on the atmosphere so thunderstorms cannot form. However, there is evidence the cap is weakening which will allow powerful thunderstorms to develop this evening. 

Here is the forecast radar for 7:30pm. Powerful thunderstorms are forecasted to develop just east of the dry line (see above). 
These storms could produce giant hail (>2") and tornadoes. So, after 4pm, you will want to be monitoring the weather closely from Waco through the DFW Metroplex and across Oklahoma east of I-35 and southeast of I-44. 

Addition, Posted at 3:27pm: NWS Storm Prediction Center pretty much agrees with the above. You can read their discussion, here

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