There was a tornado Thursday in Detroit and the NWS provided about 30 minutes of advance warning. Congratulations on this outstanding performance!

Yet another NWS failure. See yesterday's post about the Joplin Tornado.  It wouldn't surprise me if litigation results from all of this. 

The NWS's job -- and only job -- should be to provide outstanding forecasts and  storm warnings for the public-at-large, which pays their salaries.  With the National Weather Service falling apart , the last thing they should be doing is redeploying meteorologists -- when they are already badly shorthanded -- to World Cup cities to provide weather security for the matches.  Kansas City World Cup ticket prices. These are the  least expensive tickets for each match.  Addition: These are prices for the Denver games. The price is for a pair of tickets. You want to tell me to believe the  organizers cannot afford a few thousand dollars for an  expert commercial meteorological service?! The FIFA (World Cup organizers) should take the revenue from just a few of those tickets and pay a commercial weather company -- which after all specialize in this type of assignment -- to do the weather security. This especially true since NWS meteorologists' training in han...

I want to congratulate the NWS for its high quality forecast and warnings of yesterday's violent tornadoes in the South. Undoubtedly, lives were saved given the severe damage.  Well done!!

Long-time readers will recall our policy of verifying our major storm forecasts, whether they were good or bad.  Sunday, I differed considerably from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center's forecast of where tornadoes were going to occur. So, I posted both forecasts. Above is the 9am forecast from my blog : the NWS's tornado forecast was in brown, mine in red. Hatching meant strong tornadoes were possible, per the NWS. I do not attempt to forecast tornado intensity. Now that the affected NWS offices have completed their storm surveys, the result is below. Updated 9:45am Thursday for two more tornadoes.   There were 12 tornadoes: inverted triangles are their locations. Clearly our forecast was superior as it encompassed all but one of the tornadoes. It did not forecast a large geographic tornado threat area (brown) in western Kansas and northern Oklahoma where no tornadoes occurred. The strongest tornado was one of F-2 intensity which is the lowest threshold...

You have often heard about the issues facing the NWS and NOAA from this blog. As frequent readers know, I am a political conservative.  So, I wanted to bring you the perspective of a former NWS and NOAA employee who is a political liberal. You can read his entire piece here . In addition to the items he cited, for a period a few hours after Alan posted his piece, a number of NOAA web sites were down -- and the problem continues this (Wednesday) morning.  Further, Alan Gerard writes about an NWS office with no way to communicate with the outside world during a severe thunderstorm event earlier this spring: There are definitely increasing concerns about the reliability of the aging NEXRAD fleet, in this case the issues were not with the radar themselves, but apparently with communications lines. The office at Wilmington was without communication for several hours, forcing the NWS office in Cleveland to provide backup services for the incommunicado Wilmington. Cleveland issued se...

One of the three new radar trucks NOAA is putting into the field for the 2026 Vortex Project.  Please note NOAA's photo caption.  So far in 2026, the meteorological community has been roiled by proposed cuts in atmospheric research as well as a proposal by the Trump Administration to disband the National Center for Atmospheric Research. We've written about these several times, the most recent article is here .  Yesterday, a new research program ("Vortex 2026") was announced by the National Severe Storms Laboratory. They are going to put three trucks with multiple mobile radars in the field. They plan to study, in real-time, tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and ... Beyond tornadoes and thunderstorms, the new radars will also support research into other high-impact hazards. In wildfire situations, mobile radars can help monitor smoke plumes, fire-induced winds, and changing weather conditions that affect fire behavior and firefighter safety. During flash-flooding even...

We've had multiple tornado warnings this evening with two in effect now. There is also a tornado watch. Yet all  of the indicated radars are out of service. In my opinion, the NWS is not showing nearly enough urgency to replace the 30+ year old radars that are in service now. These are Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Mansfield. 

The Amazing Forecast Harlem The National Weather Service and the larger meteorological community deserves a great deal of credit for the advance forecast of the blizzard. It undoubtedly saved lives, mitigated inconvenience (flights canceled in advance rather than stranding people at airports), and decreased property losses.  Still, the best forecast cannot make up for utter, tragic incompetence. Roughly, 1.5 million people  (not "customers") are without power at this time. Local media in the Northeast are estimating it will take up to six days to get all of the lights on. Hopefully, the advance forecast urging people to obtain prescription refills, fill gas tanks, et cetera, was helpful and mitigated the effects of the outages.  Global Warming On February 5, I ran this piece: And, this morning, -- more predictably than the weather -- some climate group sent this out: This isn't climate change. It is weather. But science quality doesn't matter when trying to raise fun...

