The BENEFITS of a Major El Nino

Three of thousands of news graphics about the current El Nino.

A record El Nino (an area of warmer than average seawater along the Equator from South America west into the Pacific) is developing. So far, the media -- over and over -- has hyped the effects of the oceanic current. 

But an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society correctly points out there is another side to El Nino occurrences. It looked back on the giant 1997-98 El Nino and tallied up the pluses and minuses. For the United States,

The Negative Costs

• $1.7 billion (not adjusted for inflation to 2026) in losses
• $400 million in federal government relief
• $125 million for state assistance
• $700 million agricultural losses
• $ 70  million losses in sales of snow removal equipment
• $190 million loss to the tourist industry 
• 189 people killed

The Economic Gains

• $6.7 billion, reduced heating costs
• $5.6 billion, increased sales of everything from houses and other goods
• $380 million, reduced snow removal costs
• $6.9 billion, reduced snow-caused flooding losses and no Atlantic hurricanes
• $170 million, reduced operating costs to airlines and trucking industry

In round numbers, the strong El Nino brought a net economic gain of $15 billion; in 2026 dollars it will be around $30 billion dollars. 

As the current El Nino will evidently have no modern precedent, we don't know if it will be a net plus or minus.