Thursday, September 19, 2019

Flash Flooding: Texas Threat Decreasing; Great Plains Increasing

Unfortunately, yesterday's forecasts of flash flooding in southeast Texas and adjacent parts of Louisiana turned out to correct. Three-day totals there, up until noon, have passed 40 inches near Winnie and a couple of other locations.
Hat tip: Dr. Ryan Maue
Some are saying this flooding, in the Beaumont area, is worse than Hurricane Harvey's.

Now, our attention must be refocused. Below is the 3-day rainfall forecast through 7pm Sunday.
The remains of Imelda are going slacken in southeast Texas but will produce locally heavy rain near the Oklahoma-Texas border. 

The big threat is a stalling front over Kansas and Missouri. Based on comparing patterns with past events, the 5+" over northeast Kansas is likely too conservative. I believe some spots will receive more than 7", especially if we were to extend this forecast to noon Monday. Flash flooding, at least on a localized basis, is quite likely. 

UPDATE: 9/19, 5:25pm.. The seven-day rainfall forecast (with almost all of it falling in five days) has a small seven inch area in northeast Kansas. 
click to enlarge

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