Important note (11:45a Tuesday): A counter-argument for PAR, not based on tornado warnings or weather, is here . It is worth your time. That said, the essay below is still valid.  The protective dome being placed over the Phased Array Radar at the National Severe Storms Laboratory.   Behind the scenes to much of the public, the weather science community has been furious with the Trump Administration's proposed and actual cuts in meteorological research. One of the institutions affected is NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). Surprising, to many, I agree with some of those cuts. The reason is that some of this research has simply not been paying off after years and years of experimentation.  For a quarter-century,  NSSL has been experimenting with Phased Array Radar (PAR) which allows the atmosphere to be scanned more quickly than using a conventional radar. Work began in 2000 and the first real-time data was collected in 2004. One of the selling poi...

It will be important to test your furnace before the cold wave arrives as well as to insure your pets are cared for. There will be quite a bit of snow in the usual "lake effect" areas.  P.S. I note that some NWS products are not available this afternoon. I do not know if it is because of the government shutdown or because of other problems. Companies like AccuWeather are not shut down and will continue to produce their products on their normal schedules. 

Yesterday, a bill was introduced in the House of Representatives by Oklahoma's Rep. Ralph Lucas regarding amendments and additions to the 2017 weather bill that passed Congress. Per the above graphic, it was already passed out of committee. You can find the bill here .  The bill is extremely long and so "I went through it so you don't have to." 😏  Below, you will find brief summaries of the bill's features and my comments about each. Unfortunately, there is nothing about a National Disaster Review Board.  The usual people were writing that this bill would prevent the public from getting public forecasts and storm warnings. Of course, it does the opposite . The very first item is to emphasize the NWS's public safety mission with the emphasis on "public." Agree 100%. The NWS sometimes strays too far from its core mission and I was glad to see that emphasized.  With regard to the above, here are some specific items: There will be research money into ge...

The NOAA/NWS computer modeling used to be #1 in the world. Now, we are distant #4. NOAA is focused on its marine responsibilities and not weather. We would be far better off with the NWS as an independent agency. My recommendations are here . 

I'm pleased to report the House of Representatives has introduced a bi-partisan bill to completely reform FEMA. The details of the changes are  here . On the its logo you see the words, "Department of Homeland Security." That will change if the bill becomes law. FEMA will become an independent, Cabinet-level agency reporting to the President. One item in the bill is money for new headquarters. As I wrote months ago about my reform ideas: I want to thank the team at Rep. Sharice Davids' (D-KS) office for a dialog on the disaster-related issues in our nation and for bringing the proposed FEMA changes to my attention.  As you know, I believe major changes are necessary at the National Weather Service. One of which is cleaving the NWS from NOAA. The new NWS would become an independent agency. Details of my NWS reform plan are  here .  Finally -- and maybe most important -- we  must  have a  National Disaster Review Board  to keep FEMA (old and new), ...

As of 4:10pm MDT, a severe thunderstorm warning is out in Wyoming but the NWS is essentially guessing as both of Wyoming's radars are down and have been since mid-evening yesterday. Warnings are being issued out of the NWS at Billings, MT and Rapid City but they are all essentially flying blind without the radars. The Denver radar can give somewhat of a view in southeast Wyoming but that is about it.  If there were violent tornadoes or flash floods in the center of the state, the NWS would not be able to measure and warn of them.  This happens far too often and it periodically occurs during periods of floods, tornadoes, large hail, etc., as it is today.  As explained many times, the National Weather Service is a mess and was a mess long before President Trump was sworn in. The leadership of NOAA and the NWS seem to be unable to fix it. That is why outside advice and expertise is needed to fix this. 

[This is an update of a Post that appeared in December, 2024] Investigating the 2011 Joplin Tornado An Outline of the National Disaster Review Board Regardless of whether there is an attempt to fix NOAA through incremental improvement  or whether there is a “divorce” of the NWS from NOAA, neither has much of a chance to be successful without a National Disaster Review Board (NDRB) modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Last week's independent report on the NWS's failing tornado warning program only confirms this near certainty.  Accountability is not a natural part of the culture inside the Beltway. The NDRB will be an essential step in that direction.  Regardless of our political preferences and affiliations, I believe most of us can agree on the following: Mega-disasters (i.e., July 4 Texas Hill Country flash flood [likely worst since 1886], Los Angeles wildfire, southern Appalachians floods after Helene, Maui Wildfire, etc.)...

Father Emil Kapaun is in the second step on the (4 step) path to sainthood for  his heroic work caring for prisoners (and the captors!) during the Korean War. In the photo, he is showing off the stem of his pipe which was destroyed when it was shot out of his mouth.  Canonization is the process through which the Catholic Church elevates a person to sainthood. Lately, it seems some in the media are determined to make the pre-DOGE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) into some sort of sainted organization -- when has been anything but. While the Trump Administration is to be commended for nominating a highly qualified person -- Dr. Neil Jacobs --  to head NOAA (still awaiting Senate confirmation), its handling of the DOGE issues has been poor. You can find my thoughts on DOGE and NOAA in this news story from The Dispatch . Among other comments in the article: That said, there are far too many pretending that NOAA and the NWS were somehow sainted organizat...