Hurricane Dorian, 2:45p, Sunday

Now that we have the second strongest hurricane in the recorded meteorological history of the Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico-Carribean Sea region, I wanted to give you an update.

Current Situation

The storm now has sustained winds of 185 mph with gusts to 220 mph. One model has it producing waves of 70 feet! Below are images from the Nassau weather radar and GOES-16 weather satellite as of now.

Any location experiencing this storm, at its current intensity, will experience destruction like that of a major tornado. See table below. Wind force is not linear. The power of the wind increases disproportionately with its speed.


The models are, unfortunately, nudging the path of the storm closer to the east coast of Florida and to the southeast coast in general. Here is the latest ECMWF model's forecast winds. This is an approximation and could shift a bit toward the east or the west.
This forecast shows wind gusts of 50 mph or stronger across a vast area, not to mention storm surge and the effects of huge waves. There are still some reliable models that are forecasting landfall on Florida's Space Coast Tuesday night. If I lived on the coast between Fort Pierce and Palm Coast, I would leave after securing my home and important possessions.

The current NWS NHC forecast (below) is similar to the ECMWF''s (above).
I don't expect it to change much in their 5pm advisory except, perhaps, to nudge it a bit to the west.

I hope to be able to update this evening, but, I am still dealing with a nasty little bug or something.

Addition, 3pm EDT:

Addition, 3:10pm: Dorian as viewed from the West Palm Beach Terminal Doppler Weather Radar.


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