I am concerned about the potential for flash flooding from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening in the area depicted below. Some areas could receive more than five inches of rain. In addition, tomorrow afternoon and evening, there is a possibility of very large hail and a couple of tornadoes in the yellow, and especially, the yellow/hatched area. So, this weekend will be a good time to keep up on the weather if you live in these areas.

This is correct: there are many ways a properly calibrated thermometer can read too high but none where they can read too low. In this case, ASOS is the weather station where the official Baltimore thermometer resides.

I am delighted to announce that I have donated my meteorological and professional files to Wichita State University.  You can read the details from Wichita State's announcement, here . It is my hope that the data, the journals, and files will be used by future generations to advance atmospheric science and understanding.

I continue to be concerned about the threat of flash flooding in the Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley. I'll be updated on this and the threat of severe thunderstorms in the Great Plains later today when more data is available.

The American Meteorological Society's official statement on global warming states: It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), ...   ...The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions...   So, if the American Meteorological Society believes global warming is major huge problem and that carbon emissions need to be cut, why is it holding its annual conference on radar meteorology -- [drum roll] -- in Japan.  Notice that these meetings are never held in Toledo or Youngstown (cities which could really use the economic boost) but in...

Unfortunately, yesterday's forecasts of flash flooding in southeast Texas and adjacent parts of Louisiana turned out to correct. Three-day totals there, up until noon, have passed 40 inches near Winnie and a couple of other locations. Hat tip: Dr. Ryan Maue Some are saying this flooding, in the Beaumont area, is worse than Hurricane Harvey's. Now, our attention must be refocused. Below is the 3-day rainfall forecast through 7pm Sunday. The remains of Imelda are going slacken in southeast Texas but will produce locally heavy rain near the Oklahoma-Texas border.  The big threat is a stalling front over Kansas and Missouri. Based on comparing patterns with past events, the 5+" over northeast Kansas is likely too conservative. I believe some spots will receive more than 7", especially if we were to extend this forecast to noon Monday. Flash flooding, at least on a localized basis, is quite likely.  UPDATE: 9/19, 5:25pm.. The seven-day rainfall forecast...

Nine days ago, I posted this piece about the absurdities of the TSA . So, now, we have a genuine terrorist attack at a major American airport. And, shock, the TSA had no deterrent effect, let alone catching the guy before the plane left the gate.  Of course, as has occurred elsewhere, we were initially told this wasn't terrorism. From the Miami Herald  on September 5: The reason, according to a criminal complaint filed in Miami federal court: Abdul-Majeed Marouf Ahmed Alani, a veteran employee, was upset over stalled union contract negotiations. R-i-g-h-t. Alani was charged with sabotaging the plane's navigation system. Fortunately, the flight crew aborted the takeoff when something was amiss. Here is the - ahem - revised story today. AMERICAN AIRLINES MECHANIC HAS POSSIBLE ISIS TIES, PROSECUTORS SAY : “Prosecutors presented evidence in court that defendant Abdul-Majeed Marouf Ahmed Alani has a brother in Iraq with potential ties to ISIS and lied about visi...