Why I Do Not Publish Long Range Forecasts

As many of you know, I specialize in short term (7 days or less) forecasts of extreme weather and its effects. I do not do long range (beyond 10 days) forecasting. Nor do I publish others' forecasts because I cannot find any that have any consistent skill.

This item, published last week, caught my eye. Compare the NOAA temperature forecasts to the actual results. Most are bad to terrible quality.

These are temperature forecasts. The precipitation forecasts are even worse! 

I've also kept track of the accuracy of several other sources of long range forecasts and they aren't any better. This includes The Farmer's Almanac which is consistently awful. 

Wish the results were better. Our society could save a lot of money with accurate long range forecasts.